1. The Evolution of Triple Play:
VOIP, IMS, FMC, WiMAX, IPTV
Triple Play Symposium 2006
Dallas, Boston, Paris
Rick Thompson
Senior Analyst, Heavy Reading

2. Heavy Reading Research
Heavy Reading has published numerous research reports, analyzing the current state of the technology & expected market development for topics including IPTV, VOIP, IMS, FMC, Carrier Ethernet, IP DSLAMs, ROADMs, Pseudowires, AdvancedTCA, Next-Gen SONET, etc.
Heavy Reading next-gen broadband/IPTV research 2005 and 2006:
IPTV and the Future of Telecom Video Network Architectures (6/05)
IP DSLAMs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (8/05)
MSAPs: A Heavy Reading Competitive Analysis (10/05)
IP Video and the New Broadband Edge (12/05)
DSL Gateways: Beyond the Router (2/06)
Multimedia Whole-Home Networking: Solving the IPTV Distribution Dilemma (4/06)
The Future of Internet TV: Emerging “Over-the-Top” Internet Video Services (planned Summer 2006)
Heavy Reading conducted interviews with hundreds of technology suppliers, service providers & investors with a direct interest in telecom-related topics.

3. Beyond Triple Play: Flexibility Is the Killer APP
Entertainment
Productivity/Reference
Communications
On-Line Gaming
Downloads
Real-Time Play
Multiplayer Hosting
Security
Anti-Virus
Firewall
SPAM
URL Filtering
Voice (VoIP)
Tiered VPN
Personal Video
Streaming Music
Home Monitoring
Streaming Audio
Radio
Concerts
Info Services
Financial, News, Travel
Fax Services
Instant
Messaging
Video
IP/PC TV
Video on Demand
Pay Per View
Digital Video Recording
Distributed Printing
Photos, Etc.
IPTV alone is not the killer app
Multi-service is critical
Price competition could kill profitability
Providers must find away to differentiate their service long term
Juniper:
Controlling the customer experience is critical across multiple active services to the home
New business models are possible with this control
Video Telephony
Personal Storage
Images, Video, Data
Online Collaboration
Dynamic Bandwidth
Upgrades
Info Services
Sports, Games, Hobbies
Wireless Backhaul

4. Incumbent Dilemmas, 2005 British Telecom Deutsche Telecom
Retail revenues down 2.5%
Retail profits down 10%
Deutsche Telecom
Domestic revenues down 1.6%
Broadband/fixed revenues down 3.6%
France Telecom
Domestic residential revenues down 1.2%
Domestic enterprise revenues down 5.4%
KPN
Fixed network revenues down 4%
Business revenues down 9%

5. Major Themes
VOIP will be the dominant wireline telephony technology within five years– situation is less certain on the wireless side
IMS has won near-universal support among service providers, and is driving RFPs for NGNs
WiFi, WiMax and IP could disrupt the mobile telephony cartel, with major long-term consequences
Multimegabit broadband networks will spread rapidly in the next five years, with telcos moving increasingly to FTTx after 2008
This transition is being driven by the need to provider high-quality video content, including HDTV and online gaming
This in turn is having a major impact on home technologies, where the market is wide open to innovation

6. By 2007, VOIP Will Dominate
Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to VOIP, August Base: 125 Service Providers

7. Mainstream VOIP Is a Reality
Service provider VOIP deployment plans
VOIP versus Internet voice
Source: The Future of VOIP: A Heavy Reading Service Provider Study, September 2005

8. There Are Still Technical Barriers

9. IMS Research Findings
The time period will be the most important period in FMC, IMS and NGN technology and service development.
For service providers, IMS's main appeal is its ability to provide more applications faster and at lower cost.
Fixed/mobile convergence is an important secondary motivator.
Although IMS is seen primarily as a mechanism for deploying revenue-generating applications, there is little agreement about which applications should be deployed first, and this lack of consensus may delay carrier implementations.
IMS is a complex specification, and there are gaps in the standards, especially around policy control and service creation.
There are strong parallels and linkages between IMS and two other emerging industry standardization movements: service delivery platforms and AdvancedTCA.

10. When IMS?
Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider Technology Deployment Plans

11. Why IMS? Layered architecture Access-agnostic IP applications
Separates transport, control and applications
“We can buy best of breed at every layer!”
Access-agnostic
Simpler convergence of fixed and mobile networks
“Services no longer tied to access network technology!”
IP applications
With QoS, security, charging
“A means to fight IP applications leakage to the Internet!”
New kinds of applications
Blended together
“Higher ARPU, lower churn!”
More applications, much more quickly, at much lower cost
But controlled, supplied and billed by service provider
“No need to rely on a few killer apps!”

12. Apps and Services Drive IMS
Source: Heavy Reading 2006 Survey of Service Provider Plans for IMS. Base: 93 Service Providers

13. Service Providers Buy The FMC Vision
Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to Fixed-Mobile Convergence, November Base: 109 Service Providers

14. Expect FMC to Transform the Industry
Source: Heavy Reading Survey of Service Provider Attitudes to Fixed-Mobile Convergence, November Base: 109 Service Providers

15. FMC Is A Higher Priority For European Service Providers

16. Obstacles To FMC Progress
Source: Heavy Reading Fall 2005 Survey of Service Provider Technology Deployment Plans

17. WiMAX Deployment Plans
Network operators are overwhelmingly positive about the impact WiMax will have on networks
WiMax enthusiasm cuts across all types of carriers and across all geographic regions
The next 12 to 18 months will be critical in determining carrier investment in WiMax
More than 80 percent of survey respondents expect to see WiMax deployments by the end of 2007
Network operators are surprisingly open to deploying WiMax using unlicensed spectrum, but interest in pre-standard WiMax products is slight
Carriers expect to use WiMax to bolster delivery of voice, data, and even triple-play services, but there’s less interest in WiMax for wireless backhaul
Only 2% said it was more hype than hope
Positive attitudes toward WiMax and its role in telecom networks cut across all service provider types. Long distance carriers were most positive, and carriers in AsiaPac
Less than 10% going with pre-certified ie pre-Wimax products
Almost one-third said definitely or probably use unlicensed spectrum
Alvarion has established a clear lead with Intel the lead evangelizer

18. WiMAX Product Maturity
In total, 262 service provider professionals, representing more than 175 different wireless and wireline network operators worldwide, participated in the Heavy Reading survey.

19. WiMAX Deployment Plans

20. Mobile or Fixed WiMAX?

21. Mobile WiMAX
The first Mobile WiMax services will launch in Korea in mid 2006, using Samsung equipment; U.S. service launches will follow, possibly as soon as 2007
Stealth chipset startups are attempting to leapfrog the market and go directly to Mobile WiMax; names in the frame include Beecem, SiWave, Cygnus, Runcom
Adaptix claims to have already demonstrated system-level mobility based on scaleable OFDMA
A market for e line cards and software will emerge alongside demand for smart antenna software suites, as major fabs and OEMs catch on to Mobile WiMax's potential
Initial services will offer handoff performance suitable for data, but unsuitable for VOIP services
Vendors developing Mobile WiMax systems have got a lot prove. So far, the technology is largely restricted to the lab and the standards-making bodies, and there are very few, if any, examples of system-level deployments. At a strategic level, the challenge is to position Mobile WiMax between wireless LAN, Fixed WiMax, and 3G cellular.
In our view, therefore, the major market opportunity is for low-mobility, high-speed services. In this scenario, the user device would be a laptop or, possibly, a PDA. Coverage would be in a metro hotzone, suburb, or other well-bounded area, and users would be able to move between islands of coverage with a single account. Apart from rare exceptions (Korea), we don't expect to see nationwide, or even many city-wide, Mobile WiMax networks rolled out for mass-market services in either the near- or medium-term.
The reason for this is that WiMax can best compete against cellular on data rate and price per bit, but not on mobile voice or coverage. As a result, handover between cells will be viewed as more luxury than necessity in most network deployments.
Another reason to sacrifice mobility in favor of throughput is so that the same network infrastructure can efficiently support both fixed and portable customers – because, as noted, many of the enhancements in e also apply to fixed usage. Supporting both types of customer on one network vastly enhances the business case for network rollout.
Furthermore, by the time Mobile WiMax is commercialized, it will be competing with enhanced 3G systems and will face a market-positioning battle with the next generation of cellular radio interfaces – and that's a roadmap expected to steal some of Mobile WiMax's best tricks.
The conclusion, then, is that for all its promise, Mobile WiMax will have difficulty finding a market big enough to generate the economies of scale that will permit it to truly thrive.

22. IPTV: Telecom Meets Entertainment
TV delivery is moving from HFC-based broadcast to IP-based multicast/unicast
Telcos: IPTV, Telco TV, Telco Video (different names, same thing)
MSOs: SDV initiatives; NGNA (many IPTV-like concepts)
“Internet TV” is organically evolving in parallel
Google, Yahoo, Apple, YouTube, MLB.com, major broadcast channels, etc.
Technology platforms: Brightcove, Narrowstep, thePlatform, Veoh, etc.
Network technologies: DPI, Policy Control, granular QoS
Video search engines, P2P video file sharing, etc.
Competitive or complimentary to IPTV?
Regardless of the model, multimedia content is driving telecom
Wireline
Wireless

23. Technology Shifts Impacting Market Evolution
Compression & format: MPEG2  MPEG4; SD  HD
More channels, lower bit rates
Access network: Mbit/s  Mbit/s; ATM  Ethernet/IP
Combination xDSL/FTTx
Aggregation network: ATM  GigE/10GigE, IP multicast, QOS
Right amount of aggregation layer intelligence?
IP edge: High density/capacity, Ethernet-centric, per-service QOS, unicast/multicast scale, integrated B-RAS, high-availability edge
Transport network: static/legacy  reconfigurable/multiservice
Services evolve: Broadcast TV  VOD  PVR/nPVR  integrated & interactive services
Mobile & IMS?
Internet TV?

24. IPTV Market Evolution IPTV Inflection Points Integrated Services
Subscriber Scale
Integrated Services
Integrated Communication,
Information, Entertainment
Focus on scaling number of IPTV subscribers and introducing “integrated services.” Also includes potential IMS Integration.
Phase III: 2008 – Service Differentiation
Basic Broadcast TV
(IP Multicast)
Initial,
Limited VOD
Focus on initial network & service layer infrastructure. Modest, controlled service rollouts. Basic service offerings.
Phase I:
Technical Viability
PVR, nPVR
MPEG-4 HD
Portfolio Expansion:
More HD, VOD, PVR
Focus on service assurance and QoE for existing services and continue adding new services: enhanced channel package, additional HD content, additional VOD content, subscription VOD, time-shifting.
Phase II: 2006 – 2007
Quality of Experience
Multicast to Unicast Service Mix

25. End-to-End IPTV: A Brief Overview
Content Owner/Aggregator
Residential Subscriber
TELECOM OPERATOR
Video
Content Acquisition
National Video Head-End Office
Broadband Routing
Network Infrastructure
Broadband Aggregation
Network Infrastructure
Broadband Access
Network Infrastructure
Multimedia Home Network
End-to-End Policy Control
VoIP
DSLAM
IP STB
Super Head-End Office
(SHO)
Video Hub Office
(VHO)
Video Serving Office
(VSO)
Content Providers RG
Copper PC
Broadcast Video
Head-End System
Fiber
20th Century Fox
General Electric
News Corp.
Sony
Time Warner
Viacom
Walt Disney
Etc.
Edge Router/
B-RAS
Gigabit Ethernet
Aggregation
OLT/ONU
Core Router an/.or Edge Router/
B-RAS
ONT
Edge Encoders
Middleware,
CA/DRM
VOD Server
Complex
Regional/LH Transport
Metro Transport
OLT
ONU
Live and On Demand Content Acquired From Multiple Satellite and Terrestrial Broadcast Programming Sources.
Redundant National SHOs Ingest & Distribute IP-based Video Content. Centralized VOD Libraries May Exist.
Numerous Regional VHOs Receive National Content from SHOs and Ingest & Distribute Regional Content and IP VOD.
Local VSOs Receive & Distribute Content from Upstream. Local Channels and Distributed VOD Also Served From VSO.
Various Copper- and Fiber-based Access Networks In Place To Deliver IPTV to the Residential Subscriber.
SP Controlled Subscriber Premise: ONT/NID, Residential Gateway, IP STB/DVR, PC, VoIP, In-Home Distribution Network

26. IPTV Bandwidth Requirements
Video
IPTV with MPEG2 compression
Standard Definition 3.5Mbps
High Definition 19.3Mbps
IPTV with MPEG4 compression
Standard Definition 2.0Mbps
High Definition 8.0Mbps

27. Centralized Architectures?
Broadband
Access Network
Broadband
Aggregation Network
Broadband
Edge Network
Policy Control Server
Residential
Gateway
Broadband Aggregation
Switches/Routers
IP/MPLS Core
Voice
B’cast Video
Broadband
Access
Nodes
n Homes
VOD
Broadband Edge Router
HSI

28. Distributed Architectures?
Broadband
Access Network
Broadband
Aggregation Network
Broadband
Edge Network
Residential
Gateway
Broadband Aggregation
Switches/Routers
Policy Control Server
IP/MPLS Core
Voice
B’cast Video
n Homes
Broadband Access
Nodes
VOD
Broadband Edge Router
HSI
Regional/Local
Video Content

29. Network Dimensioning Is Critical
Broadband
Access
Aggregation
Edge
Residential
Gateway
n Homes
Nodes
GigE/10GigE Aggregation
Switches/Routers
Router
Centralized Policy Management
Video CAC
Topology Intelligence
Quality Measurement
Voice
Distributed Policy Enforcement
Regional/Local
Video Content
B’cast Video
VOD
HSI 1 2 3 4
VoIP
IPTV
First Mile:
Aggregate
bandwidth
needed for
all services
B’cast
Second Mile:
Concurrent VOD sessions
Non-blocking
Multicast TV channels
Third Mile:
Max. concurrent
VoD sessions
Fourth Mile:
Link bandwidth equals server capacity
VOD controller limits total amount of streams

30. QOE Measurement Accurate measurement of: Overall video service quality
Is essential to:
Monitor SLAs and troubleshoot issues
Dimension capacity and tune VoD CAC
Accurate measurement of:
Overall video service quality
Usage per channel and viewer density
VoD concurrency, channel changes
User Quality of Experience

31. “IPTV2”: SureWest Improved integration Emerging standards
Next-Gen STBs
Improved compression
Improved QoS
Improved security
Interactive features

32. IPTV Work in Progress Home networking solutions Next-Gen STBs Content
Ability to utilize existing home wiring
Wireless
Next-Gen STBs
SD, HD, PVR, Gateways
Content
Interactive applications

33. Multimedia Home Networking Taxonomy
Remote
Mgmt.
TR-069: WAN-side CPE Mgmt
WT-135: STB
Object model
WT-111: Remote Mgmt of home devices (TR-069 pass-thru)
TR-064: LAN side CPE Mgmt
User
Interface
Multimedia CPE UI Technologies: IPTV Browser, EPG, TV/PC Web Browser, Video Search and Navigation
Network Connected Multimedia CPE: IP STB, DVR, Home Gateway, Media Bridges, PC/Laptop, Media Server, Gaming Console, Etc.
(Other Critical Technologies: MPEG-4 Decoders, DRM S/W)
Home
Devices
HPNAv3
MoCA
Proprietary
Standard/
Technology
IEEE
802.3
HomePlug AV
Proprietary (UPA)
IEEE
802.11x
HPNAv3
Ethernet
Cable
(CAT-5,6)
Coaxial
Cable
(RG6, RG59)
Physical
Medium
Twisted Pair
Phoneline
Electrical
Powerline
Air
Access
Network
Copper and/or Fiber Infrastructure: ADSL2plus, VDSL2, FTTx
(Home Networking WAN Interfaces Integrated into NID and/or ONT)

34. Thank You!
Q&A