1. Problem Analysis How to Identify the Focal Problem

2. Project defined….
An intervention to create positive change in an existing situation

3. What is a Problem Negative condition
Specific and clear situation (can not be generic) which hinders/prevents the achievement/realization of desired positive change
Owned by a specific group/stakeholder (whose problem is it?)

4. Understanding the Problem
Need to avoid:
Proceeding with limited information
Diagnosis without participation
Jumping to conclusions
Instant prescriptions and solutions
We should:
Maximize participation and ownership of the analysis
Move to a common acceptance of the problem

5. Problem Analysis Problems Analysis visually represents the causes
and effects of existing problems in the project area, in the form of a
Problem Tree.
It clarifies the relationships among the identified problems.

6. Problem Tree Analysis - What
A diagnostic tool to
Analyse the existing situation surrounding a given problem context
Identify major problems associated with the stated negative condition
Recognize cause-effect relationships in a simple, transparent way that is easy for any layperson to follow

7. Problem Tree Analysis - How
Six Steps – Negative conditions, specific and clear
Decide on starter (focal or core) problem and place in center
Place problems that are direct causes under starter, 1 card per problem
Repeat – add direct causes for previous level of problems, until root problem is reached
Above starter problem place direct effects
Repeat – adding direct effects for previous level
Refine - Analyze cause-effect relationships, move cards around as needed

8. Examples in Stating Problems
Rural road maintenance by district road authorities does not meet national quality standards
better than
Poor quality of road maintenance
Rural people do not have access to financial services
better than
Lack of bank branches in rural areas
Travel in rural areas of the district is time-consuming, uncomfortable, and expensive
better than
Poor people do not use roads

9. Developing a Problem Tree
Effects of the Focal Problem
Focal/Starter/Core problem
Identify a focal problem
Place the direct effects above
Place the causes below
Extend as far as possible
Causes of the Focal Problem

10. How to Build the Problem Tree
Starter Problem
Public transport unreliable & unsafe
WHY?
Looking from the top, down, there could be many paths of causes

11. How to Build the Problem Tree
Public transport unreliable & unsafe
Frequent delays
WHY?
Start by tracing one problem path down to its causes

12. How to Build the Problem Tree
Public transport unreliable & unsafe
Frequent delays
Bus fleet in poor condition
Problem could have different contributory causes
WHY?

13. Other reasons why? Work at lower levels to further refine cause-effect
Public transport unreliable & unsafe
Other reasons
why?
Frequent delays
Work at
lower
levels to
further refine
cause-effect
links
Bus fleet in poor condition
Poor bus maintenance
Buses are old
Mechanics poorly skilled in maintenance
Lack of spare parts
No investment
in new buses

14. Public transport unreliable & unsafe
Demand for SBC services declining
(less people use bus)
And so what?
Effects
Public transport unreliable & unsafe
Frequent bus accidents
Frequent delays
Roads in poor condition
Bus fleet in poor condition
Poor bus maintenance
Buses are old
Mechanics poorly skilled in maintenance
Lack of spare parts
No investment
in new buses

15. SBC public transport service is unreliable and unsafe
Problem Tree:
Public Transport
Increased traffic congestion
Increased pollution
Increased per capita transport costs
Drastic increase of private cars
Demand for SBC services declining
Development
(Focal/Core/Starter)
Problem
SBC public transport service is unreliable and unsafe
Frequent delays
Frequent bus accidents
Roads in poor condition
SBC – Safari Bus Company
Frequent break-down of buses
Drivers have poor driving skills
Inadequate traffic management
Small budget for maintenance
Bus fleet is in poor condition
No minimum driving skills required
Policy overwhelmed with increased traffic
City Council different priorities
Poor bus maintenance
Buses are old
Lack of spare parts
Poorly skilled bus mechanics
No investment budget
Import restrictions
No skills training and testing
SBC runs operating loss
Fares only cover 75% of operating budget

16. Problem Tree Analysis - Avoid
“Lack of” problems – ex. funds. Specify what problems arise because of lack of funds
Too general – ex. corruption. Specify systems and conditions that divert funds
Solutions phrased as problems – ex. no training. Specify negative condition only
Grouping cause and effect together – only one level per problem
Indirect cause and effect linkages – only close and direct linkages
Anticipating future problems – only current problems

17. 1. “Lack of” problems 2. Too general
Lack of rational policy and poor institutional framework
Lack of intermodal strategic urban transport planning
2. Too general
Financing gap
Deteriorated assets
Declining urban environment and living conditions

18. 3. Solutions phrased as problems
Poor planning, absence of urban renewal strategy, sector master plans and supporting legislations
4. Grouping cause and effect together
Flooding, water borne diseases, restricted mobility, low productivity and increase in urban poverty
Environmental degradation, ground water depletion and water contamination
Poor urban infrastructure and services

19. 5. Indirect cause and effect linkages
Old and inadequate infrastructure
Reduced economic growth
Poor sector governance
Unwillingness of government to firmly enforce standards and tariffs
Insufficient urban services coverage
Inadequate urban planning, integrated transport system development and market logistics facilities
Strong and rapid urbanization with high congestion of road network
Lack of rational policy and poor institutional framework
6. Anticipating Future Problems
Budget cuts for Road maintenance in 2017

20. Using Cards Write your statement on a card
Write only one idea on a card
Express your statement in a concise sentence using no more then 3 lines
Make your sentence specific.
Stick to the facts and avoid abstractions and generalizations

22. The End