1. Let’s Review: What are the four factors that affect populations?

2. The study of human population dynamics: Demography
How has the human population changed over time?
Why do population growth rates vary in countries throughout the world?
What is the ‘demographic transition’ and why should I care?
The million dollar question:What is the ‘carrying capacity’ of the biosphere for humans?

3. Modelling human populations is important!

5. How long has Homo sapiens inhabited the planet?
Follow the timeline of human evolution here...
Homo Sapiens arrives 195,000 years ago
‘Agriculture’ begins 10,000 years ago
Bronze Age: 5,000 years ago…

6. Global rate of population growth is now 1 billion/ 13 years.
Until the 1800s the world's population grew slowly for thousands of years.
1820: 1 billion.
1970: 3 billion.
1999: 6 billion
Global rate of population growth is now 1 billion/ 13 years.

8. Historical Overview Human Population growth
200 years of history in 4 minutes

10. High mortality rate Short life span
Limiting Factors which maintained the prolonged lag phase for the human race
Disease
Primitive medical knowledge
Primitive insulation
Poor nutrition
Primitive agricultural techniques
Lack of sanitation
High mortality rate
Short life span

11. Watch this video and write down the reasons for the growth in the world’s population
BBC report on the 7th Billion...

12. Reasons for rapid growth since 1820
Industrial revolution
Progress in agricultural techniques – including Haber Process for Nitrogen fixation
Improved sanitation
Improved health care and medical knowledge
More reliable, stable food supply
Increased survival to reproductive age

13. Human Population Dynamic predictions
Here are the United Nations Predictions for population change over the next 100 yearsUN World population prospects
(Image:

14. When modelling human population dynamics, we commonly include:
Birth rate (2012 global mean is 19.5/1000, cf in 2007)
Death rate (current ‘crude’ mortality rate is 8.37/1000)
Age structure of the population : WHY?
Migration

15. Birth/Death Rates
For as long as birth rate outstrips death rates, the human race will continue to grow in size..

16. How does population growth vary in the world

17. Most population growth in the world is contributed by only 10 countries, with China and India leading

18. Developing countries account for 97% of global population growth

19. Global migration

20. Population (age-structure) profiles

21. let's look at population pyramids!
Demographers predict future growth using models called ‘pyramids’/age-structure diagrams
let's look at population pyramids!

22. Population pyramids: Developing Countries
Developing countries typically have pyramid-shaped age pyramids, with high numbers of young, and relatively youthful age structures
High infant mortality rates
High (but decreasing) death rate

23. Population pyramids: Developed countries
Low infant mortality
Low death rate
High proportion of population is over 60 years old

24. The Demographic Transition model

25. The Demographic Transition Model
A 5 – stage model used to predict population dynamics as a country shifts from being a pre-industrial to an industrialised economic system

26. Demographic transition in a nutshell…
Changes brought about by industrialisation, modernisation, lower the death rate
Births greatly exceed deaths, resulting in rapid population increases (Stages 1,2)
As modernisation increases, the birth rate falls and population growth decreases (stage 3)
Birthrate falls to meet the death rate, and population growth stops (Stage 4,5)

28. Stage 1 High birth and high death rates
Population size correlates highly with food supply
‘Pre-industrial’
(no countries are Stage 1 – few isolated communities…)

29. Mozambique, 2000: Stage 1 of the demographic transition model

30. Stage 2
Stable food supply and sanitation lead to huge drop in death rate
Birth rates remain high
Huge population increase

31. Mozambique, 2025: Stage 2 of the demographic transition model

32. Other countries currently in Stage 2 of the demographic transition
Most ‘developing’ countries are in Stage 2:
Much of South Saharan Africa *(except South Africa, Kenya, Botswana, Namibia, Ghana)
Yemen
Bhutan
Laos

33. Stage 3
Birth rates start to fall as contraception is made available and fewer children needed to work
Death rates still falling
Population continues to rise

34. Countries in Stage 3
Countries in Stage 3

35. Stage 4
Total population high but balanced by low birth rate and low mortality
Desire for smaller families
Fertility rate may drop < 2.1
Population size stabilises

36. UK, 2000: Stage 4 of demographic transition

37. Other countries in Stage 4
Most wealthy countries are in Stage 4
Western Europe
USA
Canada
Australia
New Zealand
South Korea
Singapore

38. Stage 5 VERY low birth rate Low death rate
Total population slowly decreasing
Desire for smaller families
People have children later in life

39. UK, 2025: Stage 5 of demographic transition
UK in future
Germany
Japan
Russia has lost 5.7 M since the breakup of the Soviet Union

40. Where is your country?
Learning about the 'New Demography'

41. What does human demography mean for the future of our planet?
Will today’s emerging nations pass through the demographic transition?
Do you believe that national governments should implement policies, subsidies, or other programs to reduce birth rates?
UN data...

42. Is population growth really a problem?
Some say NO:
People can find or manufacture additional resources to keep pace with population growth.
Nations become stronger as their populations grow.
Some say YES:
Not all resources can be replaced.
Even if they could, quality of life suffers.
Nations do not become stronger as their populations grow.