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Chapter 12: Inference about a Population Lecture 6b

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1 Chapter 12: Inference about a Population Lecture 6b
Instructor: Naveen Abedin

2 THE CHI-SQUARE DISTRIBUTION
Definition The chi-square distribution has only one parameter called the degrees of freedom. The shape of a chi-squared distribution curve is skewed to the right for small df and becomes symmetric for large df. The entire chi-square distribution curve lies to the right of the vertical axis. The chi-square distribution assumes nonnegative values only, and these are denoted by the symbol χ2 (read as “chi-square”). Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

3 Three chi-square distribution curves.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

4 Example 1 Find the value of χ² for 7 degrees of freedom and an area of .10 in the right tail of the chi-square distribution curve. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

5 χ2 for df = 7 and .10 Area in the Right Tail
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

6 Figure 1 Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

7 Example 2 Find the value of χ² for 12 degrees of freedom and an area of .05 in the left tail of the chi-square distribution curve. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

8 Area in the right tail = 1 – Area in the left tail = 1 – .05 = .95
Example 2: Solution Area in the right tail = 1 – Area in the left tail = 1 – .05 = .95 Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

9 Table 11.2 χ2 for df = 12 and .95 Area in the Right Tail
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

10 Figure 11.3 Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

11 Inferences about Population Variance
Population mean measures the population’s centrality, while population variance measures the variability that exists in the population. If we are interested in investigating the variability in population, we have to investigate As in most real world cases, the population variance is unknown. This means we need to estimate this value from sample variance. Variance is associated with the words variability, risk, consistency Variance is a measure of risk, and it is favorable to keep this value small Variance is also important to check for consistency, e.g. consistency of product quality can be ensured through consistency in the production process. So if the production process has a low variance then we can ensure quality is consistent.

12 Inferences about Population Variance (cont.)
sample variance is considered as the best estimator of population variance because the sample variance is an unbiased and consistent estimator of population variance. The chi-squared statistic can be used to make estimations about the population variance, at n – 1 degrees of freedom

13 Inferences about Population Variance (cont.)
Confidence interval of chi-squared statistic:

14 Example 2

15 Inferences about Population Variance (cont.)

16 Example 3 You have taken a random sample of 25 boxes of Brand A cereal, and hypothesized that the standard deviation has changed from the previously published level of 15 grams. The standard deviation of your sample is Test your theory at 5% level of significance.

17 Example 4 In a July 23, 2009, Harris Interactive Poll, 1015 advertisers were asked about their opinions of Twitter. The percentage distribution of their responses is shown in the following table. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

18 Example 4 Assume that these percentage hold true for the 2009 population of advertisers. Recently 800 randomly selected advertisers were asked the same question. The following table lists the number of advertisers in this sample who gave each response. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

19 Example 4 Test at the 2.5% level of significance whether the current distribution of opinions is different from that for 2009. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

20 Example 4: Solution Step 1:
H0 : The current percentage distribution of opinions is the same as for 2009. H1 : The current percentage distribution of opinions is different from that for 2009. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

21 We use the chi-square distribution to make this test.
Example 4: Solution Step 2: There are 4 categories 5 days on opinion Multinomial experiment We use the chi-square distribution to make this test. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

22 Area in the right tail = α = .025 k = number of categories = 4
Example 4: Solution Step 3: Area in the right tail = α = .025 k = number of categories = 4 df = k – 1 = 4 – 1 = 3 The critical value of χ2 = 9.348 Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

23 Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

24 Calculating the Value of the Test Statistic
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

25 Example 4: Solution Step 4:
All the required calculations to find the value of the test statistic χ2 are shown in Table 11.4. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

26 Hence, we fail to reject the null hypothesis
Example 4: Solution Step 5: The value of the test statistic χ2 = is smaller than the critical value of χ2 = 9.348 It falls in the nonrejection region Hence, we fail to reject the null hypothesis We state that the current percentage distribution of opinions is the same as for 2009. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

27 Example 5 A researcher wanted to study the relationship between gender and owning cell phones. She took a sample of 2000 adults and obtained the information given in the following table. At the 5% level of significance, can you conclude that gender and owning cell phones are related for all adults? Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

28 H0: Gender and owning a cell phone are not related
Example 5: Solution Step 1: H0: Gender and owning a cell phone are not related H1: Gender and owning a cell phone are related Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

29 We are performing a test of independence
Example 5: Solution Step 2: We are performing a test of independence We use the chi-square distribution Step 3: α = .05. df = (R – 1)(C – 1) = (2 – 1)(2 – 1) = 1 The critical value of χ2 = 3.841 Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

30 Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

31 Observed and Expected Frequencies
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

32 Example 5: Solution Step 4:
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

33 The value of the test statistic χ2 = 21.445
Example 5: Solution Step 5: The value of the test statistic χ2 = It is larger than the critical value of χ2 = 3.841 It falls in the rejection region Hence, we reject the null hypothesis Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

34 Example 6 Consider the data on income distributions for households in California and Wisconsin given in Table Using the 2.5% significance level, test the null hypothesis that the distribution of households with regard to income levels is similar (homogeneous) for the two states. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

35 Table 11.10 Observed Frequencies
Example 6 Table Observed Frequencies Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

36 Example 6: Solution Step 1:
H0: The proportions of households that belong to different income groups are the same in both states H1: The proportions of households that belong to different income groups are not the same in both states Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

37 Step 2: We use the chi-square distribution to make a homogeneity test.
Example 6: Solution Step 2: We use the chi-square distribution to make a homogeneity test. Step 3: α = .025 df = (R – 1)(C – 1) = (3 – 1)(2 – 1) = 2 The critical value of χ2 = 7.378 Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

38 Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

39 Observed and Expected Frequencies
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

40 Example 6: Solution Step 4:
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved

41 The value of the test statistic χ2 = 4.339
Example 6: Solution Step 5: The value of the test statistic χ2 = 4.339 It is less than the critical value of χ2 It falls in the nonrejection region Hence, we fail to reject the null hypothesis We state that the distribution of households with regard to income appears to be similar (homogeneous) in California and Wisconsin. Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved


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