Permiresimi i vendimmarrjes

Permiresimi i vendimmarrjes
Leksioni 12 Permiresimi i vendimmarrjes VIDEOT Rasti 1: Antivia: Community-based Collaborative Business Intelligence Rasti 2: IBM and Cognos: Business Intelligence and Analytics for Improved Decision Making

Kapitulli 12: Permiresimi i vendimmarrjes
Qellimi dhe objektivat e leksionit Cilat jane llojet e ndryshme te vendimeve dhe si funksionon procesi i vendimmarrjes Si mbeshtesin sistemet e informacionit aktivitet e menaxhereve dhe vendimmarrjen manaxheriale Si mbeshtet inteligjenca e biznesit dhe analitika e biznesit vendimmarrjen? Si perdoret inteligjenca e biznesit ne vendimmarrje brenda nje organizate Si sistemet e informacionit kontribuojne ne vendimmarrje efektive gjate punes ne grup This chapter focuses on the information systems that support decision-making in a firm and discusses the value of improved decision-making in an organization. Ask the students to describe different types of decisions and whether some types of decisions are less valuable than others. What types of decisions, in a work framework, have students encountered in their own employment situations? Ask students to describe some of the decisions they made on their last job. How did they use information systems to help make those decisions? © Prentice Hall 2011

Rritje e shitjeve dhe permiresim i vendimmarrjes
Kapitulli 12: Permiresimi i vendimmarrjes Cfare te shesesh dhe me cfare cmimi, konsulto te dhenat Problemi: Bizneset e retail duan te percaktojne cmimet e ndryshme me te cilat produktet shiten ne vende te ndryshme Zgjidhja: Software per analitike biznesi qe identifikon ngjashmeri ne te dhenat e shitjeve, krijon profile cmimesh dhe klientesh per rajone te ndryshme, madje dhe per orare te caktuara gjate dites Rritje e shitjeve dhe permiresim i vendimmarrjes This slide discusses the chapter opening case on the use of business analytics software by major retailers to find patterns in sales data and improve product offerings and price points to improve sales and profitability. The case offers the example of Flowers use of analytics software from SAS Inc. to record and analyze buyer profiles to help improve targeting of its product, determine what “specials” to offer, plan sales and marketing strategies, and ultimately improve the conversion rate of browsers to buyers by 20 percent. Ask students if they have noticed day-to-day (or faster) variations in prices on Internet goods. Do prices change ever that quickly at “bricks and mortar” stores? © Prentice Hall 2011

Vendimmarrja dhe Sistemet e Informacionit Vlera ekonomike e permiresimit te vendimmarrjes Permiresimi i shume vendimeve “te vogla” rezulton ne vlera te medha vjetore per biznesin Llojet e vendimeve: Te pastrukturuara: Vendimmarresi duhet te jete i afte te gjykoje, vleresoje dhe te identifikoje zgjidhjet e problemit Te strukturuara: Perseritese dhe rutine; procedura te parapercaktuara veprimi; nuk konsiderohen cdo here si te reja Te gjysemstrukturuara: vetem nje pjese e problemit ka pergjigje te qarte This slide discusses the importance of improved decision-making and describes the three types of decisions that are made in an organization. Table 12-1 in the text illustrates how a small decision made hundreds of times a year can be just as valuable as a single decision made once a year. For example, the decision to schedule production to fill orders, made 150 times a year, with a value of $10,000 if this decision is improved, can mean an annual value of $1.5 million. The different levels in an organization tend to make different types of decisions, and require different types of support to make these decisions. Ask students to provide examples of each type of decision. Give students examples of decisions and ask what category the decision fall into and why. © Prentice Hall 2011

Vendimmarrja dhe Sistemet e Informacionit Menaxheret Senior: Marrin shume vendime te pastrukturuara P.sh: a duhet te hyme ne nje treg te ri? Menaxheret e mesem: Marrim me shume vendime te strukturuara por qe mund te permbajne dhe komponente te pastrukturuara P.sh: Pse raporti i permbushjes se porosise po tregon renie ne nje treg/zone te caktuar Menaxheret operacional dhe punonjesit dokumentues Marrin me shume vendime te strukturuara P.sh: I ploteson klienti kushtet per te marre kredi? This slide describes the types of decisions being made at the different levels within an organization. Semi-structured decisions contain a portion that is unstructured and a portion that is structured. Which portion, of the example question for middle managers, is structured and which is unstructured? What would make this question a fully structured question? Ask students to come up with additional examples of decisions at the executive, middle management, and operational levels of the organization, for companies they have worked for. © Prentice Hall 2011

Vendimmarrja dhe Sistemet e Informacionit Kerkesat per informacion te grupeve kryesore vendimmarrese ne nje kompani This figure provides an illustration of how the nature of decision making changes as you move up, and down, the corporate hierarchy. There are of course exceptions. Some senior managers like to take a hands-on approach to daily operations. GRAFIKU 12-1 Menaxheret Senior, menaxheret e mesem, menaxheret operacional dhe punonjesit kane lloje te ndryshme vendimesh dhe kerkese ndaj informacionit © Prentice Hall 2011

Vendimmarrja dhe Sistemet e Informacionit 4 Fazat e procesit te vendimmarrjes Inteligjenca Zbulimi, identifikimi dhe kuptimi i problemeve brenda nje organizate Dizenjoja Identifikimi dhe eksplorimi i zgjidhjeve te nje problemi Zgjedhja Perzgjedhja e alternativave zgjidhese Implementimi Berja funksionale e alternatives se zgjedhur dhe vazhdimi i monitorimit si funksionon zgjidhja e implementuar This slide describes the process of decision-making as a series of four stages. It is important to note that if an implemented solution doesn’t work, the decider can return to an earlier stage in the process and repeat as needed. Give the students an example decision, such as, “What college should I apply to?” and ask them to describe the actions taken at each of the four stages. © Prentice Hall 2011

Vendimmarrja dhe Sistemet e Informacionit FAZAT E VENDIMMARRJES Procesi i vendimmarrjes i ndare ne 4 faza. Grafiku 12-2 This graphic illustrates the four stages of decision making introduced in the previous slide, emphasizing that steps can be repeated as needed, depending on the outcome at each stage. P.sh: Vendimi “ta besh apo ta blesh” © Prentice Hall 2011

Vendimmarrja dhe Sistemet e Informacionit Sistemet e informacionit mund te asistojne vetem ne disa ceshtje administrative Modeli klasik i menaxhimit: 5 funksione Planifikim, organizim, koordinim, vendimmarrje dhe kontroll Modele sjelljesh me bashkekohore Sjellja aktuale e menaxhereve shfaqet me pak sistematike, me informale, me pak reflektuese, me reaktive dhe me pak e mireorganizuar se ne modelin klasik. This slide discusses the idea that, while information systems can assist in making decisions by providing information and tools for analysis, they cannot always improve on decisions being made. Ask the students to provide examples of decisions that an information system might not be able to assist in. Is there any similarity among these example decisions, and what does this say about the types of decisions an information system can help with? You can understand the complexity and breadth of some of the decisions being made within an organization by looking at the activities of its managers. While the classical model of management sees five functional roles of managers, real-life observation of managers sees far more complexity in managerial activities. Ask the students to recall the five attributes listed in the book as differing greatly from the classical description. (1) Managers perform a great deal of work at an unrelenting pace (2) managerial activities are fragmented; lasting for less than 9 minutes (3) managers prefer current, specific, ad hoc information; (4) managers prefer oral forms of communication and (5) managers give high priority to maintaining a complex web of contacts as an informal information system. Ask students to explain attributes 3, 4, and 5. © Prentice Hall 2011

Vendimmarrja dhe sistemet e informacionit 10 rolet menaxheriale sipas Mintzberg Rolet nderpersonale Drejtues formal (Figure) - teleprezence Drejtues – teleprezence, rrjete sociale, Twitter Koordinator – Smartphone, rrjete sociale Rolet informuese Qender kryesore informimi – MIS, ESS Shperndares informacioni - , rrjete sociale Zedhenes – Webinar, teleprezence Rolet vendimmarrese Sipermarres Mbajtes shqetesimi Alokues burimesh – Inteligjence biznesi, sisteme DSS Negociues This slide expands on the behavioral model of managers and describes Mintzberg’s behavioral model of managers which defines 10 managerial roles that fall into three categories. Ask students to give examples of activities for each role. Which of these roles can be assisted by information systems and which cannot? © Prentice Hall 2011

Vendimmarrja dhe sistemet e informacionit Tre arsyet kryesore pse investimet ne teknologji informacioni nuk prodhojne gjithmone rezultate pozitive Cilesia e informacionit Vendimet cilesore kerkojne informacione te cilesise se larte Filtrat menaxheriale Menaxheret kane vemendje selektive dhe paragjykime te ndryshme dhe refuzojne informacionin qe nuk eshte konform konceptimit paraprak Incercia organizacionale dhe politikat Forca te medha brenda organizates kundershtojne vendime qe sjellin ndryshime radikale Even in decision-making situations that can be helped by information systems, the information system may fail in helping to solve the problem or lead to a better decision. This slide describes the three main reasons why investments in information systems do not always produce positive results. What is meant by information quality? The text lists seven quality dimensions: accuracy, integrity, consistency, completeness, validity, timeliness, accessibility. Ask students to identify and/or describe these dimensions? Ask students to provide an example of what a management “filter” might be. Have they ever witnessed someone in a managerial position be unable to recognize or handle a problem because of a “filter” they are using (but don’t even know it)? Ask students why people within an organization would resist using an information system. © Prentice Hall 2011

Vendimmarrja dhe Sistemet e Informacionit Vendimmarrje e shpejte dhe e automatizuar Behet e mundur nepermjet algoritmave kompjuterik qe percaktojne ne menyre precize hapat per nje vendim te mirestrukturuar Njerezit nuk perfshihen ne vendime Psh. Programet kompjuterike te tregtise me shpejtesi te larte Ekzekutim i shitjes ne 30 milisekonda Pergjegjes per “Flash Crash” te 2010 Kerkojne mbrojtje qe sigurojne operimin e duhur dhe konformitet ndaj rregullores This slide looks at the growth of systems for executing high-velocity decision-making, such as financial trading programs. A second example is Google’s search engine. What types of problems lend themselves to this type of system? Ask students what other activities would benefit from humans being taken out of the decision making process. © Prentice Hall 2011

Inteligjenca e biznesit ne ndermarrje Inteligjenca e biznesit Infrastrukture per mbledhjen, ruajtjen, analizimin e te dhenave te prodhuara nga biznesi Te dhenat ruhen ne data warehouse, data marts Analitika e biznesit Mjete dhe teknika per analize te dhenash e raportim OLAP, statistike, modele, data mining Shitesit e zgjidhjeve te inteligjences se biznesit Krijojne produkte te analitikes dhe inteligjences se biznesit qe blihen nga firmat This slide introduces the concept of business intelligence and analytics. The text gives the example of Hallmark Cards, which uses SAS analytics software to analyze buying patterns and determine the most effective marketing plan for different types of customers. For example, which customers would respond best to direct mail or , and to what types of messages. It is important to understand that business intelligence and business analytics are products defined by hardware and software vendors. This is also one of the fastest growing segments in the U.S. software environment. Ask students why this might be so. The design of a data mart tends to start from an analysis of user needs and that a data warehouse tends to start from an analysis of what data already exists © Prentice Hall 2011

Inteligjenca e biznesit ne ndermarrje Gjashte elementet e mjedisit te inteligjences se biznesit Te dhena nga mjedisisi i biznesit Infrastruktura e inteligjences se biznesit Mjetet e analitikes se biznesit Menaxheret si perdorues si dhe metodat Platformat – MIS, DSS, ESS Nderfaqja e perdoruesit This slide looks at the six main elements at play in business intelligence. Ask students what is meant by managerial users and methods and why this is important. (Managers impose order on the analysis of data using a variety of managerial methods that define strategic business goals and specify how progress will be measured. Without management oversight, business analytics can produce a great deal of information that focus on the wrong matters and divert attention from the real issues. As the text notes, so far, only humans can ask intelligent questions.) © Prentice Hall 2011

Business Intelligence in the Enterprise Inteligjenca e biznesit dhe analitika qe ndihmon ne vendimmarrje This graphic looks at the different elements in the business intelligence environment; from left clockwise: Data, infrastructure, toolset, managerial users, platform, and user interface. This is an overview highlighting the kinds of hardware, software, and management capabilities that the major vendors offer and that firms develop over time. GRAFIKU 12-3 Inteligjenca e biznesit dhe analitika kerkojne njohje te mire te bazes se te dhenave, set mjetesh analitike dhe nje skuader menaxheresh qe shtrojne pyetje inteligjente dhe jane te afte te analizojne te dhenat. © Prentice Hall 2011

Inteligjenca e biznesit ne ndermarrje Inteligjenca e biznesit dhe aftesite analitike Qellimi eshte dergimi i informacionit ne kohe reale tek vendimmarresi Funksionet kryesore te sistemeve te inteligjences se biznesit Raportet e prodhimit Raportet e parametrizuara Panelet (Dashboards)/Fletenotimet (Scorecards) Pyetjet ad hoc/kerkim/raportim Drill down Parashikimet, skenaret, modelet This slide looks at the main functionalities of business intelligence systems. Parameterized reports are reports that can be adjusted to reflect user-defined parameters. The text gives the example of viewing a report by region and time of day to see how sales vary by these parameters. Ask students what is meant by drill down and give an example (the ability to move from a high level view summary to a detailed view.) For example, a summary view might present the total numbers of products by category sold world wide. Drilling down, views might go to products sold at national, regional, and local levels, and down from product categories to single products and product versions. © Prentice Hall 2011

Inteligjenca e biznesit ne ndermarrje Perdoruesit e inteligjences se biznesit This graphic looks at the different types of users and what they use BI applications for. On the left, power users (users who rely on BI most intensively) are broken into four main categories, with each category placed beside the types of reports it uses most. On the right, casual users are also broken into various categories and placed along the types of capabilities used most. For example, senior managers rely most on parameterized reports and dashboards. Ask students if they have ever used BI reports in a job setting. Perdoruesit e rastesishem jane konsumatoret e outputit te inteligjences se biznesit, ndersa perdoruesit profesioniste gjenerojne raporte, bejne analiza te reja, ndertojne modele dhe kryejne parashikime Grafiku 12-4 © Prentice Hall 2011

Inteligjenca e biznesit ne ndermarrje Shembuj te aplikacioneve te inteligjences se biznesit Analiza parashikuese Perdorimi i te dhenave per te parashikuar sjelljen e ardhshme Kompanite e kartave te kreditit perdorin analiza parashikuese per te identifikuar klientet ne rrezik per ikje Sisteme per vizualizim te dhenash Gjejne ngjashmeri dhe lidhje qe jane veshtire per tu shikuar ne tekste e te dhena tradicionale (psh nepermjet SAP ERP HCM) Sistemet gjeografike te informacionit (GIS) Vizualizon te dhenat mbi shperndarjen gjeografike te njerezve e burimeve (identifikim lokacioni per te bere biznes, llogaritje e kohes se reagimit ne rast fatkeqesish natyrore) This slide looks at various additional examples of BI applications. The text gives the example of FedEx using predictive analytics to develop models that predict how customers will respond to price changes, and has been giving an accuracy of 65 to 90%. Ask students if there are any disadvantages to predictive analytics. Ask students for any examples of data visualization tools they have come across. An example might be tag clouds used for topic navigation on the Internet – the larger the tag, the more popular the category. Note that BI is also used in the public sector for analyzing data and determining public policy, such as allocating school resources, an example discussed in a chapter case. © Prentice Hall 2011

Inteligjenca e biznesit ne ndermarrje Strategjite e menaxhimit per zhvillimin e inteligjences dhe analitikes se biznesit Dy strategji kryesore Zgjidhje e integruar nje-ndalese Firmat e hardware shesin software qe punojne ne menyre optimale ne hardware te tyre Krijojne varesi ndaj nje shitesi te vetem – kosto nderrimi Zgjidhje te shumefishta best-of-breed Fleksibilitet dhe pavaresi me e madhe Veshtiresi potenciale ne integrim te Software e Hardware te produkteve nga shites te shumellojshem This slide looks at the options a firm has in purchasing BI and BA applications. There are advantages and disadvantages to both options – in one case a single vendor might be easier to deal with, but harder to switch. Using multiple applications means that each solution might be more specifically suited to your business, but may pose difficulties when integrating with hardware or other software. The text points out that the marketplace is highly competitive and “given to hyperbole,” and managers will need to carefully examine the software’s capabilities in light of needed expenditures. © Prentice Hall 2011

Grupet e perdorimit te inteligjences se biznesit Menaxheret operacional dhe te mesem Monitorojne performancen ditore te biznesit Marrin vendime te mirestrukturuara Perdorin MIS “Super perdoruesi” dhe analistet e biznesit Perdorin analize me te sofistikuar Ndertojne raporte te pershtatura (customized) Perdorin DSS This slide and the next several slides discuss the systems used by different levels in a firm to aid decision making. Ask students to recall what types of decisions operational and middle managers make. Ask how TPS systems fit into this picture (MIS produce standardized reports based on data from TPS). © Prentice Hall 2011

Grupet e perdorimit te inteligjences se biznesit Sistemet e suportit ne vendimmarrje (DSS) Perdorin modele matematikore apo analitike Mundesojne tipe te ndryshme analizash Analizat ne forme hipoteze (“po-sikur”) Analiza sensitiviteti Analiza multidimensionale / OLAP P.sh: tabelat pivot (Shembull) This slide looks at the decision support systems used for the semi-structured decisions made by the business analysts and “super users” identified on the previous slide and outlines a variety of analysis methods that are utilized. Ask students to give examples of the different types of analysis. Remind students that DSS are business intelligence systems. The text cites the example of Progressive Insurance which uses business intelligence to identify the best customers for its products. © Prentice Hall 2011

Grupet e perdorimit te inteligjences se biznesit ANALIZA E SENSITIVITETIT This graphic illustrates the results of a sensitivity analysis of changing the sales price of a necktie – it answers the question, “What happens to the break-even point if the sales price and the cost to make each unit increases or decreases?” Tabela ilustron rezultatin e nje analize sensitiviteti qe tregon efektin qe ka ndryshimi i cmimit te shitjes se nje kravate dhe koston per njesi ne piken break-even te produktit. I pergjigjet pyetjes, “cfare ndodh me piken break-even nese cmimi i shitjes dhe kostoja per te prodhuar cdo njesi rritet apo zbret” FIGURE 12-5 © Prentice Hall 2011

Grupet e perdorimit te inteligjences se biznesit Suport ne vendimmarrje per menaxheret senior Ndihmon ekzekutivet te fokusohen ne informacion te rendesishem te performances Metoda e Balanced Scorecard: Mat rezultatet ne 4 dimensione Financiar Proces biznezi Klientela Mesim dhe rritje Indikatoret Kyc te Performances (KPIs) masin cdo dimension This slide looks at the business intelligence used by senior management. These executive support systems utilize some type of methodology to determine which information affects the profitability and success of the firm and how this information can be measured. One popular methodology is the balanced scorecard method. Another popular method is discussed on a following slide. Ask students how the scorecard itself is determined (A scorecard is developed by consultants and senior managers). © Prentice Hall 2011

Grupet e perdorimit te inteligjences se biznesit Modeli Balanced Scorecard Ne modelin Balanced Scorecard objektivat strategjik te firmes operacionalizohen rreth 4 dimensioneve: financiare, proceseve te biznesit, klientit dhe te mesuarit&rritje. Cdo dimension matet nepermjet disa KPI This graphic depicts the balanced scorecard methodology that many managers use to measure the performance of their business, and to understand how firm strategies are impacting the four dimensions of interest. For each of these dimensions performance is operationalized by identifying key performance indicators for that dimension. Grafiku 12-7 © Prentice Hall 2011

Grupet e perdorimit te inteligjences se biznesit Suport ne vendimmarrje per menaxheret senior (vazhdim) Menaxhimi i Performances se Biznesit (BPM) Transformon strategjite e firmes (psh: diferencim, prodhim me kosto te ulet, rritja ne treg) ne objektiva operacional KPI masin progresin e objektivave; ngjashmeri me BSC por me nje fokus me strategjik (BPM Working Group, 2004) Te dhenat per ESS Te dhena te brendshme nga aplikacionet e ndermarrjes Te dhena te jashtme si psh: bazat e te dhenave nga tregjet financiare Aftesia per te drill-down This slide continues the discussion of business intelligence used by senior managers. Another methodology used by ESS, similar to the balanced scorecard method but with a stronger and more explicit emphasis on corporate strategy, is BPM. Ask students to describe what drill-down capabilities are and why is this important. It is important to note that information systems today allow for real-time management – information gathered on the factory floor is transmitted and summarized within hours and seconds for executive dashboards. “Management by facts” © Prentice Hall 2011

Grupet e perdorimit te inteligjences se biznesit Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) Sisteme interaktive per te mundesuar zgjidhje te problemeve te pastrukturuara nga grupi Hardware dhe software te specializuara qe perdoren kryesisht ne dhoma konference Projektore, ekrane Software per te mbledhur, renditur, edituar idete dhe pergjigjet e pjesemarresve Mund te kerkoje suport dhe staf Mundeson rritje te pjesemarresve dhe te produktivitetit Promovon atmosfere bashkepunuese dhe garanton anonimitet This slide discusses GDSS, another type of system that supports decision-making. What types of problems might a group encounter when trying to make a decision as a group? What kinds of decisions might need to be made as a group? Increasingly, GDSS uses a virtual meeting or telepresence capability rather than physical group decision rooms which were used when these techniques were first developed. (≠CSCW sepse fokusi tek ceshtja) © Prentice Hall 2011

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