Systems Engineering and Analysis

Systems Engineering and Analysis
Chapter 1 System Science and Engineering 9/19/2018 rd

AFTER STUDYING THIS CHAPTER, YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO:
Define systems engineering. Identify the elements of a system. Classify natural and human-made systems. Specify the components of systems. Understand the impact of technology (magic) Appreciate the complexity of systems engineering. Become familiar with INCOSE. L E A R N I N G O B J E C T I V E S 9/19/2018 rd

In theory there is no difference. between theory and practice
In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. Yogi Berra 9/19/2018 rd

Yogi Berra-isms If you ask me a question I don't know, I'm not going to answer. Always go to other people's funerals; otherwise they won't go to yours. The future ain't what it used to be. I knew the record would stand until it was broken. I really didn't say everything I said. [...] Then again, I might have said 'em, but you never know. If people don't want to come to the ballpark how are you going to stop them? If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be. What time is it? You mean now? Little things are big. It gets late early out there. 9/19/2018 rd

Civil Engineers build the targets.
What is the difference between Aeronautical Engineers and Civil Engineers? Aeronautical Engineers build the weapons; Civil Engineers build the targets. 9/19/2018 rd

What is “Engineering”? Knowledge of mathematical and natural sciences applied to utilize limited resources economically for the benefit of people Scientific approach Optimize resources User/customer in focus Classical Engineering focused mainly on product design. 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Engineering (SE)
SE is an interdisciplinary approach and means to enable realization of successful systems It is quantitative including tradeoff, optimization, selection and integration of products from various engineering disciplines It is more of an engineering discipline. 9/19/2018 rd

Why “SE” is needed Complexity Technical Project 9/19/2018 rd

Wright Brothers Why “SE”?
Designed, Built and Flew the world’s first powered, controlled, heavier-than-air flight 9/19/2018 rd

Why “SE”? ONE Chief Designer – TOTAL knowledge 9/19/2018 rd

“SE” is needed due to Technical complexity
High Complexity Multidisciplinary Cost & Time “SE” is needed due to Technical complexity 9/19/2018 rd

Early Engineering Stone tools  1,000,000 BC Fire  500,000 BC Spears  400,000 BC Sewing  23,000 BC Spear thrower  14,000 BC Domestication of sheep  9,000 BC Permanent settlement & irrigation  7,000 BC Copper  6,000 BC Division of labor  5,000 BC 9/19/2018 rd

Origins of Systems Engineering
Pyramids 10,000 slaves over 30 years to build Noah's Ark (?), Roman aqueducts, Hoover Dam, Golden Gate Bridge (no theory, Ellis as Grand Old Man) Basic factors After WW II (rush to embrace technology) Faraday's 'dynamo' Of what use is a baby? Competition (space race with trade-offs, PERT & CPM) Specialization (Interfaces) Engineering Management Charles Alton Ellis) Faraday's dynamo 9/19/2018 rd

Golden Gate Bridge 9/19/2018 rd

Indonesia 9/19/2018 rd

What is a System? A system is any process that converts inputs to outputs. A group of components that work together for a specified purpose Components - products (hardware, software, firmware), processes, people, information, techniques, facilities, services and other support elements Together – integration of many Purpose – is achieved by implementing many functions 9/19/2018 rd

Three+ Viewpoints Customer and User ~ the Needs of the System Project Manager ~ time and money constraints Chief Systems Engineer – cost effective solutions available, dependable, capable Engineering specialist ~ Capabilities and ambitions, technology to build the system (scientist, engineer, mathematician, physicist) Thus a need for a common language exists among them. 9/19/2018 rd

What is a System? A group of elements arranged to act on the whole in order to achieve a common goal. Composite of equipment, skills and techniques capable of supporting an operational goal. 9/19/2018 rd

Elements of a System Components -- structural, operating and flow: System Inputs Processes Outputs Auto assembly auto parts, Manipulation, Assembled autos energy Joining, Finishing Attributes -- properties of components like color, strength, mph Relationships -- links between components and attributes, each car has id # System – a set of interrelated components Processes Input Output 9/19/2018 rd

The Elements of a System
Components – operating parts, inputs, processes, output Attributes – component properties Relationships – links components and attributes A system is characterized by the dependent behavior of its components. The effects of removing a pound of flesh from your body shows the dependency. 9/19/2018 rd

Three Basic Components
Structural (static) structural without activity Housing (dynamic) structural with activity highway vs. airway Operating (processing) Flow (information, material, energy) System Design Hierarchy -- Systems, subsystems, build, components, subcomponents, parts University system: Buildings, Faculty, Students 9/19/2018 rd

More systematic way of development
Better control of System Development incl. management of risk, changes, configuration Traceability at all levels Operational & supportability aspects Effectiveness Analysis Risk management Operational - Maintainability, Availability, Safety etc 9/19/2018 rd

Three Basic Input/Output Entities
Information (signal and data elements) Material – substance of all physical objects Energy – for operating and moving Throughput – Enters system in one form and exits system in another form E = mc2 9/19/2018 rd

Four Classes of Functional Elements
Signal  sense and communicate information Data  interpret, organize, and manipulate information Material  provide structure and transformation of materials Energy  provide energy and motive power. Each has significance (performing a distinct function) singularity (falls within a singe engineering class) commonality (can be found in many systems) TV to process information radio frequency into a picture and sound, powered by electricity 9/19/2018 rd

System Functional Elements
Class Element Function Signal Input, transmit, transduce, receive, process, output Data Input, process, control system, control processing, store, output Material Support, store, react, form, join, control, position Energy Generate thrust, generate torque, generate electricity, control electricity, control motion A transducer is a device, usually electrical or electronic, or electro-mechanical, that converts one type of energy to another for various purposes including measurement or information transfer (for example, pressure sensors). In a broader sense, a transducer is sometimes defined as any device that converts a signal from one form to another 9/19/2018 rd

Examples System Inputs Process Outputs Weather Satellite Images Data Storage Encoded images Transmission Terminal air Aircraft beacon Identification Identify traffic control responses Tracking Air tracks system Communications Truck location Cargo routing Map tracing Routing info system requests Communication Delivered cargo Airline reservation Travel requests Data management Reservations system Tickets Clinical Patient ID Information Patient status information Test records management History system Diagnoses Treatment Kiosks 9/19/2018 rd

System Errors Type I Rejecting a true hypothesis Radar detection (failing to react to detected targets) Type II Accepting a false hypothesis Car alarm goes off without intrusion at 3 am Accepting noise as signals NATCS with the ETAs and ETDs under pressure of cost, schedule and performance. 9/19/2018 rd

Causes of System Error Inadequate articulation of requirements Poor planning (not thinking ahead enough) Inadequate technical skills and continuity Lack of teamwork Poor communications and coordination Insufficient monitoring of progress Inferior corporate support 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Approach Follow a systematic and repeatable process Emphasize interoperability and harmonious operations Provide cost effective solution to customer's problem Assure the consideration of alternatives Use iterations as a means of refinement and convergence Satisfy all user and customer requirements Create a robust system 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Engineering (SE)
Emphasis on Top-down approach Interdisciplinary approach Effort on more complete definition of system requirements Life cycle engineering approach 9/19/2018 rd

Emphasis in SE Top-down approach Look at system from top
Decide inputs/outputs taking into account the supersystem Decide subsystems allocated … down to lower levels Interdisciplinary approach Analytical approach is inadequate Capture the interactions between disciplines Exploit the synergism of these interactions 9/19/2018 rd

Emphasis in SE More complete definition of needs
Complete definition of needs facilitates verification of system performance Minimize surprises at later stages Life cycle engineering approach Initial approach was Design cycle Later with Design for Manufacture (DFM) approach Manufacturing cycle also included Present thinking is to consider three life cycles i.e. Design, Manufacturing and Supportability concurrently Leading to Concurrent Engineering (CE) 9/19/2018 rd

Life-cycle engineering approach
Acquisition phase Utilization phase Product use Phase out and Disposal Conceptual & Preliminary Design Detail Design & Development Production and/or Construction NEED Design Manufacturing Configuration Design Manufacturing Operations Manufacture Product support and maintenance Product support configuration design and development Deployment 9/19/2018 rd

Product life cycle Identification of need Research Input
Conceptual design System concept Preliminary Design Subsystem design Detailed Design & Development Component design Production/Construction Utilization & Support Phase-out and Disposal 9/19/2018 rd

Define system objectives (user’s needs)
Basic steps Define system objectives (user’s needs) Establish performance requirements (requirements analysis) Establish functionality (functional analysis) Evolve design and operation concepts (design synthesis) Select a baseline (through trade-off studies) Verify the baseline meets requirements Iterate the process through lower level trades (decomposition) 9/19/2018 rd

R V D Requirements analysis Functional analysis INPUT Design Synthesis
System Analysis & Control OUTPUT Concept studies System studies Prelim. Design Detailed Design 9/19/2018 rd

Detailed design & Development System analysis and control
Conceptual design Preliminary design Detailed design & Development Requirement analysis Functional analysis Design Synthesis System analysis and control Development phasing System Engineering Management Development Production Deployment Operation Support Training Verification Disposal System Engineering process Life cycle approach This interaction shows how to apply SE process to develop systems in life cycle approach 9/19/2018 rd

Aids to SE Management Development phasing Lifecycle planning Baselines
Functional baseline Allocated baseline (‘Design to’ specs.) Product baseline (‘Build to’ specs.) Drawing inputs from all the life cycle activities for various development phases Development phasing Baselines Lifecycle planning System Engineering Management System Engineering process Integrated approach Life cycle approach Integrated team from Systems engineering and discipline specialists 9/19/2018 rd

Relationships Reflectivity : a ~ a Symmetry: if a ~ b then b ~ a Transitivity: if a ~ b and b ~ c then a ~ c Equivalence relation has all three properties. Examples:  : is reflective, not symmetric, but transitive >: taller than : only transitive same birthday, is similar to, is parallel to : congruent, same name are all equivalent and partition the set into distinct classes. congruent 9/19/2018 rd

Classification of Systems
Natural and Human Made Solar System, seasons; dams, highways Physical and Conceptual: exist in space; plans of action, house; house plans; blueprints Static and Dynamic bridge; commercial aviation highway; Closed and Open Cloud Chamber; fire a cannon; vs. the manufacturing organization that makes the cannon. 9/19/2018 rd

Emphasis on Technical systems
Other Systems Natural Man made Technical Non – Technical Aircraft Missile … Economic system Societal systems … Emphasis on Technical systems 9/19/2018 rd

Technical Systems Human-made artifacts
Result of engineering activities with the processes of engineering design Difficult to classify systems based on technology like electrical system, mechanical system Most present day systems are hybrids of simple systems of the past An indication of the need to use inter-disciplinary approach 9/19/2018 rd

Cybernetics Norbert Weiner coined the word From the Greek meaning governor or steersman Feedback control Regulation and Control Generalize control mechanisms Mathematical modeling Homeostasis of biological organisms Self-regulating, automation; snakes and mammals Sought to understand biological systems analogized to electrical systems Flow of information Cybernetics comes from electrical engineering, neurophysiology, physics, biology, and economics. 9/19/2018 rd

Cybernetics Norbert Weiner – Kamikaze & solutions to equations Feedback Homeostasis – self regulating Information flow - distinct trigger component Artificial Intelligence (Weizenbaum's Eliza) and Automation General Systems Theory Hierarchy of Levels Kamikaze paths tracked by Weiner and he would predict where headed getting all the past feedback from those who were experiencing the attacks. 9/19/2018 rd

WHAT WOULD IT MEAN TO YOU IF YOU GOT ME TO HELP YOU?
MAY I HELP YOU? : I want you to help me WHAT WOULD IT MEAN TO YOU IF YOU GOT ME TO HELP YOU? :Im afraid to tell you YOURE NOT REALLY TALKING ABOUT ME, ARE YOU? : What does that mean WHY DO YOU ASK? :are you asking me WHY ARE YOU INTERESTED IN WHETHER OR NOT I AM ASKING YOU? :why do you keep answering with questions DOES THAT QUESTION INTEREST YOU? :i dont know DONT YOU REALLY KNOW? :no ARE YOU SAYING NO JUST TO BE NEGATIVE? :i think so DO YOU REALLY THINK SO? :not always CAN YOU THINK OF A SPECIFIC EXAMPLE? :oh shut up IM NOT SURE I UNDERSTAND YOU FULLY? :goodbye GOODBYE 9/19/2018 rd

Boulding Hierarchy Frameworks – static, 3D universe, electrons & nucleus, gene, solar system Dynamic (Clockwork) – time arrow (4th D), generators, lever and pulley motion Thermostat (cybernetics) – Radar, c & c flow of information. Seeking stability Open – self-maintained & producing environment; How did cell life begin? Plants (flora, botany) -- Systems of differentiated but dependent genetic- social parts with blueprint for growth (arm, leg, organ) Animal – fauna, (can learn) mobility, teleological behavior, AI, (Is universe designed by a Designer? Who designed the Designer? Ad infinitum, infinite regress, behavior, self-awareness, spiritual vs. religious Humans – (self-consciousness, awareness, read and write culture evolution) Social Organization – (preserve culture, dynamic evolution; values, norms) No person is an island Transcendental ~ Unknowable (God) systems not yet knowing all the answers What can science do to improve the human condition? Not my field. *** Advanced Technology is indistinguishable from magic ***. inescapable unknowables Command and control communication Static (framework)2. Dynamic (clockwork)3. Cybernetic (e.g. thermostat)4. Open (structurally self maintaining - a cell)5. Plants (organised whole - e.g., a plant)6. Animals (ability to learn)7. Humans (self-consciousness)8. Social (values, roles, norms)9. Transcendental (e.g. god) (after Boulding, 1956) That is not my field." What can we do -- what can science do -- about improving the human condition?" 9/19/2018 rd

9/19/2018 rd

Emergence of life Communities Atom Organisms Molecule Tissue Cell
Organs

Elementary Cellular Automata
2^8 = 256 rules Rigid array Parallel update

Class 1 – Repetition Rule 250
Degenerate, single color or checker board Nothing really interesting or surprising Rule 250

Class 2 – Nesting Repeated nested patterns Rule 90

Class 3 – Randomness Rule 30
10 rules of elementary CA are random Statistical analysis show randomness Are purely random patterns less complex than localized structures? Rule 30

Class 4 – Localized Structures
“Beyond randomness” P. 60 Neither regular nor completely random Unique rule among 256 elementary CA Rule 110

Elementary cellular automata
rule 222 Sebastian Klost, Danilo Kühn, Heiko Mühle

Jon Wallis University of Wolverhampton 9/19/2018 rd

Holon (Whole) Holon is simultaneously a whole and a part in that systems are embedded (nested) in other systems. Doctrine of the fundamental and the significant Letters are more fundamental than words, but words are more significant than letters. Hydrogen atom vs. an ant Remove all molecules; atoms still exist. Remove all atoms; molecules cease to exist. Holarchy – hierarchy of holons. 9/19/2018 rd

holistic, (more than sum of parts) hierarchical, (holons)
Open systems are: goal seeking, holistic, (more than sum of parts) hierarchical, (holons) have inputs and outputs, transform inputs into outputs, consume or generate energy, are subject to the effects of entropy, have equi-finality (all roads lead to Rome), and have feedback. (bet 64 '( ) 1/2) Where would you put manufacturing systems in the Boulding hierarchy? Equifinality a given end state can be reached by many potential means Hubble telescope 9/19/2018 rd

Natural Systems (e.g. ecological systems, human body)
Physically Designed Systems (e.g. subways, machines) Abstract Design Systems (e.g. languages, mathematics) Human Activity Systems (e.g. politics, banking, libraries) Transcendental Systems (e.g. beyond knowledge or comprehension) 9/19/2018 rd

DNA Double Helix (ATGC) A is for adenine G is for guanine C is for cytosine T is for thymine Recombinant DNA Labs: Basic Tools For The Molecular Biologist Gene / Chromosome - Gene / DNA Relationship Analogies The following demonstration shows a very simple way to show the relationship between DNA and a chromosome using a large spool of light colored thread. A Spool of Thread Hold the spool in your hand and ask the students to describe what you have in your hand. Ask them what substances (cotton and wood) are present and what structures (thread and spool) are present. Conclude that the thread of cotton is wound around the spool made of wood. Equate the substance DNA (one molecule per one spool) to thread and the substance wood to the protein (histone) it's wound around (even though DNA is not actually wound around the histone in this manner.) After this is established, unwind a fair amount of thread which accumulates in your hand and proceed to throw it at a student in the second row. Of course, it does not quite get there. Ask them why? It's not a convenient way to transfer the thread (DNA). Rewind the thread (DNA) and then throw the spool of thread (chromosome) to a student in the back row. Why was the spool of thread easier to catch? Then discuss the importance of "wrapped" DNA (coiled and supercoiled into chromosomes only when DNA needs to be transferred to another part of the cell which happens during mitosis or meiosis after replication.) Stress that when the thread (DNA) is being used (during interphase) it is not so tightly coiled or wound and this is analogous to DNA in a working cell. Next, take a colored marker and color over a two foot section of the thread. Equate this to the DNA nucleotide sequence for a particular gene. If you are using red ink, tell them this might be an instruction (gene) for the cell to make a red pigment (protein). Continue to unwind another two or three feet of thread and color it blue to represent a gene that might code for the cell to make a blue pigment (protein). Then rewind this thread around the spool so that the blue and red sections appear as part of the linear order of the thread on the spool (linear order of genes on a chromosome). This adequately conveys the concepts that: The gene is a segment of a chromosome that codes for one protein. A gene is a linear sequence on the DNA molecule. DNA must be unwound to be able to be transcribed much like thread must be unwound to be used. 9/19/2018 rd

Origin of Life Harold Urey/Stanley Miller –suggested to create in a laboratory the conditions of the early earth, add some energy to see what happens. performed the experiment (water, hydrogen, ammonia, methane sparked with lightning) Energy – lightning strikes 60K volts; later just ultraviolent light Results – Amino acids were created; Adenine A Vincent Sarich – serum albumin to create family tree based on the immune system or Immunological distance ID Some results – pigeon & penguin closer to turtle than turtle to snake; giant panda is a bear, lesser panda a raccoon. Chimp blood type A, Gorilla Type B and Humans Type AB Chimp Blood Type A; Gorilla B; Human AB, Humans have 4 blood types: A B AB and O (most common) Sarich ~ Separated from the apes 4 to 5 million years ago disputing the flawed fossil record of 30 million years ago 9/19/2018 rd

Blood Types Blood comes in four types: O, A, B, and AB. The percentages of people in the United States with each blood type are shown below. Blood Type Percentage O 46 A 40 Chimp B 10 Gorilla AB 4 Human CHIMPANZEES are blood group A, minimal O, never B. GORILLAS are blood group B, minimal O, but never A. 9/19/2018 rd

Definitions of Systems Engineering
An interdisciplinary approach and means to enable the realization of successful systems. INCOSE An interdisciplinary, collaborative approach to derive, evolve, and verify a life-cycle balanced system solution to satisfy customer needs Top down hierarchy, concurrent, life-cycle, interdisciplinary, complex, well-planned, highly disciplinary approach to problem solving. Systems engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production to operation. Systems engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs. 9/19/2018 rd

SIMILAR is the mnemonic.
60 to 80% of the failures are due to poor stated requirements. Where is life-cycle? 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Engineering Systems Engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production to operation. Systems Engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs. INCOSE International Council on Systems Engineering 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Engineering Peter Singe Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static "snapshots." It is a set of general principles -- distilled over the course of the twentieth century, spanning fields as diverse as the physical and social sciences, engineering, and management.... During the last thirty years, these tools have been applied to understand a wide range of corporate, urban, regional, economic, political, ecological, and even psychological systems. And systems thinking is a sensibility -- for the subtle interconnectedness that gives living systems their unique character. 9/19/2018 rd

System Life-Cycle The system life cycle has seven (varies) phases: discovering system requirements, evaluate alternatives, full-scale engineering design, implementation, integration and system test, operation, maintenance and evaluation retirement, disposal and replacement Scientific method of problem solving 9/19/2018 rd

System Classification
Human or Natural – dams and hurricanes Physical or conceptual – real vs. simulated Static of dynamic – bridge or highway vs. university Closed or open – Sealed chemical reaction the Biodrome. Most systems are open Entropy measures the degree of chaos. Information: How many bits to correctly pick a card from a deck of 52? 25  52  26 Energy to organize in one place leads to disorganization outside it; confirming the second law of thermodynamics – you lose. 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Point of View Big Picture, Holistic, Gestalt to include the surrounding environment, Top down System – a group of components that work together for a specified purpose. (service, product, process) Airport – planes, pilots, mechanics, ticket agents, runways, concourses (service) Automobile assembly (product) Refinery – change crude oil into gasoline (process) Also note that very detailed and specific work must be done Why is reality understandable?" "Why are the laws of nature as they are?" "Why is there anything at all?"[ 9/19/2018 rd

Reduction vs. Whole Uniting the Fundamental forces The theory of Everything (TOE) Unifying the 4 fundamental forces (is gravity a force?) Einstein in an elevator (Gedankenexperiment) Seeking the smallest particle of matter; where does the property disappear? (at the atom level) Repeatability of phenomena (reduction) Thought Experiments 9/19/2018 rd

Aswan Dam 9/19/2018 rd

Optimal The word optimal should not appear in the statement of the problem, because there is no single optimal solution to complex systems problems. Most SE solutions are unique to situations. 9/19/2018 rd

The "Best" System The word optimal should not appear in the statement of the problem, because there is no single optimal solution to complex systems problems. "the best is the enemy of the good" gain little at higher cost "systems engineering is the art of the good enough" Balanced View Desired Minimum acceptable 9/19/2018 rd

9/19/2018 rd

Satisficing from satisfying and sacrificing
"Bounded rationality is a genuinely interdisciplinary topic. Its subject matter is the mechanisms that humans, institutions, and artificial agents use to achieve their goals. Satisficing from satisfying and sacrificing The common denominator is that decisions need to be made with limited time, knowledge, and other resources, and in a world that is uncertain and changing. 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Engineering Process
INCOSE says the basic Systems Engineering process tasks are: 1) Define the System Objectives 2) Establish the Functionality 3) Establish the Performance Requirements 4) Evolve Design and Operation Concepts 5) Select a Baseline 6) Verify that the Baseline Meets Requirements 7) Validate that the Baseline Satisfies the User 8) Iterate the Process through Lower Levels 9/19/2018 rd

Interrelated and Constrained
Product Capability Time Cost Cheaper Faster Better Decisions Performance 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Engineering Systems Engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production to operation. Systems Engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs. INCOSE International Council on Systems Engineering 9/19/2018 rd

Reduction vs. Whole The theory of everything (TOE) Seeking the smallest particle of matter Expansionism -- all is part of larger whole Analytical : Reduction :: Synthesis : Expansionism Top-Down : Bottom-up :: inside-out thinking : outside-in thinking Analytical is taking apart; synthesis is putting together Decompositon Electro-magnetism (Synergy) Growth (size and expansion) vs. Development (capacity and competence) 9/19/2018 rd

Russell Ackoff describes three theorems in "The Second Industrial Revolution":
"If you take apart a system and take it apart to identify its components, and then operate those components in such a way that every component behaves as well as it possibly can, there is only one thing of which you can be sure. The system as a whole will not behave as well as it can...The corollary is this -- if you have a system that is behaving as well as it can, none of the parts will be." Implication of teamwork "The second characteristic of a system is that any part that affects the whole depends on what at least one other part is doing. Or put another way, no part of the system has an independent effect on the whole." "Now the third condition is the most complex one, and the most important. It says that if you take these elements and group them in any way, they form subgroups. These subgroups will be subject to the same first and second conditions as the original elements were; e.g., each subgroup will affect the performance as a whole and no subgroup will have an independent effect on the performance of the whole." System Thinking Anheuser-Busch Professor Emeritus of Management Science at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania 9/19/2018 rd

World Wars WW I -- Fought with chemistry, mustard gas WW II -- Fought with physics, operations research, radar, atom bomb WW III WW IV -- Is being fought with Information and Knowledge Internet and computer; Predator Technology and Society Machine Age -- Grand old man (GOM) Systems Age -- too complex for the GOM 9/19/2018 rd

Six Basic Machines 9/19/2018 rd

Ages Stone Age (didn't end because of running out of stones) Copper, Bronze, and Iron Ages Silicon Age System Age of more complicated engineering feats 9/19/2018 rd

The Systems Age Operations Research -- Military operations Analytic Thinking – outside-in thinking today Synthetic Thinking – inside-out future Evaluation Scenario Thinking Synthetic mode of thought – systems approach Example – a pair of scissors evokes synergy Analysis Evaluation Synthesis Analytic thinking with Emphasis on the Parts vs. Whole 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Engineering Is it different from good engineering? Interdisciplinary Life cycle complexity Integrating and Iterating demands of Science & Technology Goals – use the materials and forces of nature to satisfy needs of the people (Technology) Tradeoffs with hindsight and foresight Disciplined and Planned Science and Technology (old and new) 9/19/2018 rd

Produced the first ICBM 18,000 scientists and engineers 17 contractors
The Atlas Project Produced the first ICBM 18,000 scientists and engineers 17 contractors 200 subcontractors 200,000 suppliers Coordinated by the Ramo-Woodridge Corporation 9/19/2018 rd

–Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology
The process of devising a system, component, or process to meet desired needs. It is a decision-making process (often iterative) in which the basic sciences, mathematics, and engineering sciences are applied to convert resources optimally to meet a stated objective –Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology A physics student asks how? Engineer asks what Philosopher asks why Economist asks how much Liberals arts asks "Would you like fries with that? 9/19/2018 rd

INCOSE International Council on Systems Engineering
Systems Engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production to operation. Systems Engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs. INCOSE International Council on Systems Engineering 9/19/2018 rd

PMTE Paradigm Processes -- defines WHAT to do to accomplish task Methods – defines HOW to do (deals with ideas) Tools – enhances WHAT & HOW Environment – enables WHAT & HOW Science – Why? How? Mathematics – If, then Engineering – Voila! If it works, it's true. Processes Methods Tools Environment 9/19/2018 rd

PMTE Processes – logical sequence of tasks to achieve objective Methods -- Observe, analyze, synthesize, conceptualize, characterize, optimize, document, communicate, simulate Tools – computer or software related Environments – computing, communicating, personal, organizational, managerial, physical, life cycle 9/19/2018 rd

Historical Summary of Systems Engineering
Engineering goes back to humankind emerging. Systems Engineering ~ after WW II relatively recent Related to management 9/19/2018 rd

Cards have letters on one side and numbers on the other.
Hypothesis- If a card has a D on one side it must have a 3 on the other side. You are a scientist testing this hypothesis. Which of the four cards below should be turned over? D F Contrapositive p q ~p ~q p=>q ~q=>~p 9/19/2018 rd

Logical Propositions Statement p  q Converse q  p Inverse ~p  ~q Contrapositive ~q  ~p Equivalence p q 9/19/2018 rd

–Sir Karl Popper (1902-1994), LogikderForschung
Falsifiability The criterion of demarcation of empirical science from pseudo science and metaphysics is falsifiability. The strength of a theory can be measured by the breadth of experimental results that it precludes. –Sir Karl Popper ( ), LogikderForschung All life is problem-solving. 9/19/2018 rd

Propositions TRUTH Knowledge Beliefs 9/19/2018 rd

Teleology vs. Naturalism
Teleology the philosophical study of design and purpose. All things should be designed for or directed toward an inherent purpose or final cause. Form is defined by function. Intelligent Design Naturalism – Is how Nature is designed; Function is defined by form. Teleology implies that a person has eyes because of the need to see; (form follows function or eyes follow need to see), while naturalism implies that a person has sight simply because of eyes, or that function follows form (eyesight follows from having eyes). Nature adapts the organ to the function, and not the function to the organ ~ Aristotle Nothing in the body is made in order that we may use it. What happens to exist is the cause of its use. ~ Lucretius Wiki 9/19/2018 rd

CUP Half Empty Pessimist Half Full Optimist 9/19/2018 rd

Design Principles Independence Axiom ~ Maintain the independence of functional requirements Information Axiom ~ Minimize the information content; i.e., a functionally uncoupled design has minimum info. Independence Whats ~ functional domain Hows ~ physical domain through Design Parameters (DP) Functional coupling undesired; physical coupling desired as it leads to less complexity. 9/19/2018 rd

Design Principles Decouple coupled designs Minimize functional requirements and constraints Integrate physical parts Standardize for interchangeability Use symmetry Specify largest tolerance in functional requirements Uncouple Design with less information 9/19/2018 rd

Functional Domain Metal removal device Power supply
Workpiece rotation source Speed changing device Workpiece support and toolholder Support structure Tool positioner Tool holder Positioner Support structure Functional Domain Longitudinal clamp Rotation shop Tool holder 9/19/2018 rd

Physical Domain Lathe Motor drive Head stock Gear box Tailstock Bed
Carriage Spindle assembly Feed screw Frame Physical Domain Clamp Handle Bolt Pin Tapered bore 9/19/2018 rd 106 9/19/2018 rd

Functional Requirements
FR1: Provide access to the food in the refrigerator FR2: Minimize the energy loss Door opened and cold air escapes conflicting with FR2. Decouple with a horizontally hinged door, which when lifted the heavier cold air remains. 9/19/2018 rd

Coupling Functional Coupling vs. Physical Coupling
Just because a single physical entity carries out multiple functions, it does not imply functional coupling! Consider a wrench with open and closed ends or the Swiss Army Knife Modular design desired 9/19/2018 rd

Disadvantages of high coupling include
A change in one component forces a ripple of changes in other components. Difficult to understand a component in isolation. Difficult to reuse or test a component because dependent components must also be included. 9/19/2018 rd

Benefits of Uncoupling Simpler operation More transparent design
Simpler to change the design More parallelism in the design process 9/19/2018 rd

Information in Axiomatic Design
The probability that a product can satisfy all of its FRs is called the probability of success P(S) The Information Axiom – Minimize information content – (thereby maximizing probability of success) -- logical content is inversely proportional to probability The Information Axiom provides a theoretical foundation for robust design Info = 1/ log2 P(event) Functional requirements 9/19/2018 rd

Decision making has an axiomatic basis in vN-M utility theory etc.
Decision Based Design Engineering design is a decision making process in which the designer must, in the presence of uncertainty, make choices among alternatives (subjective) Decision making has an axiomatic basis in vN-M utility theory etc. Designers should try to maximize E(u), i.e., satisficing. vonNeumann Morgenstern 9/19/2018 rd

Axiomatic EUT Completeness: For a, b; either a > b or b > a Transitivity: For a , b and c, if a > b and b > c, then a > c Continuity: For a, b, c such that a > b > c, there exist an  such that a + (1 - )c = b Independence: For a, b, c and ; a > b if and only if a + (1 - )c > b + (1 - ) c Expected Utility Theory 9/19/2018 rd

Framing Effect Kahneman/Tversky Surgery: 100 people => 90 live after operation, 68 are alive after first year and 34 are alive after 5 years. Radiation:100 people => 77 are alive after first year and 22 are alive after 5 years. _____________________________________________ Surgery: 100 people => 10 die after operation, 32 die by end of first year and 66 die by end of 5 years. Radiation: 100 people => 23 die by end of first year and 78 die by end of 5 years. Name your poison. 9/19/2018 rd

We give someone a choice between two wagers.
Risk Aversion We give someone a choice between two wagers. WAGER I: A 100% chance of losing $50 WAGER II: A 25% chance of losing $200 and a 75% chance of losing nothing Most people will pick Wager II, even though the two wagers have identical expected utilities. 9/19/2018 rd

We give someone a choice between two wagers
WAGER I: A 25% chance of winning $200 WAGER II: A 100% chance of winner $50. Most people will pick Wager II, even though the two wagers have identical expected utilities. The phrase "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" comes to mind 9/19/2018 rd

"fiuoynacdaersiht, s'tiaelcarim!"
External Cues Consider "fiuoynacdaersiht, s'tiaelcarim!" The whole of the situation is more than its parts. Figure-Ground relationship ~melody-harmony OB5–117

… And so these men of Indostan Disputed loud and long,
Each in his own opinion Exceeding stiff and strong, Though each was partly in the right, And all were in the wrong! ~ John Godfrey Saxe the elephant is like a wall, snake, spear, tree, fan or rope,

Prospecting in Perspectives with Deep in Thoughts
Patron: Waitress, I'll have a cup of coffee with no cream. Waitress: You'll have to have it with no milk 'cause we ain't got no cream. How do you pronounce the 50th state, Hawaii or Havaii? Havaii Thank you. You're Velcome! Patron: I'd like a round trip ticket. Ticket Agent (a bit annoyed) To where? To where? Patron: (a bit annoyed) To here! To here! OB5–119

Prospecting in Perspectives
Prospecting in Perspectives (continuing) Tourist 1: (yelling to Tourist 2 on the other side of the Seine in Paris) Hey, how do I get on the other side? Tourist 2: You already are on the other side. 1st Umpire: Some are balls; some are strikes. I call them as they are. 2nd Umpire: Some are balls; some are strikes. I call them as I see them. 3rd Umpire: Some are balls; some are strikes. But they ain't nothing 'til I calls them. Costello: Well then who is on first? Abbott: Yes. OB5–120

Costello: All I'm trying to find out is the fellow's name on first base.
Abbott: Who. Costello: The guy that gets... Abbott: That's it. Costello: Who gets the money... Abbott: He does, every dollar. Sometimes his wife comes down and collects it. Costello: Whose wife? Abbott: Yes. PAUSE Abbott: What's wrong with that? Costello: Look, all I wanna know is when you sign up the first baseman, how does he sign his name? Costello: The guy. Costello: How does he sign... Abbott: That's how he signs it. Costello: Who?

Airplane! Roger Murdock: We have clearance Clarence. Captain Oveur: Roger, Roger. What's our vector, Victor? Tower voice: Tower's radio clearance, over! Captain Oveur: That's Clarence Oveur! Oveur. Tower voice: Roger. Roger Murdock: Huh? Tower voice: Roger, over. Roger Murdock: Huh? Captain Oveur: Huh? rd 9/19/2018

Prospecting in Perspectives …
How do you say "adios" in Spanish? Rome wasn't born in a day. Do you know the longest sentence in the English language? I do, but I'm not telling. It ain't over until it's over!

Ignorant or Apathetic 1st person: I don't know whether you are ignorant or apathetic? 2nd person: I don't know and I don't care.

Outcome – the result of a decision
Definitions Decision – a choice among alternatives, an irrevocable allocation of resources Outcome – the result of a decision Expectation – One’s knowledge about the outcome prior to making a decision Uncertainty – a lack of precise knowledge Risk –The result of uncertainty on the outcome of a decision Information –The basis on which good decisions are made 9/19/2018 rd

Cognitive Training How can one cook 3 steaks in 9 minutes on a 2-steak grill when each side requires 3 minutes? Quick! You have 5 seconds to make a melon out of a lemon. What to do? Tick, tick, tick, tick tah-dah! rd 9/19/2018

Cognitive Training The next number is: ? ? ? Which word does not belong? truths flit thewig krow grad arial polysyllabic Bold italics CAPITALS Tom, Dick and Harriet live together. Two are blind and one is deaf. Tom enters a room, clicks on a light, and Harriet, alone on the sofa, says "Hi, Tom." Who's who? © 2007 Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved.

Perceptual Fly at 70 mph A at 40 mph B at 60 mph A 100 miles B
9/19/2018 rd 128

Determinism vs. Free Will
Box A $1,000 Box B $1,000,000 Your objective is to make as much money as you can. You can take the contents of both boxes or just Box B. Your God comes to you and says, "If I thought you would take both boxes, I left Box B empty; but if I thought you would just take Box B, I put in 1 million dollars for you. Most theorists make more moderate assumptions. A moderate determinist position might say that, although we are ultimately determined, we are capable of participating in that determinism. A moderate free-will position might say that freedom is intrinsic to our nature, but we must live out that nature in an otherwise determined world The forming of the Universe. Is knowledge discovered or created? rd 9/19/2018

Save $5 on a $10 battery vs. save $5 on a $1000 suit.
People prefer a certain gain over an uncertain gain even if the uncertain gain would be larger AND People prefer an uncertain loss over a certain loss even if the uncertain loss would be larger. These two opposing tendencies can be used to produce a form of irrational behavior known as a preference reversal. Save $5 on a $10 battery vs. save $5 on a $1000 suit. 9/19/2018 rd

You are presented with two pies Banana Cream and Cherry
Preferences and Pie You are presented with two pies Banana Cream and Cherry You select Banana Cream Apple and Banana Cream You select Apple Cherry and Apple You select Cherry Anything problematic in this situation? Not transitive 9/19/2018 rd

Transitivity You see three pies: Apple, Berry, and Cherry. Suppose you are asked your preference between A and C. You answer C. May I not also statistically infer that you prefer B to A with probability 2/3? Show why or deny. Assuming transitivity of C over A, the remaining permutations of A, B and C are ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA, and B is preferred over A in 2 of the 3 cases. 9/19/2018 rd

Voting Approaches Plurality – Vote for one alternative; most votes win, Majority – Vote for one alternative; must receive more than 50% of the votes to win; If not, runoff between top two with plurality. Weighted Voting – Assign weights to preferences Borda voting – (n-1) for most preferred, (n-2) for next etc. Condorcet voting -- Binary comparison voting Copeland voting – wins - losses Combine Borda voting with Copeland binary comparisons of wins – losses using (n-1) points (etc.) for first and worst in wins and losses. 9/19/2018 rd

Voting Examples N = 60 ( ) people; Candidates a, b, c, 23: a > c > b; 19: b > c > a; 16: c > b > a; 2: c > a > b PLURALITY => a = 23, b = 19, c = 18 and a wins. MAJORITY => runoff between a and b; a = = 25; b = = 35 > 30 and b wins. BORDA => a = 2(23) + 1(2) = 48; b = 2(19) + 1(16) = 54 c = 1(23) + 1(19) + 2(16) + 2(2) = 78, c wins. Approval voting 23 < a < 25; 19 < b < 35; 18 < c < 60 Mid rank => a = 24; b = 27; c = 39 and c wins. Copeland => a = 2(23) + 1(2) – 2(19) – 2(16) – 2(1) = 48 – 72 = -24 b = 54 – 2(23) - 1(16) - 2(2) = = -12 c = 78 – 1(23) -1(19) = 78 – 42 = 36 and c wins. Suppose 400: a > c > b; 390: b > c > a; 40: c > b > a Plurality: a > b > c :: 400:390:40; Pairs => c > a :: 430:400; c > b :: 440:390 b > a :: 430:400 => c > b > a Sage & Armstrong p 427 9/19/2018 rd

Voting Coalitions Assume that {a, b, c, d} represent a committee of 4 members, each having a single vote where a simple majority vote is required. Each element of P can be viewed as a voting coalition. Thus W = { (a,b,c}, {a,b,d}, {a,c,d}, {b,c,d}, {a,b,c,d} } is the set of winning coalitions and W’ = { , {a}, {b}, {c}, {d}, {a,b}, {a,c}, {a,d}, {b,c}, {b,d}, {c,d}} is the set of non-winning coalitions. L = {, {a}, {b}, {c}, {d} }  W’ is a losing coalition (its complement is a winning coalition), and B = {{a,b}, {a,c}, {a,d}, {b,c}, {b,d}, {c,d} }  W’ is a blocking coalition. (power-set '(a b c d))  ((A B C D) (A C D) (B C D) (A B D) (A B C) (B C) (C D) (B D) (A D) (A C) (A B) (C) (D) (A) (B) NIL)

Intransitivity of Preferences The preference ordering
A > B > C > A Implies an ordering of utilities U(A ) > U(B) > U(C) > U(A) Intransitive preferences Allow a Dutch bet to be formed Are considered by many to be “irrational”. Portfolio, betting on several horses 9/19/2018 rd

No method of preference aggregation meets these conditions.
Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Given the choice between x, y and z, a group preference should satisfy conditions: If everyone in the group prefers x over y, the group preference should be for x over y. If the group preference is for x over y and for y over z, then the group preference should be for x over z. If the group must choose between x and y, their preference should not depend upon whether z exists or not There shouldn’t be a dictator in the group, i.e., the preferences of each individual in the group should count. No method of preference aggregation meets these conditions. 9/19/2018 rd

Arrow’s Theorem and Engineering
Hazelrigg, G. A., 1997, “On Irrationality in Engineering Design”, ASME J of MechDes. Votes Engineer Preference A vs. B B vs. C A vs. C I A>B>C A B A II B>C>A B B C III C>A>B A C C Group preference A>B B>C C>A 40 A B C Remove B 40 AC C wins; Remove C 65AB A wins 35 B C A CA BA 25 C A B Remove A 75BC B wins CB 40 A B C 35 B C A 25 C A B 9/19/2018 rd

Arrow’s theorem implies that – irrationality is practically assured
– a customer-centered view of design is not possible The majority of methods in common use in engineering design provide results that are “egregiously in error” 9/19/2018 rd

Shapley-Shubik Power Index
Suppose representatives a, b, c, and D and E meet to decide legislation with a, b and c getting 1 vote from their small districts and D and E 2 votes. Compute the power index of each. Total vote count is 3(1) + 2(2) = 7 implying that a majority is 4. How many voting arrangements is a rep a pivotal, being the 4th vote? 3 votes must precede a's and 3 after. 2 (b or c) x 2 (D E) x 2 (eg bD or Db) x 1 (a) x 2 (eg cE or Ec)  16 ways bDa cDa bEa cEa the permutations to include the reverses given as Dba Dca Eba Eca sum to = 16 arrangements of the 5! = 120 arrangements for a power index of 16/120 = 2/15; for b and c as well. With D pivotal and 2 votes preceding, ED there are 3! votes afterwards and in reverse  12 plus 3 * 2 * 2(eg abD Ec or cE) arrangements yielding (3 * 2 * 2) + 3! = 18 * 2 = 36 for D or 36/120 = 3/10 for D & E 3/10 divided by 2/15 = D and E have a power index 2.25 over a, b and c. 36/16 = 2.25 9/19/2018 9/19/2018 rd rd 140

Number of Voters Preferences 6 a > b > c 7 b > a > c
8 c > a > b In the above election, 11 of 21 votes are required to win. Since no candidate receives a majority, a runoff is held between b and c (the two highest vote-getters), and as the voters prefer b to c, b wins the runoff. Now suppose that three voters switch their preferences from c > a > b to b > c > a. This is represented in the following table: 10 b > a > c 5 c > a > b In this case, a and b proceed to the runoff, where a ends up defeating b by 11 to 10. Thus, receiving strictly greater support in the second election caused b to change from a winning candidate to a losing candidate. 9/19/2018 rd

Utility and Choice “Some common misperceptions about utility are:
…The test of utilities is to see if they result in reasonable choices. It is common for engineers to test utility functions by examination of the reasonableness of choices. The reality is that utilities need to be tested against preferences, not choices.” Press any key to continue (to strike or not to strike) …. Preference or indifference? Perspective dependent; Does choice => Preference? When responding to the computer prompt ‘Press any key to continue,’] it seems to me here that the [revealed] preference is not which key to strike, but whether one wants to continue, or not…. The choice is whether to strike or not, not which key to strike. Myself, I always just throw my hands on the keyboard in a slapdash way to choose any key" 9/19/2018 rd

Estimate the number of M&Ms in a jar
Hazelrigg’s Example Estimate the number of M&Ms in a jar Whoever is closest without going over wins; auction bias “Conventional” approach – Create a model – Submit your best estimate “Rational” approach – Propagate uncertainty – Model the competitive scenario – Select guess for max E(u) μ and minimum Variance 9/19/2018 rd

Benefits of Decision Theory
Emphasizes the role of uncertainty in engineering design Shows that resolution among alternatives is an important criteria for handling uncertainty Brings in the influence of competitors on designs Aligns decisions with “the goal” of engineering design (profit?) Preferences are of the decision maker 9/19/2018 rd

TTH vs. HTH Pick a sequence of 3 outcomes from repeated fair coin flips. Then I will also. Whatever sequence occurs first wins. I’ll even let you pick first. “Wanna Play for some $?” (show-h-vs-t '(t t h) '(h h t)) (sim-H-vs-T '(T T H) '(H T H) 1000) (THH > HHT > HTT > TTH > THH) (t-vs-h ‘(T T H) ‘(H T H)) 9/19/2018 rd

Bloom’s Taxonomy of Educational Objectives 1. Knowledge – list, recite
2. Comprehension – explain 3. Application – apply concepts to novel situations 4. Analysis – troubleshoot 5. Synthesis – assemble new ideas or parts 6. Evaluation – judge Bloom, B. S., Krathwohl, D. R. (1984) Taxonomy of Educational Objectives, New York: Addison Wesley. explain, paraphrase, calculate, solve, predict, model, derive, design, invent, propose, judge, critique, justify 9/19/2018 rd

Pugh Matrix The Pugh Matrix is a tool that is used to help select the best design concept from among alternatives. During the process, new concepts may also be generated. Inputs & Outputs: Used to find the most effective design concept among alternatives and generate even better concepts during the process. The strength of the Pugh Matrix is in the way it supports team discussions. 9/19/2018 rd

Consider the Pugh Matrix below
Consider the Pugh Matrix below. The matrix contains 4 criteria, 3 alternatives, and a set of weights for each criteria. The rating system used is the score approach on a scale of 1 to 10. Criteria Weight Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C Number 1 20 8 4 7 Number 2 30 5 Number 3 10 6 2 Number 4 40 9/19/2018 rd

9/19/2018 rd Customer wants & needs (CTQs: Attributes)
Importance of need Design Baseline Opt #1 Opt #2 Opt #3 Opt #4 Opt #5 Opt #6 Opt #7 Opt #8 Opt #9 Opt #10 Opt #11 Opt #12 Opt #13 Opt #14 Pc. Cost comparison to existing system 5 Systems cost impact 8 Manufacturability 10 System compatability Net build at asm. Thermal range Air gap Low speed limit 4 High speed limit Resolution capability 9 Pulse width encoding Accuracy/precision Output signal level Output waveform Reliability/Durability Serviceability Materials availability Package size (mass) EMI/EMC robustness SUM 151 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Natural vs. human Static vs. dynamic Discrete vs. continuous Homogeneous vs. heterogeneous Separable vs. interactive Linear vs. nonlinear Sequential vs. simultaneous Regular vs. irregular Single vs. multiple perspectives (elephant) 9/19/2018 rd

Why “SE”? % Commitment to technology, configuration, cost etc 100 75
Cost incurred System specific knowledge 50 25 Ease of change Concept & prelim. design Detail design & development Production Use, phase-out disposal 9/19/2018 rd

Systems Engineering and Analysis

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Systems Engineering and Analysis"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback

Log in

Auth with social network:

Systems Engineering and Analysis

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Systems Engineering and Analysis"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback