1. Joint Operating Environment Director, JFCOM Futures Group
Towards 2035
Mr. Joe Purser
Director, JFCOM Futures Group
Good morning/afternoon/evening,
I’m _____________________, from U.S. Joint Forces Command.
I’d like to say thanks to ________________, from ___________________, for inviting me to join you and take this opportunity to tell you about the work the men and women of Joint Forces Command do every day for the warfighter.
Next slide, Who We Are
Mandate
To explore strategic and military futures for the United
States Joint Forces Command and Department of
Defense to inform concept and capabilities development
Products
The Joint Operating Environment (JOE)
“Annually” published Volume I
Occasional Trend Papers, Volume II
Web-based dialogue, Volume III
Joint Futures Baseline Scenarios
Conference and Special Study Reports
Distribution “A”
Requests for this document shall be referred to:
Center for Joint Futures
HQ; U.S. Joint Forces Command
112 Lakeview Parkway, Suffolk, VA
Attn: Mr. Paul Martin, Phone: 1 1

2. The Joint Operating Environment (JOE)
Provides context for the future joint force – the “demand signals” for JCDE
Reviews the trends and disruptions that will create change
Trends combine in different ways to form operational contexts that will frame future challenges
Contexts lead to implications, or challenges for the joint force
A central mission of United States Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM) in the armed forces of this country is to develop a blueprint for how our military forces will conduct future operations and to test this blueprint in the most realistic and challenging ways possible. The first step in developing this blueprint is to understand the terrain upon which our structure is to be built. For USJFCOM, this key terrain is known as the future operating environment, and the 2008 edition of the Joint Operating Environment (JOE) document is our attempt to present a compelling portrait of this terrain.
This slide gives you an idea as to the current structure of the Joint Operating Environment. We begin with a discussion of trends and disruptions that turn today’s operating environment into tomorrows. We look at how trends combine to form “operational contexts.” These context frame and define the likely challenges and opportunities that will confront the future joint force. Finally, the JOE derives a number of implications for the structure and function of our forces from the environment that we present.
We won’t get it all right – but we can’t afford to get it all wrong

3. The international environment will change – sometimes dramatically…
Demographics – migration, growth, urbanization, aging, youth bulges.
Globalization – transparency, fast-moving information and money, with global audience.
Technology – rapid rate of change, proliferation, asymmetric developments.
Scarcity of Natural Resources – food, water, energy
Rising state powers – economies, militaries, influence.
Rising power of non-state actors – growth of ideological, religious, and identity-based groups, less bound by conventions.
Weapons of Mass Destruction – Cheaper and more effective ways to kill, injure, disrupt and terrorize available to a wider array of international actors.
Here we have a set of trends that you will find in the JOE. These represent some of the large-scale forces that will turn today’s world into tomorrow’s. as you look down this list two major themes arise:
-That states are losing influence to nonstate actors and;
-That the United States is increasingly “smaller” relative to the rest of the world.
Our forces will operate in a world that features immense, ungoverned or barely governed coastal cities where masses struggle to survive. It will feature movements of humanity from undeveloped to developed states. The ability of wealthy states throughout Europe and including Japan and Russia to engage internationally will become more and more constrained as their populations plummet and the requirements of caring for aging populations shape budget and spending decisions. On the other side of the ledger, science and technology will produce new discoveries that will dramatically improve the ability to manipulate the world around us and to use resources in more efficient and effective ways. Masses of the formerly poor will be lifted from poverty as China, India, and others in East Asia join the global economy. Asia will become central to the world economy and a source of technical and scientific discovery – perhaps increasing the risk of technological surprise akin to Sputnik. Modes and norms for managing Asian relations will diverge from notions derived in Europe and North American – often to our benefit, but occasionally against our will.

4. Trends – U.S. Demographics
Retired
Cohort
Wage Earning
Schooling
AGE
85+
The Past
The Present
The Future
United States 2007
AGE
0-4 12 6 6 12
Male
Female
Millions
United States 2030
United States Census Bureau.

5. Trends – World Demographics
Demographics: Population by Age
Eight billion people in the world by 2025 (2 billion more than today).
Nearly all growth in the developing world.
Absolute decline in Europe, Japan, Russia, and Korea.
The U.S. will add 50 million people by 2025 (unique among the developed countries of the world).
Russia
Germany
Japan
United States
China
Mexico
Brazil
Nigeria
Yemen
Population Reference Bureau
World Population 2008: 6.7 Billion 8 6 4 2
India

6. Trends - Migration & Population Change
Some of the world’s most important current migration routes
SOURCES: National Public Radio The Economist
Distance no object
The Global Movement of Peoples
Unprecedented migrant flows around the world.
Muslims/Africans to Europe.
Chinese to Siberia, Central Asians to Russia
Indigenous Europeans to U.S./Australia/Canada
Latin Americans to the United States
Movement toward areas of effective governance and to cities (whether well governed or not).
Away from areas of famine, drought, floods, or other climatic disasters.
Brain drain of skilled classes from the undeveloped world.

7. Major Urban Environments
World’s Largest
Cities
2005
2020
Tokyo
Mexico City
Mumbai
New York
Sao Paulo
Delhi
Calcutta
Dacca
Lagos
As of last year >50% of the world’s population lived in cities. Rural growth is flat.
By 2030, 65 % of humanity will live in cities – 5½ billion human beings.
Large urban areas are usually near the oceans and subject to severe environmental, social, and political pressures.

8. Trends - Economics and Globalization
The Rise of new Asian Economic Powers will re-define the Global Economy
11 countries in the developing world with populations over 100 million and GDP over $100 billion.
China, Russia, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Vietnam
Changing Balance of Creditor and Debtor Nations
US $ under assault as World Reserve Currency
Regional Share of the Global Economy (%)
North America
East Asia EU
Other
South Asia
2008 33 19 31 17
- -
2025 30 16 11 13
Snapshot: Global Trade and Finance 2030 based on a posited baseline growth rate of 2.5% for developed world and 4.5% for developing world
World economy doubles, from $35 trillion to $72 trillion.
Global trade triples to $27 trillion.
Persons in extreme poverty down from 1.1 billion to 550 million.
11 countries in the developing world with populations over 100 million and GDP over $100 billion.
China, Russia, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
Will the financial crisis change these assumptions?
Reversal of globalization would constitute a major shock with dramatic consequences

9. Trends - Remittances
Remittance Outflows
U.S. – $42.2 billion
Japan – $3.4 billion
Europe – 25.4 billion
Gulf – $20.1 billion
Remittance Inflows (minus Western Europe)
India – $27 billion
China – $25.7 billion
Mexico – $25 billion
Philippines – $17 billion
Bangladesh – $6.4 billion
Pakistan – $6.1 billion
Indonesia – $6.0 billion
Egypt – $5.9 billion
Morocco – $5.7 billion
Lebanon – $5.5 billion
(European states in the top 10 – #5 France, #6 Spain, #7 Belgium, #8 Germany, #9 U.K., #10 Romania)
Top Remittance Recipients (as % of GDP)
Tajikistan – 36%
Moldova – 36%
Tonga – 32%
Kyrgyz Republic – 27%
Honduras – 26%
Lesotho – 24%
Guyana – 24%
Lebanon – 23%
Haiti – 22%
Jordan – 20% --
Source: Migration and Remittances Handbook, Development Prospects Group, World Bank (2006)
Remittance Inflows
Pakistan – $6.1 billion
Indonesia – $6.0 billion
Egypt – $5.9 billion
Morocco – $5.7 billion
Lebanon – $5.5 billion
India – $27 billion
China – $25.7 billion
Mexico – $25 billion
Philippines – $17 billion
Bangladesh – $6.4 billion
Remittance Outflows
U.S. – $42.2 billion
Japan – $3.4 billion
Europe – 25.4 billion
Gulf – $20.1 billion
Total remittances sent home by foreign workers exceeds the value
of all foreign aid and foreign capital investments combined
The single greatest income source for many developing countries
Source: Migration and Remittances Handbook, Development Prospects Group, World Bank (2006)

10. Trends - Resource Scarcity: Water & Food
Food Disruptions and Embargos
Percent of humanity subject to water scarcity:
2025: 10%
2050: up to 33%
Growing concerns over food scarcity. In 2008:
19 Grain Export Embargos
10 riots due to food distribution anomalies
The Meaning of Food and Water Scarcity
Increasing stress on water supplies, desertification and shifting growth bands impact
water and food production and affect regional politics.
Potential for Agflation as water, oil for fertilizer, increasingly scarce land, and overall
demand drive up the cost of food.
Prices increasing as China, India, and others industrialize, leading to greater
competition over natural resources
As prices for energy, raw materials, and water rise, marginal populations may once again face famine and disease in the poorest parts of the world.
Do current technology investments increase prosperity per unit of natural resource input?
If technological innovation wins, then the trend towards greater global prosperity will continue.
Rising population and widespread development cause greater demand for natural resources (food, water, energy).
WORLD FOOD CRISIS
Sept. 7, 2007: Vietnam, the world's third-biggest rice exporter, restricts rice exports to slow inflation.
Dec. 4: Argentina temporarily restricts grain exports.
Jan. 1: China, the world's biggest grain producer, starts to curb overseas sales of wheat, corn and rice by issuing export permits.
Jan. 19: Egypt bans rice exports.
Feb. 8: The American Bakers Association asks the U.S. Department of Agriculture to curb wheat exports.
Feb. 27: At least four people are killed during three days of protests over high commodity prices in Cameroon.
March: Philippines authorities begin to crack down on hoarders.
March 17: India halts all exports of non-basmati rice. It also extends an existing export ban on crops such as peas and beans.
March 28: Vietnam extends rice export restrictions.
April 4: Haitians riot over rising food prices. At least three people are killed.
April 6: Egyptians riot over rising food prices.
April 9: Corn commodities on the Chicago Board of Trade reach a record $6.16 a bushel.
April 12: Police clash with 10,000 workers in Bangladesh who smashed vehicles and attacked factories, demanding higher wages to pay for food. The Haitian prime minister is forced to step down in an attempt to defuse anger over food prices. A U.N. police officer bringing food to his unit in Port-au-Prince is killed.
April 14: U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon says that a global food crisis has reached "emergency proportions." The World Bank has forecast that 33 nations from Mexico to Yemen may face social unrest.
April 16: Malawi plans to restrict corn exports.
April 17: Kazakhstan, the world's sixth-largest wheat exporter, bans wheat exports between April 27 and Sept.1.
April 18: India permits rice exports to Bhutan.
Indonesia, the world's third-largest rice producer, says it will hold back surplus rice.
Tuesday: Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, is under pressure to restrict exports. A World Bank official likens any restriction to Saudi Arabia reducing oil exports.
Water scarcity figures from World Resources Institute.

11. Trends - Resource Scarcity: Energy
According to current trends, petroleum and coal will continue to be the energy resource in greatest demand. China uses more coal than the United States, the European Union and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14 percent in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China that is big enough to serve all the households in Dallas or San Diego. India opens one every two-three weeks. Energy innovation will have the most dramatic geopolitical consequences of all decisively shifting the balance of power away from producers and towards importers.
The Meaning of Energy Competition
Energy demand follows population and economic growth.
Developing countries with increasing demand seek to transition to developed status.
Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives arrive.
For China alone to develop a Western middle-class would require all the world’s current energy resources.
Should encourage innovation and energy diversity

12. Trends - Resource Scarcity: Energy
Future World Oil Production
118 mb/d ?
Non-conventional
Products and techniques
Era of Peak Oil
Enhanced
recoveries
The existing capacity of global oil production will not meet the needs of increasing demand. We are in an era of peak oil production. We will have to develop known reserves with increased investment in infrastructure. That investment is not yet occurring, and even if it were, this would only see us a little past Enhanced recovery techniques, such as water injection may help a little, but will serve to deplete known supplies mush more rapidly. For oil to continue to meet demands out to 2030, we will need to explore non-conventional techniques that have here-to-fore been not cost effective (oil shale, tar sands). Yet, this will not meet all demand the trends indicate 118 mil barrel/day.
Development of
known reserves
Existing Capacity
The Meaning of Energy Competition
Energy demand follows population and economic growth.
Developing countries with increasing demand seek to transition to developed status.
Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives arrive.
For China alone to develop a Western middle-class would require all the world’s current energy resources.
Should encourage innovation and energy diversity

13. Trends – CO2, Temperatures, Sea Level Rise
Atmospheric Concentration
of CO2
CO2 levels in the atmosphere 100% greater today than 100 years ago.
Global avg. temperature has increased ~1.5 degrees.
Sea levels rise as global temperature increases.
For every 1 cm of vertical sea rise, 1-10 m of coastline is inundated.

14. Trends – Risks from Sea Level Rise and Storms
Beijing
New York
Los Angeles
Tokyo
Delhi
Shanghai
Cairo
Dacca
Karachi
Mexico City
Mumbai
Calcutta
Lagos
Jakarta
Rio de Janeiro
Key
= Big Risk
= Moderate Risk
Sao Paulo
Buenos Aires
Data from the UN Habitat State of the World’s Cities 2008/9
Two-thirds of major urban areas are partially in the 0-10meter zone.
21 % of the urban populations of the least developed nations are in the zone.
About 75% of people in the zone are in Asia.
Poor countries — and poor communities within them — are most at risk.

15. Trends – Access to New “Key Terrain”
Major Space Launch Sites
Mapped to Antipodes
Lagrange point – a point of gravitational balance in the earth-moon system (or the earth-sun, or any other two celestial bodies). “everything is “down” from a lagrange point, and is the “commanding terrain” in a gravity well.
Antipode: the precise opposite point on the globe. When launching into orbit, a satellite must first pass over the antipode of the launch site. These sites may be key terrain in the future as they may be a key feature in blockading a spacefaring nation from orbit.
The Future of “Key Terrain”
Geographic Features, trade routes, ports and airfields will remain important terrain features for the joint force commander to consider; while orbital slots, launch site antipodes, …

16. Links – The Cyber Commons
Undersea cable
Internet capacity
Internet users affected by outage
… littoral undersea environments, fiber-optic and server hubs may be equally important in the future.
DNS Root Server Locations

17. Trends - Cyber & Information Technologies
Snapshot:
Global Network 2030
Real world simulated in virtual environments
Real-time “Google Earth?”
Immersive environments
Real word infused with embedded computation
Meta-tagged world
Augmented reality
Real and Virtual Worlds merge.
Infosphere with 6 billion “human brain” equivalent – nearing the total processing power of humanity itself.

18. Trends - Cyber & Information Technologies
The Military Implications of Information Technologies
Accelerating information technologies with increasing data management and computing power provide opportunities and challenges.
Adversaries will challenge our control of computer networks, data, and any machine connected to the information domain.
Ubiquitous, personalized media allow rapid perception shaping by any group.
Adversaries will challenge us by constructing opposing “strategic narratives” distributed throughout multiple networks to change beliefs, perceptions, attitudes and behaviors in their favor.

19. Waves of IT Industry Growth in the Information Age
10,000
1,000
The Military Implications of Information Technologies
Accelerating information technologies with increasing data management and computing power provide opportunities and challenges.
Adversaries will challenge our control of computer networks, data, and any machine connected to the information domain.
Ubiquitous, personalized media allow rapid perception shaping by any group.
Adversaries will challenge us by constructing opposing “strategic narratives” distributed throughout multiple networks to change beliefs, perceptions, attitudes and behaviors in their favor.
LEGEND:
BLUE: Systems-Centric
RED: PC-Centric
GREEN: Network-Centric
BLACK: Content-Centric
Millions of Users
100 10 1
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
SOURCE: David Moschella, “Waves of Power”

20. Trends - Emerging Technological Challenges
Mass being offset by increased precision at greater ranges at decreasing cost. All adversaries will have access to precision anti-access weaponry.
Accelerated information technologies and massive latent computing capacity creates massive parallel network computing.
ISR will get even more intrusive and ubiquitous, requiring tremendous new information storage, processing dissemination, and security capabilities.
Advanced space navigation and remote sensing more widely available.
Longer-range and more-precise weapons will be available to a wider community for a much lower price.
Confront the possibility that U.S. and others may no longer be able to operate freely in the global commons (air, sea, space)
Will have significant effect on the ability of a state or non-state to deny access
This proliferation, combined with WMD proliferation and the forces of globalization, will also have a profound effect on homeland defense
Through ubiquitous and personalized media, adversaries can directly communicate with the American people – a center of gravity
Blurs the distinction between strategic and tactical
The narrative will be a dominant factor in future operations

21. …leading to Contexts of Conflict and War
Cooperation and Competition among conventional (state) powers will provide a number of challenges and threats to the joint force
Weak and failing states will require engagement and cooperation
Large, sprawling urban areas with dynamic pressures in which the joint force must operate
Threats from Unconventional states and non-state powers that will confront us with new and innovative ways to wage war
Battle of the Narrative will bring populations directly in touch with joint force operations and shape perceptions
Defense of the US Homeland will require operations abroad and at home
Our challenge in the JOE is to resolve these many complex and disparate trends and translate them into hard-hitting operational-level challenges. The device that we are using to make this transition from fairly strategic-level tectonic forces to the operational level is the idea of “contexts.” These are troubling “knots” of problems were technological, geopolitical, legal, social, and demographic trends merge. Together, these context describe a potential set of facts or circumstances that might explain how and why wars might be waged.
Keeping in mind that the context of all was is political, and as such relates to the relative power among two or more contestants.
Contexts are the confluence of two or more trends and
illuminate why wars occur and how they might be waged.

22. Context: Cooperation and Competition Among Conventional Powers
Potential Future Examples
Rise of China and India
Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Relations with Europe, Japan, Korea
Russia’s “Frontier of Instability”
Historical Examples
Congress of Vienna
Monroe Doctrine
World War II
Cold War
China
Agreements between like-minded states will be important.
U.S. will not engage alone
Will operate as part of a multi-national coalition and alliances
Joint force must continue to be able to operate with partners
Informal agreements and understandings will be just as important among states with common aims
Potential For Conflict
Relative balance of military and economic power shifts
New combinations of regional powers/alliances
Struggle for control of international organizations
Risks
Growing powers not accommodated or properly represented in international forums
Emergence of unfavorable balances of power
Breakup of traditional alliances
Loss of access to Global Commons
Forced U.S. isolation
Implications for the Joint Force
Longer-range, more-precise weapons are more widely available and cheaper
Ubiquitous Anti-Access Weapons
U.S. and others may no longer be able to operate freely in the global commons (air, sea, space).
Technology, WMD proliferation, and globalization will bring homeland into reach.
The joint force will have a role preventing conflicts between other great states.

23. Context: Weak and Failing States
Historical Examples
Ottoman Empire
China
Soviet Union
Yugoslavia
Congo
Somalia
Haiti
Potential Future Examples
North Korea
Mexico
Nigeria
Pakistan
Zimbabwe
Potential For Conflict
At-risk states are:
Politically unstable
Challenged by rebels and terrorists
May resort to mass killings of civilians
Enmeshed in international crises
Risks
77% of all conflicts involve an unstable or failing state
Failed/Failing State = threat to international peace
Havens for disruptive non-state actors
Implications for the Joint Force
Early identification and diagnosis
Responding to early signs of trouble
Capabilities to enhance or restore stability
Mitigate effects of state failure

24. Context: Security In Urban Environments
Historical Examples
Hue
Beirut
Sarajevo
Grozny
Fallujah
Baghdad
Potential Future Examples
Sao Paulo
Karachi
Dacca
Cairo
Lagos
Jakarta
Demographics, combined with the stressing challenges of urban operations, require that we continue to pay attention to better ways to provide security in an urban environment
Large, sprawling cities on the rise, and 5 of the world’s 8.5 billion people will live there in Many in developing world, where stability is weakest, and subject to severe environmental, social, and political pressures. Urban environments present perhaps the most stressing case for future operation and will place high demands on capabilities such as:
Data management
Cultural awareness
Security and rule of law
Sanitation
Food distribution.
Energy management
Target identification
Lethal operations
Note, that some of these are not traditional “military” functions, and we will have to figure out how to provide “governance and infrastructure packages” that allow us to separate insurgent adversaries from the populations in which they are embedded, as well as create a stable and attractive order that draws strenght from an irregular opponent fighting in cities. Together, urban operations present enough probable, unique and stressing challenges that it requires special attention
Governance & stability packages include: Cultural Awareness; Energy Management; ISR, Data Management, Target Identification; Security and Rule of Law; Sanitation; and Food.
Also has a homeland security application – some lessons apply many lessons to our own cities in case of disaster or attack.
Implications for the Joint Force
Shelter from U.S. advantages in ISR and fires
U.S. must separate adversaries from noncombatant civilian populations
Governance & stability packages
High casualty rates
Context for Homeland Security as well
Potential For Conflict
Wars occur where humans live.
Most human wealth is located in cities
Cities provide places to hide
Connects to:
Financial resources
Travel systems
Communication networks
Risks
Humanitarian disaster
Haven for international terrorists
Fortress for conventional forces

25. Contexts: Threats from Unconventional Powers
Historical Examples
COMINTERN
Viet Cong
Hezbollah
Tamil Tigers
Al Qaida
North Korea
Potential Future Examples
North Korea
Iran
‘Hybrid’ Militias and Proxies
Regional/Global Criminal Gangs
Transnational corporations
“Transnational organizations try to ignore sovereignty. While national representatives and delegations engage in endless debate at U.N. conferences and councils, the agents of transnational organizations are busily deployed across the continents, spinning the webs that link the world together.
Shifting Western identities important as well:
Emerging “super-national” European identity
Individualism vs. residual statist/socialist/paternalist world-view
Global business/economic oriented class
Transnational governance class (i.e. “citizen of the world”, e.g. NGOs)
Human migration and ubiquitous communications complicate identities:
Sometimes away from the state/race/nationality
Towards religions/personalities
Sometimes reinforcing links among geographically distributed diasporas (overseas Chinese, Islam, other ethnic groups))
Increasingly confident Asian perspective influencing culture and development.
Implications for the Joint Force
Battle of Narratives.
Changing Means of Deterrence
Able to take advantage of the forces of globalization
Will fight without adherence to formal ‘rules of war’
Requires source of Legitimacy and Comprehensive Approach
Potential For Conflict
Groups and States not bound by conventions
Identity-based ideology
Ideology-based identities
Definitions of ‘Modernity’
Weakening of Western Ideas and Ideals
Risks
Erosion of convention-based international system
Global Terrorism
WMD Proliferation

26. Contexts: Battle of Narratives over Global Networks
Potential Future Examples
Patriotic Hacktivists
Sunni Extremists/ AQ 2.0
Iranian Proxies/Shia Extremists
Transnational corporations
Historical Examples
Vietnam War
Hezbollah
Al Qaida
“Transnational organizations try to ignore sovereignty. While national representatives and delegations engage in endless debate at U.N. conferences and councils, the agents of transnational organizations are busily deployed across the continents, spinning the webs that link the world together.
Shifting Western identities important as well:
Emerging “super-national” European identity
Individualism vs. residual statist/socialist/paternalist world-view
Global business/economic oriented class
Transnational governance class (i.e. “citizen of the world”, e.g. NGOs)
Human migration and ubiquitous communications complicate identities:
Sometimes away from the state/race/nationality
Towards religions/personalities
Sometimes reinforcing links among geographically distributed diasporas (overseas Chinese, Islam, other ethnic groups))
Increasingly confident Asian perspective influencing culture and development.
Potential For Conflict
Identity rooted in social and cultural blood and soil connections.
States must increasingly compete for allegiance.
Human migration and ubiquitous communications complicate identities.
Changing politics in developed countries
Implications for the Joint Force
Battle of Narratives.
Identities forged via the internet and other communications technologies.
Able to take advantage of the forces of globalization
Local conflicts have Global impact
NGO’s can help with local cultural awareness.
Risks
Erosion of state-based international system.
“Democratization of Violence.”
Global Terrorism

27. Context: Protection of the Homeland
Historical Examples
War of 1812
Villa Incursion
Pearl Harbor
Anthrax Attacks
Hurricane Katrina
Infiltration of Illegal Immigrants
Potential Future Examples
Pandemic/Natural Disaster
Border Defense
National Missile Defense
Adversary use of Media
Cybersecurity against massive cyberattack
Terrorism/SOF Infiltration
Secession/Rebellion
Protection of “homeland” may include elements of cyberspace, but where does joint force responsibility end and personal/corporate/government agency responsibility begin?
Potential For Conflict
Homeland no longer “off limits” for adversaries
Greater technological reach by adversaries
More access to the U.S. through ports/airlines/computer networks/space/ISR
Federalization of natural disasters
Risks
Domestic security concerns overwhelm local/state authorities
Access to our population
US unable to secure its borders from multiple, overlapping challenges
Implications for the Joint Force
Increased role for the Joint Force in domestic disasters
Attacks against the Joint Force at home bases possible.
WMD attacks on key US nodes
Protection of “homeland” will include elements of cyberspace
Direct “attacks” against U.S. perceptions and National Will

28. Implications - Adaptability of Future Adversaries
Adversaries do not wage discrete land, sea, air, space or cyberspace wars - Instead, they use all elements of power to wage war
Adversaries are examining the U.S. way of war, and developing different technical capabilities to negate U.S technological advantages or to exploit technologies as military capabilities
Adversaries will adapt military practice to:
construct a mix of conventional, irregular warfare, and nuclear threats
blur the line between political conflict and open war
place U.S. forces in strategic dilemmas by developing strategies to avoid our advantages and confront us with their own asymmetries.
They will use:
Globally ranging networks and open-source capabilities (internet, commercial navigation and imagery)
Increasing technical equality to make anti-access strategies challenging in all domains.
Mobility, mass, information, and precision fires on U.S. forces while denying our ability to respond
In recent years, the United States has developed and invested an array of military technologies to further increase the vision and precision of sensors and weapons. Likewise, adversaries are examining the U.S. way of war, and developing and assembling different technical capabilities to negate U.S technological advantages or to exploit technologies such as civilian aircraft and the internet – as military capabilities.
Emerging Global or Regional Powers with Conventional and Nuclear capabilities
Transnational ideologically-based terrorist networks
National or regional insurgent or militia forces
International criminal networks
Super-empowered individuals with access to knowledge and money.
These classes of adversary are not exclusive to one another; future challengers will feature combinations For example:
States with insurgent or terrorist proxies.
Transnational terrorist networks leveraging regional insurgent or criminal networks.
States which are essentially criminal enterprises.
The joint force will be faced with a range of conventional and irregular challenges
Conventional competition and conflict with established and rising states over influence and resources
Due to the proliferation of technology, these states will likely field forces with longer-range and more precise weapons at far lower cost, and increase the likelihood of tactical surprise
Due to the proliferation, many of these states will likely have a nuclear or other WMD capability
Conventional state adversaries will blend conventional, non-conventional, and irregular methods as it suits their aims
Iran, North Korea, and others are both nations and networks
Iran is especially influential as the sponsor for radical Shia proxy networks across South Asian “arc of instability”
Some states are essentially criminal enterprises, some resort to gangsterism - random violence to control their populations
Will use conventional and non-conventional power as it advances their aims
Non-conventional sponsorship and action will be difficult to attribute – information will be perishable
Requires rapid, surgical, and lethal action when needed
Will require improved understanding of information and influence
Opportunity to partner with like-minded non-state, non-conventional actors in theater
It is more likely in the future that a nuclear weapon or some other WMD will be used
Joint force must think about the implications of this – has not been done in decades (since 1950’s and 1960’s?)
How to counter proliferation to minimize spread
How to deter new nuclear powers from using weapons (new calculus)
How to operate in battlespace when nuclear weapons have been used
How to bring a conflict to quickest possible termination, including escalation control
How to restore security, safety and stability in post-WMD environment
This extends to conflicts between other states/powers
e.g. Iran vs. Israel, India vs. China, Hezbollah vs. Israel

29. Some Leading Questions
Professional Military Education
PME must develop broad understanding of the world
More detailed cultural training and awareness
Personnel Systems
Transform mobilization-based development paradigm
Incentivize adaptability and innovation
Defense Economics and Acquisition
Adversaries outpacing our system
Tempo of acquisition is having strategic effects
Nature: Closer to Agincourt than Starship troopers. Uncertainty about the form, location, level of commitment, contribution of potential allies, and the nature of the enemy. Employment of force will be highly conditioned by politics, and will require a clear understanding of political and strategic goals while planning and conducting military operations.
Preparing: Worst case – war with another great power. Likelihood of nuclear use by adversaries in future conflicts. Must be able to meet a wide range of threats. Address the “tyranny of distance” as the U.S. is a long way from Eurasia. Attempts to deny U.S. entry politically and militarily.
Conduct: More irregular or surprising means of conducting war. Asymmetry of values, goals and interests between the U.S. and its adversaries. Terrorist and unconventional attacks on the homeland. Presence of actors that are not states – often using lawfare or disregarding western moral or treaty constraints. Persistent media coverage – adversaries can access U.S. culture and society to shape U.S. perceptions.
PME: 2030 CJCS is on duty today. That world will demand intellectual curiosity, and an ability to understand the world in political, cultural, psychological, and historical terms. PME must impart the ability to think critically and creatively, drawing from history, anthropology, economics, geopolitics, cultural studies, the ‘hard’ sciences, law and strategic communications.
Acquisition: slow acquisition policies having real (negative) strategic effects.
Personnel: Must transform from industrial-age, mobilization-based leader development paradigm. Need a revolution in the way we train and educate our military leaders.

30. US Spending vs. Tax Revenues as a Percentage of GDP
2009 Stimulus
+5.7% GDP
2008 Stabilization Act
+5% GDP
The Department of Defense will have to make due with less. All the categories, except for Defense and “Other” are on autopilot and will not be changed, barring major legislative changes.
Heritage Foundation: A Rude Way to Wake Up to the Fiscal Crisis. (based on GAO and CBO baseline estimates. We’ve added the 700 billion from the emergency stabilization act this year, accounting for some 5% of GDP…the average similar financial rescue in the 21st century costs 13% of GDP for the country.
The current configuration of government entitlements, plus interest on the debt will pinch discretionary spending as government takes an increasing share of national revenue

31. Much about conflict will remain the same…
War is a human endeavor
War is an extension of policy
Local political considerations will (continue) to dominate.
Democratization of politics, by extension, will be the democratization of war.
Our enemies will continue to target our vulnerabilities
Enemy is a willful, learning, and adaptive force
The enemy will likely be able to learn and adapt faster than we can unless we change
Friction is unavoidable – technology can not erase it
Surprise will continue to be a major factor – maybe the dominant factor
There will be much about the nature of war that will not change for the foreseeable future
War as a human endeavor – after three millennia, we are still closer to Agincourt than to Heinlein
Friction
War as an extension of policy
Democratization of politics, by extension, will be the democratization of war – in addition to the armed force, the people’s will continue to be a target to the degree that the people can influence policy
Local politics, not only U.S. local politics, but also the local politics of our allies and adversaries, will continue to play a dominant role in the decision to employ the joint force, and the conduct of the operation once employed
Enemy will continue to target our vulnerabilities, where he sees he can find parity or an advantage
Enemy will continue to be a learning, adapting force
Unbound by the conventions, centralization, and bureaucracy that restrict the current joint force, the enemy will likely be able to learn and adapt faster than we will unless we change
Surprise will continue to be a major factor – maybe the dominant factor
Will not be able to see it coming
But must keep looking
Must build a force that is agile, responsive, adaptable, resilient
So that no surprise will be fatal
Will have minimal regrets the morning after
Must build a force that is adaptable, agile, and resilient

32. Center for Joint Futures
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