1. Environment Canada / GPC Montreal
Assessment, research and development
Bill Merryfield
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)
with contributions from colleagues at CCCma and CMC
WGSIP 17, 13 September 2015

2. The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)
Developed at CCCma
Operational at CMC since Dec 2011
2 models CanCM3/4, 10 ensemble members each
Hindcast verification period =
Forecast range = 12 months
Forecasts initialized at the start of every month
Merryfield et al., Mon. Wea. Rev. (2013)

4. El Niño forecast
CanSIPS from Sep 2015
CanSIPS from Sep 1997
most likely won’t quite beat event, although plumes do overlap

5. When did this El Nino become predictable?
miss
miss
hit
hit

6. 2015 El Niño forecasts T2m, Precip, SST from Sep 2015 T2m, DJF 2015-16
Precip, DJF
SST anom, DJF
SST anom, JJA 2016

7. Product development – climate indices
WMO Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub- seasonal to Long-Time Scales (ET-OPSLS) in their March meeting “highly recommended for GPCs running coupled-model systems” to produce and disseminate predictions of many climate indices, with tropical SST indices as a starting point

8. Oceanic Indices (http://ioc-goos-oopc.org/state_of_the_ocean/sur/)
Pacific :
1.Niño1+2 : SST Anomalies in the box 90W - 80W, 10S - 0.
2.Niño3 : SST Anomalies in the box 150°W - 90°W, 5S - 5N.
3.Niño4 : SST Anomalies in the box 160°E - 150°W, 5°S - 5°N
4.Niño3.4 : SST Anomalies in the box 170°W - 120°W, 5°S - 5°N
5.El Niño Modoki Index (EMI)
EMI = SSTA(165E-140W, 10S-10N)-0.5*SSTA (110W-70W, 15S-5N)-0.5*SSTA (125E-145E, 10S-20N
6.Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO)
The leading principal component of monthly sea surface temperature
anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean poleward of 20N
Atlantic :
North Atlantic Tropical SST index(NAT) :
SST anomalies in the box 40°W - 20°W, 5°N - 20°
2. South Atlantic Tropical SST index(SAT):
SST anomalies in the box 15°W - 5°E, 5°S - 5°N
3. TASI = NAT – SAT
4. Tropical Northern Atlantic index(TNA): SST anomalies in the box 55°W - 15°W, 5°N -25°N
5. Tropical Southern Atlantic index(TSA): SST anomalies in the box 30°W - 10°E, 20°S – EQ
6. Tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD): TNA – TSA
Indian Ocean :
1. Western Tropical Indian Ocean SST index (WTIO)
: SST anomalies in the box 50°E - 70°E, 10°S - 10°N
2. Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean SST index(SETIO)
: SST anomalies in the box 90°E - 110°E, 10°S - 0°
3. South Western Indian Ocean SST index(SWIO)
: SST anomalies in the box 31°E - 45°E, 32°S - 25°S
4. Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (IOD): WTIO - SETIO
Initial highly recommended indices are in red

9. SST index examples PDO from Sep 2015 IOD from Sep 2015
anomaly corr skill
PDO
from
Sep 2015
IOD
from
Sep 2015

10. Product development – snow
Snow water equivalent (SWE) relatively predictable due to (i) tendency for SWE anomalies to persist through snow season and (ii) skill in predicting climate, particularly ENSO in certain locations
potential predictability
anomaly persistence
Verification scores improved by using blend of 5 SWE analyses developed by Mudryk et al. (J . Hydromet )
Mission Ridge, BC
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr+1
N Hemisphere mean anomaly correlation
Best: B5 (Mudryk et al.)
Good: M (MERRA)
EI-L (ERA-Int Land)
Worse: M-L (MERRA Land)
EI (ERA-Int)
Sospedra-Alfonso et al. in prep.

11. Model developments
New model CGEM being evaluated for inclusion in CanSIPS
- Atm: GEM NWP model 1.4, 79 levels, top at hPa
- Ocn: NEMO/ORCA1, 50 levels, CICE
- Init: perturbed ERA-Int for atm, ORA-S4 for ocean
- First-month skill over land > CanCM3/4
- Nino3.4 skill > CanCM3, < CanCM4
- ENSO variability very sensitive to deep convection scheme
CCCma has started to evaluate CanESM4.1 for prediction
- Terrestrial & ocean ecosystem components
- Improved atm & ocean physics
Surface chlorophyll in assimilating CanESM4.1

12. Experimental downscaling of CanSIPS forecasts
CORDEX North America grid (0.44/50 km or 0.22/25 km resolution)
initialized from downscaled assimilation runs
Can be run concurrently with global forecasts
Potential to become operational if added value is demonstrated
Hindcasts underway
January climatological precipitation
CanCM4 global x300km
(forecasts)
CanRCM4 regional x25km
(assimilating run)
mm/day
mm/day

14. Monsoon Indices Pacific : 1. Western North Pacific Monsoon Index
WNPMI = U850 (5ºN -15ºN, 90ºE-130ºE) – U850 (22.5ºN ºN, 110ºE-140ºE)
Wang, B., and Z. Fan, 1999: Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 629–638.
2. Australian Summer Monsoon Index
AUSMI = U850 averaged over 5ºS-15ºS, 110ºE-130ºE
Kajikawa, Y., B. Wang and J. Yang, 2010: A multi-time scale Australian monsoon index, Int. J. Climatol, 30,
3. South Asia Monsoon Index
SAMI= V850-V200 averaged over 10ºN -30ºN, 70ºE-110ºE
Goswami, B. N., B. Krishnamurthy, and H. Annama lai, 1999: A broad-scale circulation index for interannual variability of
the Indian summer monsoon. Quart. J. Roy.. Meteorol. Soc., 125,
4. East Asian Monsoon Index
EASMI= U850(22.5°–32.5°N, 110°–140°E) - U850 (5°–15°N, 90°–130°E)
Wang, Bin, Zhiwei Wu, Jianping Li, Jian Liu, Chih-Pei Chang, Yihui Ding, Guoxiong Wu, 2008: How to Measure the Strength of
the East Asian Summer Monsoon. J. Climate, 21, 4449–4463. doi:
Indian :
1. Indian Monsoon Index
IMI=U850(5ºN -15ºN, 40ºE-80ºE) – U850(20ºN -30ºN, 70ºE-90ºE)
Wang, B., R. Wu, and K-M. Lau, 2001: Interannual variability of
Asian summer monsoon: Contrast between the Indian and western
North Pacific–East Asian monsoons. J. Climate, 14, 4073–4090.
2. Webster-Yang Monsoon Index
WYMI=U850-U200 averaged over 0-20ºN, 40ºE-110ºE
Webster, P. J., and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively
interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118,
from May 2015

15. CanSIPS Explorer Developed and maintained at CCCma by Slava Kharin
Displays all monthly, seasonal hind/forecasts + verifications 1979-present + skills
Calibrated probabilistic forecasts (maps & local PDFs) for many variables, regions, indices
Monthly to 12 mon
“ “ sf2_daily
username: cccmasf
password: seasforum
Daily N-day, monthly & seasonal forecasts