1. Moscow, IKI, 5 June 2012 Космические лучи как фактор и как инструмент для предсказания влияния космической погоды на биосферу Lev Dorman (a, b) (a)Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, Troitsk, Moscow, Russia (b)Israel Cosmic Ray & Space Weather Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, Israel

2. Работа состоит из двух частей. В первой части приводятся результаты ряда анализов длительных рядов ежедневных показателей инфарктов миокарда, инсультов, а также автомобильных инцидентов с тяжелым исходом в спокой- ное время и в периоды сильных Форбуш-понижений интен- сивности космических лучей. Обнаружено существенное (7- 9 сигма) возрастание ежедневного числа инфарктов миокарда, инсультов, а также автомобильных катастроф в периоды мощных магнитных бурь, сопровождаемых сильными Форбуш-понижениями интенсивности космичес- ких лучей. Показано, что в данном случае космические лучи практически не воздействуют на здоровье людей, но явля- ются индикатором воздействия космической погоды (коро- нальных выбросов плазмы и межпланетных ударных волн) на магнитосферу Земли и через это воздействие – на здо- ровье людей. Показано также как непрерывные наблюде- ния космических лучей могут быть использованы для пред- сказания ситуаций космической погоды, опасных для здо- ровья людей и тем самым резко снизить риск получения инфарктов миокарда, инсультов, а также автомобильных инцидентов с тяжелым исходом.

3. Во второй части мы рассматриваем прямое воздействие космических лучей на биосферу (так называемые радиационные эффекты). Дело в том, что под огромной толщей атмосферы (около 1000 грамм на см2) поток космических лучей уменьшается почти в сто раз. Тем не менее, поток мюонов и релятивистских электронов у земной поверхности составляет около миллиона на квадратный метр за один час, причем каждая космическая частица в теле человека создает около 50000 ионов и разрушений молекул на сантиметре пути. Кроме того, в резуль- тате каскадных процессов возникает поток нейтронов, свободно прони- кающих вглубь объектов биосферы и производящих различные ядер- ные реакции. За многие миллионы лет биосфера практически адапти- ровалась к этим потокам космических лучей (более того, космические лучи сыграли решающую роль в существенном ускорении эволюции биосферы и довольно быстром появлении человека). Однако, когда потоки космических лучей возрастают в несколько раз (как во время очень мощных солнечных вспышек или при полетах на современных самолетах на высоте около 10 км), или даже в многие десятки раз (как при полетах на спутниках в магнитосфере Земли или на космических кораблях в межпланетном пространстве), радиационная опасность становится существенной. Мы описываем разработанный нами метод предсказания ожидаемой радиационной опасности от мощных солне- чных вспышек в атмосфере в зависимости от высоты и жесткости гео- магнитного обрезания, а также для спутников и космических кораблей на основе минутных данных наблюдений космических лучей на нейт- ронных мониторах и спутниках.

4. Part 1. Cosmic rays and space weather influence on atmosphere processes and global/local climate change Determining of the part of global climate change caused by the long-term change of CR intensity through influence on air ionization and planetary clouds formation; examples from the past; method of forecasting of the part of global climate change caused by space weather effects

5. CR intensity according to Huancayo/Haleakala NM (cut off rigidity 12.9 GV, normalized to October 1965, curve 2) in comparison with global average of monthly cloud coverage anomalies (curves 1) for: a – high clouds, H > 6.5 km, b – middle clouds, 6.5 km >H > 3.2 km, and c – low clouds, H < 3.2 km. According to Marsh and Swensmark (2000a).

6. Situation in the Maunder minimum: a) variation in reconstructed solar irradiance from Lean et al. (1995); b) variation in concentration from Beer et al. (1991); c) reconstructed air surface temperature for the northern hemisphere from Jones et al. (1998). According to Swensmark (2000).

7. 18. Global Climate Change and Volcano Eruptions Yearly average values of the global air temperature, t, near the Earth’s surface for the period from 1880. Arrows show the dates of the volcano erup with the dust emission to the stratosphere and short times cooling after eruptions. From Ermakov et al. (2006).

10. Total ionization during GLE in October 1989, July 2000, and April 2001. According to Quack et al. (2001).

11. 3. Cosmic Ray Influence on the Chemical Processes in the Atmosphere and Formation of Ozone Layer NO production by CR (Crutzen et al., 1975).

12. Percentage decrease of the O3 partial pressure versus air pressure derived from the average of the 7 days before 4 August 1972 and 7 day periods centered on 8 and 19 days after the GLE (solid lines). According to Heath et al. (1977).

14. External Atmospheric Showers (EAS) generated by high energy CR particles and thunderstorm discharges (Ermakov and Stozhkov, 2002, 2003)

15. Part 2. Global natural disaster from great magnetic storms connected with big CR Forbush-decreases and their assessment by using world-wide network of CR stations Great geomagnetic storms affect adversely global technology systems, high frequency radio communications are disrupted, electric power distribution grids are blacked out when induced currents causes safety devices to trip, and atmospheric warming causes increased drag on satellites and anomalies in their operation, increasing of frequency of infarct myocardial, brain strokes, car and train accidents; examples of electric power and long oil tubes catastrophes in the past in Canada and other countries. We show that by using on-line one hour CR data from world-wide network of stations is possible to made exact assessment of this natural hazard for 15-20 hours before of the storm sudden commencement

16. WHY MAGNETIC STORMS ARE DANGEROUS ?

19. 3. WHAT PRECURSORY EFFECTS CAN BE USED FOR FORECASTING ? It is well known that big geomagnetic storms have an adverse influence on technological devices and radio wave propagation. Major geomagnetic storms, associated with Forbush decreases (FDs) in cosmic ray (CR) intensity, have also been found to increase the incidence of some diseases (in particular, the frequency of myocardial infarction increases by 13 ± 1.4%). We discuss here three phenomena that can be used for forecasting FDs: 1) CR intensity increase, of non solar CR origin, occurring before sudden commencement of a major geomagnetic storm connected with FD (preincrease effect), 2) CR intensity decrease before FD (predecrease effect), 3) change in CR fluctuations before FD. First we investigate several such events by the global survey method for the years 1989-1991. We analyse the behaviour of the isotropic CR intensity and of the 3-dimensional vector of CR anisotropy before FDs, as well as results on CR scintillation of 1-hour and 5-minute data.

21. Part 3. Global natural disaster from great intense radiation hazards for astronauts, crew and passengers on regular airline flights, for people on the ground due to great solar flare CR events Statistical distribution, Examples from the past; We show that this advertisement, with high occurrence probability, can be given 30-60 minutes before the arrival of the more dangerous particle flux This method is based on the well known fact that the main part of radiation hazard in space and in atmosphere is caused by particles with small energy (few hundreds MeV) that reach the Earth 1-2 hours after their acceleration on the Sun On the contrary the relatively small flux of high-energy (  2 GeV) particles, which can be detected by super neutron monitors and practically are not involved in the radiation hazard, reach the Earth much more quickly.

22. Part 3. Global natural disaster from great intense radiation hazards due to great solar flare CR events We show that 20-30 minutes of CR observation by neutron monitors on the ground and CR on satellites of the first-coming solar high-energy particles give enough information for automatically determining total flux and energy spectrum on the Sun (source function) as well as transport parameters in the Heliosphere This make it possible to predict the time-space distribution for about 48 hours of radiation hazard in interplanetary space and in the Earth’s magnetosphere (for astronauts and space-probe technology) and in the Earth’s atmosphere (for crew, passengers and technology in aircrafts, for people and technology on the ground) as a function of geomagnetic cut-off rigidity and altitude.

23. Proton events and anomalies Mean satellite anomaly frequencies in 0- and 1-days of proton enhancements in dependence on the maximal > 10 MeV flux

24. Proton events and anomalies Probability of any anomaly ( high altitude – high inclination group) in dependence on the maximal proton > 10 and >60 MeV flux

25. The dependencies of observed frequency P (events/year) as a function from the value of logarithm of fluency lg(F) for solar protons with energy >10 MeV

26. The dependencies of observed frequency P (events/year) as a function from the value of logarithm of fluency lg(F) for solar protons with energy >30 MeV

28. FORECAST STEPS 1. AUTOMATICALLY DETERMINATION OF THE FEP EVENT START BY NEUTRON MONITOR DATA 2. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING FUNCTIONS 3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION 4. FORECASTING OF EXPECTED FEP FLUXES AND COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONS 5. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

29. 1. AUTOMATICALLY DETERMINATION OF THE FEP EVENT START BY NEUTRON MONITOR DATA THE PROBABILITY OF FALSE ALARMS THE PROBABILITY OF MISSED TRIGGERS

30. EXAMPLE OF INTERNET PRESENTATION OF REAL TIME DATA FROM ESO (ISRAEL)

31. 2. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING FUNCTIONS

33. 3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION (1-st CASE: K(R) DOES NOT DEPEND FROM DISTANCE TO SUN)

36. 3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION (2-nd CASE: K(R, r) DEPENDS FROM DISTANCE TO THE SUN)

38. 4. FORECASTING OF EXPECTED FEP FLUXES AND COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONS (2-nd CASE: K(R, r) DEPENDS FROM DISTANCE TO THE SUN)

39. 5. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

44. CONCLUSION BY ONE-MINUTE NEUTRON MONITOR DATA AND ONE-MINUTE AVAILABLE FROM INTERNET COSMIC RAY SATELLITE DATA FOR 20-30 MIN DATA IT IS POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THE TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION, AND DIFFUSION COEFFICIENT IN DEPENDENCE FROM ENERGY AND DISTANCE FROM THE SUN. THEN IT IS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST OF FEP FLUXES AND FLUENCY IN HIGH AND LOW ENERGY RANGES UP TO ABOUT TWO DAYS. SEPTEMBER 1989 EVENT IS USED AS A TEST CASE.

45. The inverse problem for SEP propagation and generation in the frame of anisotropic diffusion and in kinetic approach It is well known that energy spectrum of solar energetic particles (SEP), observed by ground based neutron monitors and muon telescopes (in high energy region; the transfer to the space from the ground observations is made by the method of coupling functions, see in Chapter 3 of Dorman, 2004), and by detectors on satellites and space-probes (in small energy region) changed with time very much (usually from very hard at the beginning of event to very soft at the end of event). The observed spectrum of SEP and its change with time are determined by three main parameters: energy spectrum in source, time of ejection, and propagation mode. In the past we considered the first step for forecasting of radiation hazard: the simple isotropic mode of SEP propagation in the interplanetary space (see Chapter 2 in Dorman, 2006). It was shown that on the basis of observation data at several moments of time could be solved the inverse problem and determined energy spectrum in source, time of ejection, and diffusion coefficient in dependence of energy and distance from the Sun. Here we consider the inverse problem for the complicated case: mode of anisotropic diffusion and kinetic approach. We show that in this case also the inverse problem can be solved, but it needs NM data at least at several locations on the Earth. We show that in this case the solution of inverse problem starts to work well sufficiently earlier than solution for isotropic diffusion, but after 20-25 minutes both solutions give about the same results. It is important that obtained results and reality of used model can be controlled by independent data on SEP energy spectrum in other moments of time (does not used at solving of inverse problem). On the basis of obtained results can be estimate the total release energy in the SEP event and radiation environment in the inner Heliosphere, in the magnetosphere, and atmosphere of the Earth during SEP event.

46. THE STEPS OF FORECASTING 1-3 For realization of the first step of forecasting we need one minute real-time data from about all NM of the world network. On the each NM must work automatically the program for the search of the start SEP events as it was described in Sections 1-3. This search will help to determine which NM from about 50 of total number operated in the world network show the narrow peak of the anisotropic stream of the first arrived solar CR (NM of the 1-st type) and which show a diffusive tail with a wide maximum at a later time (NM of the 2-nd type). In the second step we determine rigidity spectrum of arrived solar CR by using separately NM of the 1-st type and 2-nd type by using method of coupling functions as it was described above in Section 4 (in more detail see Chapter 3 in Dorman, 2004). In the third step we need to determine for different NM the mean Rc, λ and  λ characterized for this event.

47. THE STEPS OF FORECASTING 4-6 By using these parameters and experimental data on NM time profiles in the beginning time we cane determine parameters of solar CR non-scattering and diffusive propagation, described in Section 12 (the fourth step). On the basis of determined parameters of solar CR non-scattering and diffusive propagation we then determine expected CR fluxes and pitch-angle distribution for total event in interplanetary space in dependence of time after ejection (the fifth step). In the sixth step by using again method of coupling functions we can determine expected radiation doze which will be obtain during this event inside space probes in interplanetary space, satellites in the magnetosphere, aircrafts at different altitudes and cutoff rigidities, for people and technologies on the ground.

48. Part 4. The great hazard for the Earth’s civilization from the interaction of a dust-molecular cloud with the Solar system From the past we know that the dust from clouds between the Sun and the Earth leads to decrease of solar irradiation flux with sufficient decreasing of global planetary temperature (on 5-7  in comparison with 0.8  from green effect for the last hundred years). The plasma in a moving molecular dust cloud contains a frozen-in magnetic field; this field could modify the stationary galactic cosmic rays (CR) distribution function outside the Heliosphere. The change in the CR distribution function can be significant, and it should be possible to identify these changes when the distance between the cloud and the Sun becomes comparable with the dimension of the cloud. The continuous observations of a time variation of the CR distribution function for many years should provide the possibility of determining the direction and the speed of the cloud relative to the Sun, as well as its geometry. Therefore by CR measurements we may predict its evolution in space and determine whether the dust-molecular cloud will catch the Sun or not. In the case of high probability of capture, we could predict the time of the capture and how long the solar system will be inside the cloud.

49. Part 5. Great radiation hazard for the earth’s civilization from CR particles generated in a nearby Supernova Explosion (SE) From the energetic balance of CR in the Galaxy it was estimated that the full power for CR production is W CR ~ 3  10 40 erg/s. Now it is common accepted that the Supernova explosions are the main source of galactic CR. At each explosion the average energy transferred to CR is E SE ~ 10 50 erg. From this we can determine the expected frequency of SE in our Galaxy and in vicinity of the Sun. We estimate the probability of Supernova explosions inside different distances from the Sun and expected radiation hazard, and its variation with time. We show that in some cases the level of radiation may increases about 1000 times in comparison with present level, and it will be very dangerous for the Earth's civilization and biosphere.

50. Part 5. Great radiation hazard for the earth’s civilization from CR particles generated in a nearby Supernova Explosion (SE) We show that by high energy CR measurements by ground and underground muon telescopes and low-latitude neutron monitors on the Earth will be obtain information on the source function and diffusion coefficient in the interstellar space for many years before when real radiation hazard will be formatted on the Earth. We show how on the basis of this information we can made exact forecasting on developing in time of the radiation hazard in space and in the atmosphere on different altitudes and cutoff rigidities (different geomagnetic latitudes) by using method of coupling functions On the basis of this information experts must to decide how to prevent the Earth's civilization (in some cases it will be necessary for people to live underground or in special protected buildings for several hundred years, and go out only for very short time). It is important that on the basis of obtained forecast the Earth's civilization will have time at least several tens years to prepare the life underground and in special protected buildings.

55. References Dorman L.I., 1963. Geophysical and Astrophysical Aspects of Cosmic Rays. North-Holland Publ. Co., Amsterdam (In series "Progress in Physics of Cosmic Ray and Elementary Particles", ed. by J.G. Wilson and S.A. Wouthuysen, Vol. 7), pp 320. Dorman L.I., 1974. Cosmic Rays: Variations and Space Exploration. North-Holland Publ.Co., Amsterdam, pp 675. Dorman L.I., 1975. Experimental and Theoretical Principles of Cosmic Ray Astrophysics. FIZMATGIZ, Moscow, pp 464. Dorman L.I, N. Iucci, and G. Villoresi, 1993. "The use of cosmic rays for continues monitoring and prediction of some dangerous phenomena for the Earth's civilization”, Astrophysics and Space Science, 208, 55-68.

56. References Munakata K., J.W. Bieber, S.-I. Yasue, C. Kato, M. Koyama, S. Akahane, K. Fujimoto, Z. Fujii, J.E. Humble, and M.L. Duldig, 2000 “Precursors of geomagnetic storms observed by the muon detector network”, J. Geophys. Res., 105, No. A12, 27457-27468. Lev I. Dorman, 2002. “Solar Energetic Particle Events and Geomagnetic Storms Influence on People’s Health and Technology: Principles of Monitoring and Forecasting of Space Dangerous Phenomena by Using On-Line Cosmic Ray Data”, in Proc. 22nd ISTC Japan Workshop on Space Weather Forecast (ed. Y. Muraki), Nagoya University, Vol. 2, pp. 133-151. Lev I. Dorman, 2004. Cosmic Rays in the Earth's Atmosphere and Underground, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston/London. Lev I. Dorman, 2006. Cosmic Ray Interactions, Propagation, and Acceleration in Space Plasmas, Springer, Netherlands.