1. This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on
Sept. 21st 2012 at the 20th Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference in Darwin, Australia.
The paper that corresponds to this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016). The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:

2. Photo: Deirdre McElligott
The relative importance of reproduction & survival for population viability: a case study of two dolphin populations OLIVER MANLIK, Jane McDonald, Janet Mann, Holly Smith, Lars Bejder, Michael Krützen, Richard Connor, Michael Heithaus & William Sherwin
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
Photo: Deirdre McElligott

3. Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
Vital Rates
Methods:
1.) Determine & compare vital rates
Results:
Reproduction fluctuates
Reproduction: Shark Bay > Bunbury
Adult survival: Bunbury > Shark Bay
2 Populations of
bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.)
Shark Bay:
N0 = 2888 (Preen et al. 1997)
4 three-year time periods
Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
Bunbury:
N0 = 267
1 three-year time period

4. Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
Standard Model
Methods:
2.) Modeling with VORTEX
b) Substitution
Results (Vital Rate Comparison):
Reproduction: Shark Bay > Bunbury
Adult survival: Bunbury > Shark Bay
Methods:
1.) Determine & compare vital rates
2.) Modeling with VORTEX
a) Standard Model
Reproduction
more important?
Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
This corresponds to Figure 1 in Manlik et al. (2016)
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
Probability of Extinction: 0%
Probability of Extinction: 96%

5. Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
Substitution
Methods:
2.) Modeling with VORTEX
b) Substitution
Bunbury with Shark Bay Input
with…
Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
This corresponds to Figure 1b in Manlik et al. (2016)
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:

6. Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
Substitution
Methods:
2.) Modeling with VORTEX
b) Substitution
Bunbury with Shark Bay Input
with…
Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
This corresponds to Figure 1b in Manlik et al. (2016)
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
Result: Substitution of reproduction largest effect
Conclusion: Difference in viability due to reproduction

7. Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
Sensitivity Analyses
…in conflict with principle:
In slow-growing animal populations
adult survival has a large effect,
and reproduction has a small effect on growth rate.
49 species of birds (Saether & Bakke, 2000)
169 populations—various taxa (Crone, 2001)
142 populations of mammal populations (Oli & Dobson, 2003)
5 species of cetaceans (Young & Keith, 2011)
“Any observed changes in growth rates of slow-growing
species are likely due to changes in survival.”
(Lebreton & Clobert, 1991)
Survival “better fitness surrogate” than reproduction (Crone, 2003)
“Management…should focus on the protection of adults”
(Wielgus et al., 2008)
Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
Further investigation…

8. Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
Sensitivity Analyses
Methods:
2.) Modeling with VORTEX
c) Sensitivity Analyses
∆ Reproduction
∆ Growth rate
∆ Survival
1.) Reproduction
2.) Calf Survival
3.) Juvenile Survival
4.) Adult Survival
5.) Inbreeding
Standard models as baseline:
Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
∆ Growth rate

9. Sensitivity Analyses High: + 4% Medium: Standard value Low: - 4%
Conventional analysis: Proportional
High: %
Medium: Standard value
Low: %
Result:
Survival has large effect on growth rate
Reproduction has little effect on growth rate, if…
Consistent with other studies
Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
Alternative analysis: Natural Variation
High: SD
Medium: Standard value
Low: SD
Result:
Reproduction has large effect on growth rate
Survival has little effect on growth rate, if…
All possible combinations: 3 levels, 5 variables
35 = 243
X In contrast to conventional analysis

10. Conclusion Importance of Reproduction vs Survival: Analysis
Vital Rate Comparison
Substitution
Proportional
Natural Variation
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
1.) Importance of reproduction
—even in slow-growing pop.;
survival NOT “better fitness surrogate” (ref. Crone, 2001)
2.) Observed natural variation
may be better indicator for population viability 10

11. Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
Acknowledgments
Thanks!
Questions?
Society for Conservation Biology Oceania 2012
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
Jane McDonald, Janet Mann,
Holly Smith, Lars Bejder,
Michael Krützen, Richard Connor
Michael Heithaus, William Sherwin
Photo:
Deirdre McElligott 11

12. This corresponds to Figure 1 in Manlik et al. (2016)
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:

13. Vital Rates: Shark Bay & Bunbury
Introduction  Methods  Results  Conclusion 
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:

14. Methods: 1.) Determine & compare demographic parameters
2.) Modeling with VORTEX 99.9b
Standard Models
Introduction  Methods  Results  Conclusion 
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
Substitution of vital rates and N0
Sensitivity Analyses:
Proportional Variance Analysis: +/- 4%
Temporal Variance Analysis: /- 1 SDEV

15. Demographic Parameters
Population Size & Carrying Capacity
Age-class Distribution: Calves, Juveniles, Calves
Sex Ratios
Minimum and maximum age-class to reproduce
Introduction  Methods  Results  Conclusion 
Males in breeding pool (%)
This was an oral presentation, delivered by Oliver Manlik on Sept. 21st, 2012 at the Society for Conservation Biology Oceania Conference.
The paper that corresponds to (most of) this oral presentation was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and is freely available for download at:
Please cite:
Manlik O, McDonald J.A., Mann J, Raudino H.C., Bejder L., Krützen M., Connor R.C., Heithaus M.R., Lacy R.C. and Sherwin W.B. (2016).
The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations. Ecology and Evolution, /ece3.2130
For questions or comments feel free to contact Oliver at:
Shark Bay: Dispersal rate between subpopulations
Vital Rates: Reproductive & Survival Rates + SDEV
Shark Bay: 4
3-year time periods
( ; ; ; )
Bunbury: 1
3-year time period
( )