1. Greenhouse Management
Chapter 02
Climate Change Impacts to Global
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2. Chapter Objectives What is climate change? Global climate change
Global climate change impacts
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3. What Is Climate Change? Climate Change
Climate change is a change in the "average weather" that a given region experiences. Average weather includes all the features we associate with the weather such as temperature, wind patterns and precipitation.
The earth's climate is dynamic, always changing. In the past few million years, there have been spells of Ice Age and warm periods. The causes of these changes in climate have been natural. What the world is more worried about now is the impact of human activities on climate change.
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4. What Is Climate Change? (Cont’d)
Human Cause
Human activities are releasing greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is produced when fossil fuels are use to generate energy or when forests are cut down and burned.
Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are emitted in many ways for example agricultural activities, change in land use, and other sources.
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5. Global Climate Change Potential Impacts of Climate Change
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6. Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Temperature Change
Analysis of the observed climate records has revealed increases in global mean surface air temperatures, over land and sea combined, of 0.4 to 0.8°C since the late 19th century.
Most of this increase has occurred in two periods, from 1910 to 1945 and since 1976.
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7. Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Temperature Change
A closer look reveals that the majority of this temperature increase occurred during the last few decades, when the global average temperature has risen by about 0.2 C per decade.
During the last decade or so, global annual mean surface temperatures have been among the warmest on the instrumental record.
The global mean temperature for 1998 made it the warmest year ever recorded and the 1990s were the warmest decade.
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8. Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Precipitation Changes
Enhancement of the greenhouse effect may lead to changes in the hydrological cycle, such as increased evaporation, drought and precipitation, and it is likely that such changes would have a higher regional variation than temperature effects.
However, precipitation over land has decreased substantially in the last two decades.
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9. Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Precipitation Changes
Direct observations and model analyses indicate that rainfall has also increased over large parts of the tropical oceans.
In North America the annual precipitation has increased (Karl et al. 1993b; Groisman and Easterling 1994).
In the northern region of Canada and Alaska a trend of increasing precipitation has been detected during the last 40 years (Groisman and Easterling 1994).
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10. Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Precipitation Changes
In general, an increase in precipitation can be found in Northern Europe and a decrease in Southern Europe.
The amounts of precipitation in the Sahel, West Africa, in the period from 1960 to 1993 were lower than in the period before 1960 (Houghton et al. 1996).
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11. Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Sea level rise
Over the last 100 years, sea level has risen between 10 and 25 centimeters worldwide.
It is most likely that the recent increase in the rate of sea level rise is related to the observed increase of the Earth's global temperature and the ocean sea surface temperature.
The observed melting and retreating of glaciers and ice sheets indicates an additional sea level rise between 2 and 5 centimeters.
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12. Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Sea level rise
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13. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Introduction
The poor do not have adequate capacity and resources to deal with and to adapt to climate change.
For example, rising sea levels will threaten millions of people living in island states and in low-lying deltas in countries like Bangladesh, Egypt and China. Most of the endangered areas are in South and South East Asia, where some 30 of the world’s largest cities are located.
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14. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Introduction
Global warming will affect water supplies and reduce food production in the tropics and subtropics, where most developing countries are, putting millions of people at risk of hunger in the future.
It will also damage non-tropical forests, lead to loss of species, and spread tropical diseases towards temperate regions.
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15. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Introduction
Climate change consists of three key effects: changes in regional rainfall patterns, sea level rise, and increased average temperature. These in turn will have impacts on:
Water resource
Agricultural Production
Human Health
Coastal Areas
Forest and Ecosystems
Climate Disasters and Extreme Climate Events
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16. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Water Resource
Climate change will lead to changes in the hydrological cycle.
Precipitation will increase in some areas and decline in others.
This will change flood and drought frequency and intensity.
Changes in seasonal patterns may affect the regional distribution of both ground and surface water supplies.
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17. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Water Resource
Changes in water temperatures could affect the survival, diversity and productivity of fresh water ecosystems.
Rising sea levels will affect coastal freshwater supplies due to seawater intrusion.
Reduced water supplies would put additional pressure on people, agriculture, and the environment.
The most vulnerable regions are arid and semi-arid areas, low-lying coasts, deltas and small islands.
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18. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Water Resource
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19. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Agricultural Production
Higher temperature and changes in rainfall patterns will have impacts on crop yields and productivity.
Yields will probably decrease due to excessive irrigation demand, increased rainfall, which will cause soil erosion and soil leaching, and crop damages caused by increasing extreme climate events.
Sea level rise will also cause losses in cropland in low-lying coastal areas.
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20. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Agricultural Production
The most vulnerable groups are the landless, poor, and isolated people of developing countries.
These countries normally have weak infrastructure, limited access to technology and information, and some also experience armed conflict.
These factors will make it more difficult for people to cope with the agricultural consequences of climate change.
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21. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Agricultural Production
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22. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Human Health
The direct impacts of climate change on health include an increase in heat stress and in cardiovascular, respiratory, allergic and air borne diseases.
Increase in frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events could result in death, injuries, psychological disorders, and damage to public health infrastructures.
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23. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Human Health
Tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are also likely to increase as the habitats for mosquitoes and other vectors (insects) expand when the temperature rises.
Food- and water-related diseases will also increase due to warmer temperatures, reduced water supplies and proliferating microorganisms.
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24. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Human Health
The poor will be more vulnerable to the health impacts than the rich.
However, richer countries will also be increasingly vulnerable as their populations age.
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25. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Coastal Areas
Observations show that the global average sea level has risen by 10 to 25 cm over the last century, which is mainly related to an increase of oC in the global average air temperature since 1860.
If the current trend in global warming continues, sea level is predicted to rise another 15 to 95 cm by the year 2100.
This will occur due to the thermal expansion of ocean water and an influx of freshwater from melting glaciers and ice.
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26. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Coastal Areas
The low-lying coastal zones and small islands are extremely vulnerable to sea level rise.
It is projected that a 1 m sea-level rise would cause estimated land losses of 6% in the Netherlands, 17.5% in Bangladesh and over 50% for some small island states.
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27. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Forest and Ecosystems
Forests play an important role in the climate system.
They are a major reservoir of carbon.
They also directly affect local, regional, and continental climate by influencing ground temperature, evapotranspiration, heat reflectivity, cloud formation, and precipitation.
At the same time, habitats will be degraded and fragmented by the combination of climate change, deforestation, and other environmental pressures.
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28. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Forest and Ecosystems
The extinction of some plant and animal species that are unable to cope with climate change impacts would likely occur.
An increase of just 1oC in the global average temperature would affect the functioning and composition of forests.
Entire forest types may disappear, while new combinations of species, and hence new ecosystems, may be established.
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29. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
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30. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
The most significant impacts of climate on society are associated with its extremes, such as droughts, floods, heat-waves, blizzards, cyclone, volcanic eruption and earthquake.
In regions where total precipitation has increased, the frequency of heavy and extreme precipitation events has also increased.
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31. Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Drought
Drought is a particular concern in Africa.
The areas suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of Semi-arid and arid areas are expected to decrease.
By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to suffer greater water stress due to climate change in the region.
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32. Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Drought
Increased drought hazard and decreasing availability of food and water could lead to scenarios of greatly increased risk that could stretch existing humanitarian response systems.
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33. Global Climate Change (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Flood
Confirmed that heavy precipitation events are very likely to become more frequent.
Heavily populated mega-deltas in South, East, and Southeast Asia will be at greatest risk.
In Africa, rising sea levels will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations.
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34. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Cyclone
A cyclone, hurricane or typhoon is a natural disaster which also has its frequency and power boosted by climate change.
These cyclones are extremely violent especially through high speed winds that tip everything in its path, large quantities of rain and something large wave surges.
Numerous areas of the planet are hit by such cyclones, but the most violent occur in the US, South-East Asia, and Australia.
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35. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Cyclone
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36. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Blizzard
High winds, and large quantities of snow make blizzards of the most unbearable phenomena.
And to exemplify how cunning they can do, one of most recent and deadly blizzards occurred in the most unlikely areas: Afghanistan in 2008, where up to 1,000 people died, many got frostbite and large numbers of livestock didn’t survive the extreme conditions.
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37. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Blizzard
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38. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Heat waves
This is an example of a natural disaster which is getting more frequent due to pollution and climate change.
Heat waves are extremely dangerous to human lives especially because their effects are dramatic and one can only do so much to hinder these negative conditions.
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39. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Heat waves
Extremely high temperatures and high humidity levels for prolonged periods of time lead to death by hyperthermia, crops failing and wide spread use of air conditioning which can cause power cut. The most relative example is the 2003 European heat wave which caused the death of 70, 000 people.
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40. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Heat waves
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41. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Wildfires
Nature at its most incontrollable is where wildfires come in.
Caused by extreme drought, lightning, and sometimes even human negligence, they can burn through entire forests, pastures or even cities, if they are not extinguished or controlled in time.
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42. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Wildfires
The obvious danger there is being burned, but chocking on account of large quantities of smoke or being left with nothing after pass are also hazard.
Such events occurred in Australia in 2009 when more than 400 wildfires spread to produce the highest count of human loses caused by bushfires.
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43. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Wildfires
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44. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Volcanic Eruptions
Volcanic eruptions are one of the most terrifying natural disasters that can occur on the earth.
Though such a catastrophic eruption can happen because some volcanoes are inactive for thousands of years, but when it does erupt, huge explosions, large gas clouds and overflowing lava are just the tip of the danger they pose.
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45. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Volcanic Eruptions
Edifying examples are the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883, classified as the loudest sound on earth, which spread ash clouds all around the earth and had the power of numerous atomic bombs, leading to death of up 40, 000 people or even much more.
Another classic example is that of Pompeii, the ancient city which was burned and buried under ash by the eruption of Vesuvius towering over it.
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46. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Volcanic Eruptions
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47. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Earthquake
This type of natural disaster is probably the most wide spread around the world and the most terrifying considering its massive effects.
Seismic wave shake the earth’s surface when two land plates collided or shift.
The earthquake in itself is not deathly, but the aftermath effects are, to high degree.
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48. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Changes in Extreme Events
Earthquake
Depending on its magnitude, it can cause other catastrophes such as collapsing building, landslide, volcanic eruption, tsunamis, fires and explosions.
The damages are unimaginable and the degree of lives lost one of the highest. Massive earthquakes have cost the lives of million over the course of history
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49. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Earthquake
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50. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Some Facts about Climate Change
The world is heating up – fast. Temperatures are rising more quickly than they have done for 10,000 years;
The 1990s were the warmest decade on record, and 1998 was the hottest year;
The earth’s average surface temperature has warmed between 0.3 and 0.6 degrees Celsius in the last 100 years. It may rise by two degrees in the next 100 years, if we go on producing greenhouse gases at the present rate;
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51. Global Climate Change Impacts (Cont’d)
Some Facts about Climate Change
Sea levels have risen by between centimeters in the last 100 years, as polar ice caps have melted. They are projected to rise another 50 centimeters by 2100;
There have been unpredictable and extreme weather patterns – freak weather disasters such as hurricanes, storms, and floods.
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