1. Seasonal Weather Prediction Activity in Sri Lanka
Shiromani Jayawardena
Department of Meteorology
Sri Lanka

2. The Climate of Sri Lanka is essentially monsoonal, dominated by the Southwest and Northeast monsoons, on which the life and economy of the island is critically dependant.
Climate Seasons
South West Monsoon Season : May Sept
Second Inter Monsoon Season : Oct Nov
North East Monsoon season : Dec-Feb
First Inter Monsoon Season : March-April

3. Climate of Sri Lanka Intermediate Zone Dry Zone Wet Zone
Dry Zone (Annual Rainfall<1750mm)
Sri Lanka
Annual rainfall varies between
950 mm to 5500 millimeters
with an average of
1861 mm
Intermediate Zone (Annual Rainfall Between 1750 and 2500mm)
Wet Zone (Annual Rainfall > 2500mm)
Intermediate Zone
Dry Zone
Wet Zone

4. Hydro Catchment Area
Rainfall

6. Laxpana Complex (Hydro) Mahaweli Complex (Hydro)
Electricity Generated on : 2012/09/16
Energy crisis
Energy
GWh %
CEB Thermal (Coal)
4.95
19.3
CEB Thermal ( Oil)
6.027
23.5
IPP Thermal ( Oil)
10.512
40.9
Laxpana Complex (Hydro)
1.668
6.5
Mahaweli Complex (Hydro)
1.638
6.4
Samanelaweva (Hydro)
0.224
0.9
Kukule Ganga (Hydro)
0.654
2.5
CEB (Small hydro)

7. SUMMARY of MODEL FORECAST for SRI LANKA
MR Model
IMD-IITM CFS
NCEP CFS-1
NCEP CFS-2
IRI
MME
MME2
(CGCM)
JMA
EUROSIP
ECMRWF
CPT
  WMO LC MME
FINAL
72.8 BN CP
  BN
BN/N/AN

8. Consensus outlook for the 2012 southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia
South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)

9. Monsoon Forum May 2012 UNESCAP-supported WMO-RIMES Regional Programme
Ceylon Electricity Board
Coast Conservation Dept
National Building Research Organization
Water Supply and Drainage Board
Central Environmental Authority
Department of Agriculture
Ministry of Education
Irrigation Department
Disaster Management Centre
Mahaweli Authority
Fisheries Department
Sri Lanka Red Cross
University of Colombo
University of Kelaniya
University of Jayawardnapura
Open University
Media (Electronic and Printed)

10. Seasonal Weather Prediction In Sri Lanka
2007 : CPT Climate Predictability Tool
2010 : Develop seasonal weather prediction using Interactive Tool for Analysis of Climate System (ITACS) developed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
2012 : WMO GPC LRF