1. Recycling Market Update Rob Taylor, November 1, 2017

2. Recycling Market Update
Until recently recyclable commodity trends have been favorable for public recycling programs
Series of Chinese initiatives have introduced uncertainty and are already impacting recycling markets, particularly paper (“National Sword”)
Public programs and MRFs likely to experience market-related stress
Hindsight allows market to understand what was happening with OCC

3. What is National Sword?
A series of Chinese government actions impacting the import of recyclable materials into China
Includes ban on importation of post-consumer plastics and unsorted paper beginning Jan. 2018
Intense scrutiny on bale quality for imported materials (0.3% contamination limits)
What’s behind National Sword initiative?
Concern about Chinese environment, seeking to end import of trash
Coupled with growth of Chinese middle class, China pivot towards looking towards their own waste stream for recyclables

4. Fiber / Paper Prices (per ton) Last 5 Years

5. Fiber / Paper Prices (per ton) Last 5 Years

6. Fiber / Paper Prices (per ton) Last 5 Years

7. Aluminum, PET and HDPE Prices (per .lb) Last 5 Years

8. Gross Value of a Commingled Ton Over Time

9. Gross Value of a Commingled Ton Over Time
National Sword
Impact
On Paper Values

10. Gross Value of a Commingled Ton Over Time

11. Gross Value of a Commingled Ton Over Time?

12. Markets On the Near Horizon
“National Sword” will continue to impact pricing for recyclable commodities, especially those materials most dependent on export markets, e.g.
3-7 plastics
Rigid plastics
Low grade plastic film
Mixed paper
Recycling industry waiting to see what will happen over next 6 months
Important considerations:
Chinese industry still needs feedstock
How will North American demand respond?

13. Public Program Tips for Uncertain Times
Stay calm, don’t over react
No hasty decisions about accepted materials
Focus on things you can control (more in a minute)
Avoid public program dependency on revenue from materials sales
If possible, use earnings during good times to create a reserve account / rainy day fund

14. More Tips
Establish and maintain communication and positive relationship with your processor / MRF
Support domestic demand for recyclables through post- consumer content requirements for public purchasing
Think long-term (market blips aren’t new)
Focus on program efficiency to control operating costs
Understand that periods of low value can exacerbate challenges with glass

15. What’s a Program to Do?
Focus on materials quality and reducing contamination
Top messages for the public:
No plastic bags, no bagged recyclables!!
No trash, no tanglers!!

16. Tools from The Recycling Partnership

17. Rob Taylor NC DEACS rob.taylor@ncdenr.gov 919-707-8139
Thank You!
Rob Taylor
NC DEACS