1. Modelling butterfly responses to field margin design
Aims
To assess the potential value of Countryside Stewardship schemes for butterfly conservation using process-based models.
Figure 1. A flower rich field margin
Step 1: Energetics model of species life-history
Figure 2. Conceptual model
Step 2: Embed within a spatially-explicit IBM
Collect field data on ‘step’ movements, turning angles, responses to habitat boundaries to derive movement rules for simulations.
Figure 3. Depiction of an individual’s movement among patches .
Objectives
1) Develop an energy budget individual-based model (IBM) to predict the phenology, ecology and life-history of 6 common spp.
2) Parametrise dispersal for selected species with field collected data on individual movement in relation to habitat boundaries.
3) Calibrate and validate models using UKBMS data and Approximate Bayesian Computation inference methods.
4) Apply the model to explore the consequences of field margin design modifications in respect to resources and structure.
Step 3: Model validation
Figure 3. Timing of flight peaks for Pieris brassicae vary predictably with spring/summer temperatures. Inset: Phenology curve produced from LOLA-BMS project¹ data
Temperature input into the model is daily mean temperature from Hadley central England temperature series² There is a significant correlation between the observed and the model output (p<0.01), though currently the model consistently over predicts development time.
Key challenges
1) Explain the discrepancy in the relationship between temperature and phenology through the effects of sunshine
2) Incorporate the effects of food quality by including the relationship of precipitation and drought stress in host plants
3) Use an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach to explore the wider applicability of the models
4 good pictures: 1, a field margin at Syngenta, 2 energy budget flow, 3 plot, 4 rsquared.
References
Schmucki, R., Pe'Er, G., Roy, D.B., Stefanescu, C., Van Swaay, C.A., Oliver, T.H., Kuussaari, M., Van Strien, A.J., Ries, L., Settele, J. and Musche, M., A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes. Journal of Applied Ecology, 53(2), pp
Parker, D.E., Legg, T.P. and Folland, C.K., A new daily central England temperature series, 1772–1991. International Journal of Climatology, 12(4), pp
Contact information
School of biological sciences, University of Reading, Whiteknights, RG6 6AH |