1. PLANNING CONFERENCE ON MARYLAND’S ENERGY FUTURE July 26 – 27, 2007
STATE OF MARYLAND
Public Service Commission
PLANNING CONFERENCE ON MARYLAND’S ENERGY FUTURE July 26 – 27, 2007
LOAD FORECASTING PANEL
MARYLAND PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION STAFF
CARLOS CANDELARIO, Ph.D.
TARESA LAWRENCE, Ph.D.

2. PLANNING CONFERENCE ON MARYLAND’S ENERGY FUTURE LOAD FORECASTING PANEL
Conclusions and Recommendations:
The Commission, utilities and other stakeholders must ensure that sufficient resources are in place to meet the forecasted demand
2. Stakeholders should rely on prudently conservative forecasts given the uncertainty inherent in even the best forecast
3. Stakeholders should be guided by peak load and sales forecasts produced by utilities for their own service territories. Those forecasts appear to be the most reliable, conservative, and are consistent with forecasts produced by an independent third party

3. PLANNING CONFERENCE ON MARYLAND’S ENERGY FUTURE LOAD FORECASTING PANEL
Pursuant to PSC Planning Conference Notice, June 8, 2007, participants were asked to address specific issues pertaining to load forecasting techniques and methodology.
Evaluation Criteria
Adherence to Economic Theory
How is the forecasted load estimated?
What are the input assumptions?
How are the impacts from demand response, conservation and energy efficiency programs modeled?
How is weather/climate factored into the forecast?
How are the impacts of federal Base Realignment and Closure process factored into the forecast?
What assumptions are made regarding demand elasticity to rising prices?
Adherence to Econometric Principles
Estimation Technique
Model Specification
Forecast Accuracy
How has the accuracy of the model been measured?
Forecast Comparison
Compare and contrast with other publicly available forecasts.

4. PLANNING CONFERENCE ON MARYLAND’S ENERGY FUTURE LOAD FORECASTING PANEL PEAK LOAD FORECAST MODELS
Company/
Organization
Adherence to
Economic Theory1
Econometric Theory1
Forecast
Accuracy Checks
PJM
No price variable, no market size variable.
No DSM or BRAC effects included in the model.
No autocorrelation correction term included in model
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE):
3.87%
PPRP
Model accounted for BRAC effects but not future DSM programs
Included autocorrelation correction term in model
2006 Percent difference:
-7.3%
BGE
Accounted for BRAC effects, but not DSM effects. BGE reports on DSM impacts in separate schedule
Included autorcorrelation correction term in model
In-sample percent variance:
1.5%
PEPCO_MD
PHI works with PJM to determine peak load
No results reported
DELMARVA_MD
1. Assumption: The model and methodology have met all other evaluation standards indicated in previous slide

5. PLANNING CONFERENCE ON MARYLAND’S ENERGY FUTURE LOAD FORECASTING PANEL
Source: PJM 7/11/07, Table B-1, p. 29

6. PLANNING CONFERENCE ON MARYLAND’S ENERGY FUTURE LOAD FORECASTING PANEL
PJM Peak Load Forecasts (MW)
Change from 2007
BGE_pjm
DPL_pjm
Pepco_pjm
APS_pjm
Total PJM
2007
7,303
4,076
6,972
8,630
26,981
2008
7,425
4,166
7,126
8,762
27,479
498
2009
7,548
4,256
7,238
8,858
27,900
919
2010
7,655
4,344
7,341
8,938
28,278
1,297
2011
7,745
4,432
7,439
9,014
28,630
1,649
2012
7,807
4,490
7,515
9,078
28,890
1,909
2013
7,895
4,577
7,641
9,142
29,255
2,274
2014
7,973
4,658
7,748
9,214
29,593
2,612
2015
8,054
4,742
7,853
9,290
29,939
2,958
2016
8,115
4,844
7,937
9,350
30,246
3,265
2017
8,198
4,919
8,032
9,427
30,576
3,595
2018
8,272
5,004
8,123
9,496
30,895
3,914
2019
8,370
5,096
8,224
9,564
31,254
4,273
2020
8,471
5,199
8,361
9,666
31,697
4,716
2021
8,551
5,303
8,458
9,746
32,058
5,077
2022
8,642
5,414
8,560
9,817
32,433
5,452
Source: PJM 7/11/07, Table B-1, p. 29

7. PLANNING CONFERENCE ON MARYLAND’S ENERGY FUTURE LOAD FORECASTING PANEL
PPRP Forecast (MW)
Change from 2007
Utility Forecasts (MW)
Utility Specific Changes
MD-Low
MD-Base
MD-High
MD_Utilities
BGE
Pepco
DPL
APS
2008
(190)
(44)
108
238 97 80 24 37
2009
(170)
206
607
470
208
139 47 76
2010
(186)
484
1,216
695
330
193 69
103
2011
(251)
676
1,709
922
450
244 92
136
2012
(295)
867
2,180
1114
554
284
107
169
Source: PPRP 7/11/07, p. A-5
Utility Filings: BGE, Pino p. 18; Pepco, 7/18/07; DPL, 7/18/07; APS 7/11/07

8. PLANNING CONFERENCE ON MARYLAND’S ENERGY FUTURE LOAD FORECASTING PANEL
BGE_bge
Pepco-MD
DC Sub_H_pprp l
E Shore_H_pprp
So. MD_H_pprp
APS MD_aps
Balt Region_H_pprp
DPL-MD_dpl
W. MD_H_pprp
Source: Utility Filings: BGE, (Residential Sales)
PPRP, 5/15/07, p. A-7 (High Case)