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Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
Antonio Gasparrini, PhD, Yuming Guo, PhD, Francesco Sera, MSc, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, PhD, Veronika Huber, PhD, Prof Shilu Tong, PhD, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, PhD, Prof Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, PhD, Eric Lavigne, PhD, Patricia Matus Correa, MSc, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, MSc, Haidong Kan, PhD, Samuel Osorio, MSc, Jan Kyselý, PhD, Aleš Urban, PhD, Prof Jouni J K Jaakkola, PhD, Niilo R I Ryti, PhD, Mathilde Pascal, PhD, Prof Patrick G Goodman, PhD, Ariana Zeka, PhD, Paola Michelozzi, MSc, Matteo Scortichini, MSc, Prof Masahiro Hashizume, PhD, Prof Yasushi Honda, PhD, Prof Magali Hurtado-Diaz, PhD, Julio Cesar Cruz, MSc, Xerxes Seposo, PhD, Prof Ho Kim, PhD, Aurelio Tobias, PhD, Carmen Iñiguez, PhD, Prof Bertil Forsberg, PhD, Daniel Oudin Åström, PhD, Martina S Ragettli, PhD, Prof Yue Leon Guo, PhD, Chang-fu Wu, PhD, Antonella Zanobetti, PhD, Prof Joel Schwartz, PhD, Prof Michelle L Bell, PhD, Tran Ngoc Dang, PhD, Prof Dung Do Van, PhD, Clare Heaviside, PhD, Sotiris Vardoulakis, PhD, Shakoor Hajat, PhD, Prof Andy Haines, FMedSci, Prof Ben Armstrong, PhD The Lancet Planetary Health Volume 1, Issue 9, Pages e360-e367 (December 2017) DOI: /S (17) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions
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Figure 1 Map of the 451 locations included in the analysis
The locations represent metropolitan areas, provinces, or larger areas from 23 countries within nine regions. The colours represent different ranges of average daily mean temperature, computed over the study periods shown in table 1. The Lancet Planetary Health 2017 1, e360-e367DOI: ( /S (17) ) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions
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Figure 2 Trends in heat-related and cold-related excess mortality by region The graph shows the excess mortality by decade attributed to heat and cold in nine regions and under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Estimates are reported as GCM-ensemble average decadal fractions. The shaded areas represent 95% empirical CIs. RCP=representative concentration pathway. GCM=general circulation model. The Lancet Planetary Health 2017 1, e360-e367DOI: ( /S (17) ) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions
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Figure 3 Temporal change in excess mortality by region
The graph shows the difference in excess mortality by decade compared with 2010–19 in nine regions and under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Estimates are reported as GCM-ensemble averages. The black vertical segments represent 95% empirical CIs of net difference. RCP=representative concentration pathway. GCM=general circulation model. The Lancet Planetary Health 2017 1, e360-e367DOI: ( /S (17) ) Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions
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