1. Economic Outlook 2016 Robert Carreira, Ph.D.
CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH
DOUGLAS
Economic Outlook 2016
Robert Carreira, Ph.D.

2. Real GDP Growth (%)
* Q1 only

3. Jobs United States Arizona Cochise County 138.4 mil 2.69 mil 39,300
Pre-Recession High
138.4 mil
(Jan 08)
2.69 mil
(Oct 07)
39,300
(Jun 08)
Recessionary Low
129.7 mil
(Feb 10)
2.37 mil
(Sep 10)
33,900
(Jul 13)
Recessionary Job Losses
-8.7 mil
-6.3%
-313,500
-11.7%
-5,400
-13.7%
Current *
144.2 mil
34,200
From High
+5.7 million
4.1%
+6,100
0.2%
-5,100
-13.0%
From Low
+14.4 mil
11.1%
+319,800
13.5%
300
0.9%
* US: June 2016; AZ & CC: May 2016

4. Cochise County Jobs by Industry
Peak
Current
(May 2016)
Change from Peak
Change from Peak (%)
Construction and Mining
2,900
(Jun 2006)
1,200
-1,700
-58.6%
Manufacturing
900
(Oct 2008)
500
-400
-44.4%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
7,100
(Dec 2007)
6,000
-1,100
-15.5%
Information
700
(Mar 2011)
400
-300
-42.9%
Financial Activities
1,100
(Dec 2008)
1,000
-100
-10.0%
Professional and Business Services
6,200
(Jan 2010)
3,500
-2,700
-43.5%
Educational and Health Services
5,300
0.0%
Leisure and Hospitality
4,300
(Apr 2008)
3,900
-9.3%
Other Services
(Mar 2006)
600
-500
-45.5%
Federal Government
(Aug 2011)
4,900
-18.3%
State and Local Government
7,700
(Jun 2008)
6,900
-800
-10.4%

5. Unemployment 4.4% 10.0% 5.3% 4.9% 3.7% 11.2% 5.8% 5.6% 3.5% 10.2% 7.1%
Pre-
Recession Low
Recessionary High
One Year Ago
Current*
United States
4.4%
(May 2007)
10.0%
(Oct 2009)
5.3%
4.9%
Arizona
3.7%
(Jul 2007)
11.2%
(Dec 2009)
5.8%
5.6%
Cochise County
3.5%
10.2%
(Jun 2011)
7.1%
6.5%
Douglas
11.5%
9.1%
7.7%
* US: June 2016; AZ & CC: May 2016; Douglas: December 2015

6. Local Labor Market Outlook
Upside
Bottom must be around here somewhere
Construction projects
Downside
Possibly not at the bottom

7. Retail Sales Growth (%)
Douglas
Cochise County
Arizona
2016*
-7.3
-8.2
1.2
2015
0.0
2.4
8.8
2014
-1.5
-1.0
1.9
2013
0.1
1.5
7.3
2012
4.5
2.5
2011
-1.2
7.1
2010
-4.8
-3.1
2009
-4.2
-10.7
2008
-6.5
-13.1
2007
-1.3
4.3
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *Jan-Apr only

8. Restaurant & Bar Sales Growth (%)
Douglas
Cochise County
Arizona
2016*
-0.3
2.7
8.0
2015
-1.1
3.9
5.1
2014
-7.8
1.4
7.3
2013
1.3
-0.5
2.2
2012
3.2
-4.4
5.0
2011
12.9
-0.2
2.1
2010
-1.2
0.0
1.8
2009
0.4
0.3
-5.4
2008
-7.7
0.2
-6.2
2007
-2.9
0.1
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *Jan-Apr only

9. Accommodations Sales Growth (%)
Douglas
Cochise County
Arizona
2016*
-20.8
-7.4
1.1
2015
9.2
8.2
12.2
2014
9.7
-0.6
9.9
2013
-13.1
-12.2
0.4
2012
-33.4
-17.2
1.7
2011
2.0
2010
8.3
0.8
2009
-9.0
-16.5
2008
1.0
-8.4
2007
19.7
1.4
Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U *Jan-Apr only

10. Sales Outlook Retail Restaurant & Bar Accommodation
Douglas: sharp decline, weak peso
Countywide: sharp decline, poor outlook
Restaurant & Bar
Douglas: Continued poor performance
Countywide: Increased tourism will help
Accommodation
Douglas: Construction projects will help
Countywide: Poor outlook

11. Home Sales

12. Median Home Price

13. Foreclosures (% of sales)

14. New Home Construction

15. Real Estate & Construction Outlook
Foreclosures
Upward pressure on sales
Downward pressure on prices
Dampened demand for new construction
Population declines = downward pressure on sales & new construction
Villages at Vigneto

16. Conclusion Recession Downside Upside
Kept out of recession by Fort Huachuca
Cochise County recession began in 2011
Downside
Weak peso vs. dollar
Population losses
Upside
Copper Queen emergency department
Other construction (CVS, Circle K)
Improving state and national economies will help tourism
Foreclosures and home values improving

17. THE END
CochiseEconomy.com