1. TC Winds Conference Call
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
11:00 AM

2. Agenda Holland et al. vs. Modified Rankine vs. H*Wind Images
Holland et al. Error Analysis

3. Holland et al. vs. Modified Rankine vs. H*Wind Images
Apologize for the delay (technical issues)
All verification images have now been posted for all available (Atlantic hurricane H*Wind analyses ; 219 total analyses)
Images have been posted at:
Collaborators are encouraged to view images and note any patterns for the various storms/analysis times and send to Bryce to include in final writeup for National Wind Team and for TCMWindTool developers

4. Holland et al. Error Analysis
Goal: potential hybrid approach to improved interpolation method
Minimize error method
Hypothesis we are testing:
-There are systematic errors in the interpolated error over the 219 available analysis times as a function of distance from storm center
-Develop error function E(q,r) to model these errors to improve the Holland et al. interpolation method

5. Holland et al. Error Analysis: Method
Minimize error method
Use all 219 storm analysis times
do ts = 1->num_available_analysis_times
     do i = quadrant 1->4
              //calculate average hwind analyzed wind speed at the various distances from storm center (1)           
//calculate Holland et al interpolated wind speed at the various distances from storm center (2)              
//take difference of (1) and (2) to provide estimate of quadrant error for the analysis time based on distance from storm center (where data available for both)    end do
end do

6. Holland et al. Error Analysis
For each quadrant and analysis time we then:
Calculate average error, binning each 5 km distances from storm center
Normalize error relative to best track maximum sustained winds provided by NHC for the analysis time
Result: four plots (one for each quadrant), normalized error vs. distance from storm center

7. Holland et al. Error Analysis Quadrant 1
(Holland – H*Wind)

8. Holland et al. Error Analysis Quadrant 2
(Holland – H*Wind)

9. Holland et al. Error Analysis Quadrant 3
(Holland – H*Wind)

10. Holland et al. Error Analysis Quadrant 4
(Holland – H*Wind)

11. Holland et al. (2010) Update
Can create improved Holland Interpolated Wind Field:
Holland_Improved(q, d) =
Holland Interp(q, d) +
Normalized Interp Error Function (q, d) * Max Wind

12. Focuses Next Month
Continuing working with Anantha on Holland et al. (2010) interpolation improvements
Curve fitting (as function of radius)
Add error fit to Holland et al. interpolated wind to get improved interpolated wind field for initialization in TCMWindTool
Sensitivity to how far out to adjust Holland et al. interpolated field (lack of observations near storm center)
WRF-LES simulation for Irene (2011)
Next conference call: Wednesday, April 10th, 11:00 AM