1. Pre Harvest Update 2015
October 1st 2015
Gary Woodruff GSI Conditioning Applications Manager

2. USDA Resource Descriptions
AGENDA
USDA Resource Descriptions
Crop Progress Report
U.S. Drought Monitor
USDA Weekly Weather Report
National Agricultural Statistics
What Those Resources Say About the Coming Harvest
How Will This Affect Drying & Storage?

3. Crop Progress Report Covers multiple crops Grain to Hay
Only covers States with significant (90% +) of volume in each crop category
Multiple reports per crop depending on time of season, for instance for Corn:
Corn Planted (Harvest Moisture)
Corn Condition (Yield)
Corn Silked (Harvest Timing)
Corn Dough (Harvest Timing)
Corn Dented (Harvest Timing)
Corn Mature (Harvest Timing)
Corn Harvested (Service Work Load)
Link:

4. U.S. Drought Monitor U.S. Wide Monitor It’s Macro not Micro
It’s an average so any specific spot may not be experiencing what is shown
Attempts to predict Short and Long Term durations
One option allows you to compare any two dates
Link:

5. USDA Weekly Weather Report
Covers all aspects
of Ag Weather
Can help predict
yield, Harvest Start
Date & Moisture
Levels
Link:

6. USDA Weekly Weather Report
Includes items like:
Total & % of Normal Precipitation
Average Soil Temperatures
(Helps predict planting start date)
Seasonal Drought Outlook (predicts the next 3 months)
Corn Planted & Condition Index charts when appropriate
Degree Day’s (Be careful, based upon calendar dates)
Crop Moisture Index by Division - Shallow Profile (immediate water needs by area)

7. National Agricultural Statistics
Complete Statistics for all 50 States that produce a reasonable volume of any crop
National and State Statistics on:
Various crop acreage
Previous years yields
Economics & Prices
Charts & Maps
Education & Outreach
You can determine shifts in corn/soybean or other product acreages for any State
Link:

8. What these Reports say about Harvest
At this point the Corn
Condition, Corn Maturity, Corn
Harvested and Weather issues
are the most important subjects
The timing varies based
upon what part of the country
you reside.
Declared Disaster Counties
The North’s Corn Harvest is behind 4.7%, Maturity -2.3% & Condition Index is 16.7 points above the U.S. Average of No North States have Declared Disaster areas.
The Central region Harvest is behind 2.6%, ahead 3.9% on maturity & Condition Index is 11.7 points below the average. In this area nearly all of IL, IN & parts of KS & MO have declared Disaster areas.
The South’s Harvest is 4% behind, Maturity -2.8% & Condition is 7.4 points below the average. Being behind on Maturity is not as big a deal as in the North. TX (-11) is off the most with all the others being +2 to -6% with only TX & MO behind the 5 yr. ave.

9. How will this Affect Drying & Storage?
Last year the North, Central & South were pretty uniform, but quite different from each other. This year we are not only back to variations in Maturity and Condition within a region, but those variations are extreme with very few near the average.
Let’s look at how this year shapes up in general and then by region.

10. First: Acres Not Planted Update reported by FSA 9/16/2015
As of Sept 1st, producers did not plant million acres of corn, million acres of soybeans, and about 700,000 acres of wheat plus other grains.
By far, Missouri was the state with the most prevented planting acres for both corn (.514 mil.) and soybeans (1.05 mil.). Other states with more than 100,000 acres of prevented corn plantings were Arkansas (190K), Colorado (199K) Iowa (115K), Louisiana (153K), Mississippi (241K), Nebraska (123K), South Dakota (111K), and Texas (172K).
Believe it or not these known prevented planting or drowned out acres will not appear in the USDA yield predictions until the November report. This should put a little upward pressure on corn prices if the predicted yield is reduced as many expect.
On 9/16 the FSA first announced mil. Acres for corn and 848,000 acres for soybeans not planted, which hit the futures market hard until 4 hours later when the right numbers were posted.

11. Region Corn Index Ave. Compared to U.S. 18 State Ave.
Corn Condition Index - Sept 27, 2015
National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2014 planted acreage
Very
Index
State
Poor
Fair
Good
Excel
Sept 27
+/- Ave.
Sept 20
+/- Week
Colorado 3 24 61 12
282 8
285 -3
Illinois 5 10 30 42 13
248
-26
245
Indiana 9 15 28 36
227
-47
224
Iowa 1 16 55 25
300 26
298 2
Kansas 31 47
252
-22
Kentucky 4 11 51 33
311 37
307
Michigan 6 22 52 18
278
274
Minnesota 53 35
321
Missouri 40
237
-37
236
Nebraska 19 54 20
North Carolina 17 32
213
-61
North Dakota 21 58
272 -2
271
Ohio 38
235
-39
Pennsylvania 39
289
South Dakota
292
Tennessee
315 41
Texas
257
-17
Wisconsin
299
297
18 States 7 49
Previous week
2014 Ave. 23
288 14
Green = Gain from last week
Red = loss from last week
Region Corn Index Ave. Compared to U.S. 18 State Ave.
North Ave.
16.7
Cent.
Ave.
-11.7
South Ave.
-7.4
CO, MI, MN, ND, SD & WI
IL, IN, IA, KS, NE, OH, PA
KY,MO, NC, TN & TX
Sept
Corn Condition

12. Crop Conditions by County Yield Difference 2015 compared to 2014 as of 9/3/15

14. 2015 has been pretty steady with the USDA still being optimistic last Friday lowering the expected corn yield .8 bu. to from This week the Index continues steady at 274 for the 5th week in a row, but some believe this will go down as real numbers come back from harvest.

16. Corn yield Decrease from 2014
A little out of date from 8/12, but still representative

17. Region Corn Mature Ave. Compared to their 5 yr. ave.
Corn Mature - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2014 corn acreage]
Week Ending
Good Cond.
State
27-Sep
20-Sep
Compared
& 5% or
2014
2015
Average
to 5yr Ave.
more Behind
(percent)
Colorado 36 45 60 53 7
Illinois 77 78 89 84 5
Indiana 64 52 70 72 -2
Iowa 55 49 71 76 -5 X
Kansas 86 2
Kentucky 83 92 90
Michigan 34 28 46 56
-10
Minnesota 41 67 63 4
Missouri 85 -6
Nebraska 61 47 65 69 -4
North Carolina 97 96 99
North Dakota 27 50 57 -7
Ohio 17
Pennsylvania 62 74 14
South Dakota 44 -1
Tennessee 87 95 94 1
Texas 73
-11
Wisconsin 26 51
U.S. AVERAGE
This Week
Previous Year 42
= Ahead or equal to last year & 5 year average
= Ahead of last year, but behind 5 year average
= Behind or equal to last year & 5 year average
Region Corn Mature Ave. Compared to their 5 yr. ave.
North
-2.3
Central
3.9
South
-2.8
CO, MI, MN, ND, SD & WI
IL, IN, IA, KS, NE, OH, PA
MO, KY, NC, TN & TX
Sept
Corn Mature

18. Region Corn Mature Ave. Compared to their 5 yr. ave.
Corn Harvested - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 94% of the 2014 corn acreage]
Week Ending
State
27-Sep
20-Sep
Compared
2014
2015
Average
to 5yr Ave.
(percent)
Colorado 5 1 7 10 -3
Illinois 13 30 34 -4
Indiana 8 18 22
Iowa 2 14 -9
Kansas 27 42 46
Kentucky 45 35 52 57 -5
Michigan - 4 9
Minnesota 3 -7
Missouri 31 48 -2
Nebraska 6 16 -6
North Carolina 70 80 81 -1
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania 17 24 15
South Dakota
Tennessee 53 43 64 71
Texas 68 61 63
Wisconsin
U.S. AVERAGE
This Week 11 23
Previous Year 12
-11
= Ahead or equal to last year & 5 year average
= Ahead of last year, but behind 5 year average
= Behind or equal to last year & 5 year average
Region Corn Mature Ave. Compared to their 5 yr. ave.
North
-4.7
Central
-2.6
South
CO, MI, MN, ND, SD & WI
IL, IN, IA, KS, NE, OH, PA
MO, KY, NC, TN & TX
Sept
Corn Harvest

19. 8-14 Day Temperature Forecast

20. 8-14 Day Precipitation Forecast

23. How will this Affect Drying & Storage? South
Corn acreage is down, conditions are dry
The South saw another reduction in corn acreage & the condition index is about 7.4% below the U.S. Average of 274.
Per the drought map parts of the South ranges from a little dry to extreme drought in the area from TX to ME then GA.
In the States that make the top 18 compared to their yields KY -12, MO -36, NC -17, TN -3 and TX -5.
Harvest is in progress, some are done. Corn maturity is 3% behind the 5 yr ave, Harvest behind 4%. The crop this year should be on the dry side. So far dryer performance has been good.
Unless the dry conditions have affected grain quality, storage issues should be about normal.

24. How will this Affect Drying & Storage? Central
Conditions
The Central region has had the most variable crop condition year most can remember.
Condition Index numbers vary from 47 points below the U.S. ave. of 274 in IN to 26 points above in IA.
In those areas hit hard by early rain, particularly Southern Illinois & Indiana much of the crop was severely stunted and today stalk height and ear development vary greatly across most fields.
The other States in the Central Region range all over compared to the U.S. average. Yes, Iowa and Nebraska are doing very well, but many question the USDA’s 3rd largest crop ever prediction.

25. How will this Affect Drying? Central
What will moisture be at harvest?
This area is 4% ahead of the 5 year average for Corn Maturity thanks to the recent dry hot recent weather.
This area is now looking at a dryer harvest than the 5 yr. ave.
Areas in Southern Illinois, Indiana & OH have a short crop which will likely dry fast.
But, heavily stressed crops have a lot of stalk issues and this should promote early harvest to prevent losses. So far this is not in evidence.
IA had a minor frost event in the Northeast last 9/11 which can change things quickly stopping maturity and causing drying issues if more occur.

26. How will this Affect Storage? Central
How will this affect Dryers & Storage.
No matter the harvest moisture kernel to kernel & field variation in rain stressed States will be off the map from uneven maturity. Drying issues such as fines & reduced capacity are to be expected.
Running aeration to equalize kernel to kernel moisture will be essential. Mold will likely become an issue in some areas from stressed field conditions.
This year it will be very important to follow correct storage practices, not doing so will mean out of condition grain.

27. How will this Affect Drying & Storage? North
Planting was early, but it has been Wet & Cool
The North is behind 2.3% on Corn Maturity, which is 2% better than a month ago due to high temperatures.
The Condition reports across the North are very good, near 17 points on ave. above the U.S. average of 274 and that bodes well for yields and grain quality.
Minnesota was done planting when they are normally at 50%. But Monday they were 2.3% behind on Maturity.
On 9/11 there was an area of frost in NE IA and that is pretty close to WI & MN. With 40 to 50% still not mature and less than 10% harvested there is still a lot of acres in possible jeopardy.

28. How will this Affect Drying & Storage? North
The North is used to high moisture corn and will likely be better prepared than others if the wet conditions prevail.
Stand was not as variable as the Central region, but all the normal fines & other dryer challenges may occur depending on harvest moisture making storage a challenge.
If frost hits drying & storage will become extremely difficult.
Farmers will need to follow the storage guidelines.
So lets go over them.

29. The Universities have good resources on their web sites
Storage Tips
The Universities have good resources on their web sites
Dry the grain to a safe level.  No higher than 15% if the grain is to be left cold and marketed no later than May.  14% if the grain is to be held until next fall and 13% if it is expected the grain will be stored for more than a year. 
As grain enters the bin, run the aeration fans and continue after it is full to equalize kernel grain moisture.  This usually takes 5 to 10 days depending on the aeration level.  This equalizes the moisture and puts the grain in the best shape to store safely.
Do not fill the bin above 6” from the top of the sidewall. Doing so reduces aeration air and causes head space issues.

30. Storage Tips
Watch the ambient temperature and using the aeration fans get the temperature of the grain below 50 degrees as soon as possible.  Nearly all insect and mold activity ceases below this temperature.
It is still OK to use a spreader for older smaller bins, but for bins larger than 48’ 13 rings tall you should load directly into the bin and then every 10’ to 15’ pull out about 300 bu. of grain creating an inverted
cone, a practice known as repetitive
coring.  This removes a great deal of
the fines that accumulate in the center
improving aeration a great deal.

31. Storage Tips
As soon as possible after harvest pull the bins with peaked grain down so the center is just below the corn at the wall.  The grain will look somewhat like an M from the side.   This promotes air movement in the center.  Leveling at this point is also a good practice.
From this point follow your local Universities aeration recommendations from their web sites.  You can leave your grain cold, bringing it up to 50 degrees when the ambient temperatures reach that level if you will definitely market it by spring, but remember to bag off the fans and discharge equipment so moisture laden air cannot chimney affect into the bin.  For longer storage it is best to keep the grain relatively close to the ambient temperatures using the aeration system. 

32. Storage Tips Monitoring:
Check the grain weekly.  Climb to the top and without entering the bin observe whether there is a crust or any noticeable smell.  An increase in surface moisture usually is the first sign of problems.
If there is anything amiss start the aeration fans to attempt to stop the issue as soon as possible.  This may work in small bins under 48’ 13 ring.  It is not possible to get enough air to see a high level of success on larger bins.
The only real fix for out of condition issues which are not stopped by aeration is to unload the bin down to where the affected grain is out of the bin.  This likely means the grain will have to be marketed early and poor grain quality may receive a dock at the elevator. Prevention is always the best answer

33. Storage Tips
Digital Monitoring & Aeration Controllers:
An option for monitoring and aeration control may be the digital monitor control systems. These systems monitor grain temperature and moisture while controlling aeration. They provide web based monitoring of the grain with a complete history. They also provide , text and phone alerts for any issue.
They catch problems faster, but possibly the biggest advantage is they can bring the grain down below 50 degrees quicker than you can manually.

34. Storage Tips
Safety
Safety should be everyone’s prime concern.  A wet fall means long hours and the opportunity to fall or have injuries so be careful.
Use proper respiratory protection any time you enter a bin or work with grain.
Virtually all bin entrapments occur because someone entered the bin due to grain being out of condition. 
Following proper storage practices greatly reduces the chances of out of condition grain reducing entrapments.

35. Have a Great 2015 Harvest & Storage Season