1. With assistance from NCASI
The 100-year method for corporate accounting of carbon stored in forest products
A Project of the International Council of Forest and Paper Associations (ICFPA)
With assistance from NCASI
Reid Miner, NCASI

2. Today’s presentation
Overview of carbon in the forest products value chain
The importance of carbon in products-in-use
Methods for characterizing carbon in products-in-use
Real-time changes in current stocks (national inventory method, CCAR-recommended method)
Projected future changes in stocks (100-year method)
Considerations in using the 100-year method
Method acceptance

3. Sequestered atmospheric carbon in the forest products value chain
Large throughput
Very small stocks
Recycling
Forest
Mills
Users
Landfills
Large stocks
Growth vs. Removals
Not normally managed to increase carbon stocks
Large throughput
Very small stocks
Large stocks
Change in stocks depends on time-in-use and new production
Role of increases in population and standards of living
Large stocks
Change in stocks depends on discards, rate of decompostion and non-degradable fraction

4. The importance of carbon in products-in-use
Recycling
Forest
Mills
Users
Landfills
To understand forest carbon, you need to look beyond the forest
Is the carbon in products-in-use worth worrying about?
Industry’s global GHG emissions = 72 MMTC/yr
Global stocks of carbon in products-in-use growing by 40 MMTC/yr
Carbon in products-in-use is clearly important
Carbon in forests and landfills also important
Consensus corporate accounting methods needed

5. Options for characterizing carbon storage in products-in-use
Estimate real-time-changes in current stocks of carbon in products-in-use
The “national inventory method”
The California Climate Action Registry recommended method
Estimate future changes in stocks of carbon in products-in-use
The 100-year method

6. The National Inventory Method
IPCC guidelines (Tier 2)
Change in stocks equal to difference between annual additions (new products) and losses (removed from service)
Additions = new production in year X
Losses = fraction of stocks in-use in year X
Can sometimes periodically check against
Surveys of housing stocks, etc. (additions)
Waste management statistics (losses)

7. Losses usually a function of existing stocks of carbon in-use
IPCC Tier 2 method reconstructs existing carbon stocks by going back to 1900 and annually adding new production and removing a fraction of the existing stock.
Can check results against estimates of stocks in a given year (surveys, etc.)

8. Can the national inventory method be used by corporations?
Companies know new production, but…
Companies don’t know losses from existing stocks
No way to estimate or reconstruct current stocks attributable to company’s past production
Corporate mergers, spin-offs, etc.
National inventory is retrospective
Does not recognize future impacts of current production
Not useful for examining opportunities for improvement

9. California Climate Action Registry recommended method
CCAR recommends variation on national inventory method, but acknowledges that other methods exist and may be used
CCAR method begins accumulating stocks when a company enters the program
Avoids problem with not knowing the size of the pool of carbon associated with past production, but…
Results in troublesome “start-up effect”

10. CCAR recommended method - The start up effect
Consider annual production of 10 and losses from use = 10% of existing stocks at start of year
Year one: 10 in, 0 out, stock change = +10
Year two: 10 in, 1 out, stock change = +9
Year three: 10 in, 1.9 out, stock change = +8.1
Year ten: 10 in, out 6.9, stock change = +3.1
Year twenty: 10 in, out 8.6, stock change = +1.4
Very undesirable feature of corporate accounting method

11. Estimating future changes in carbon stocks – The 100-year method
Use time-in-use information to estimate the amount of carbon in new production that is expected to remain in use for at least 100-years
First used by S. Galeano, Georgia-Pacific Corp.
Requires no information on stocks attributable to past production
Reflects attributes of new production, not impacted by past production (improvement opportunities)
Simple, transparent, reproducible
Industry has proposed use under 1605b in U.S.

12. Half-life of carbon (years)
Half lives for primary products
IPCC Defaults (IPCC 2003a)
Saw wood 35
Veneer, plywood and structural panels 30
Non-structural panels 20
Paper 2
Half lives for specific end uses in the U.S.
(Skog and Nicholson 1998)
Single-family homes (post-1980)
100
Multifamily homes 70
Mobile homes
Nonresidential construction 67
Pallets 6
Furniture
1 to 6
Half-lives for Canadian inventory
(Kurz et.al. 1992)
Construction lumber 60
Other lumber
< 1 1

14. Possible issues related to the 100-year method
Why 100 years?
Some want shorter times
Short-term impacts/mitigation opportunities
More accurate estimates, less uncertainty
Bigger numbers
Some want longer times
Address concerns regarding temporary sequestration
Recognize time frames to allow societal transformation to a low-carbon future
Smaller numbers
100 years a reasonable compromise

15. Possible issues related to the 100-year method
Not consistent with national inventory methods
Not intended for national inventories
100-year method could still be used in national policies intended to encourage sequestration, which would improve national inventory results
Not clearly integrated with forest/landfill carbon
Additional calculation tools needed
Lack of information on time-in-use
Information quality varies
Good data for some nations and products
In other cases, new data needed –national inventory time-in-use curves sometimes not appropriate for 100-year projections

16. Analysis of US Housing data
US National
inventory
assumes
0.3 to 0.5
remaining

17. All forest products

18. Software for 100-year method

19. Gaining acceptance of the 100-year method
Accepted by International Council of Forest and Paper Associations
Discussions initiated with WRI and WBCSD to gain acceptance under the GHG Protocol
Proposed as option under 1605(b)
Ready for use in areas where reliable time-in-use data are available – e.g. U.S.
Other areas may require additional documentation
Integrating corporate accounting tools that cover the other pieces of the forest carbon value chain

20. Thank you
Questions?