1. The automotive industry
Development Economics and emerging markets
A.Y
The automotive industry
And the emerging markets
Dr. Chiara Pollio – Dept. of Economics and Management, University of Ferrara
c.MET05

2. Premises: what we will discuss (and what we will not)
WHAT WE WILL NOT DISCUSS
Features of the supply
The social distribution of production
The spatial distribution of production
Some reference to the policies (for China)
Some reference to technology transfer (for China)
Features of the demand
Technical characteristics of the supply
Technical characteristics of the products
Innovation
Green

3. The global role of the sector
Why the automotive?
The global macroeconomic role
9 millions of workers directly involved– 5 % of manufacturing(OICA, 2005). 50 millions of workers indirectly involved.
The international dimension
First sector in the manufacturing for greenfield investments (UNCTAD, 2015)
Third sector for international trade (WTO, 2015).
The economic development potential
A driving force in industrialisation
An internal complex articulation
Lots of forward and backward linkages

4. Two descriptive focuses
The social distribution of production
(among actors)
The spatial distribution of production
(among countries/regions)

5. The social distribution of production
1. Introduction

6. The automotive sector
Backward activities
Forward activities
Parts & Components
Suppliers
Sellers
Aftermarket
Other activities, supporting industry
For each vehicle between and parts!!!
Ora. il mercato è costituito dalla domanda e dall’offerta
Partiamo con l’offerta. Prima di provare a capire quale sia la struttura di mercato. guardiamo un attimo a come si arriva al prodotto finito. cioè com’è composto il settore. e cosa si muove dalla parte dell’offerta
Insurance
Full vehicle
Carmakers …

7. The social distribution of production
2. The automakers

8. What is the automotive market?
Defining the market
All motor vehicles
Which firms compete against each others (geography, products)? Among which products do the consumers choose?
The product market definition should include all products that are close substitutes for one another, both in consumption and in production
In geographical terms, we are in the same market if a variation of the price of a product in one location affects either the demand or supply – the price – in another geographical location
NATIONAL o SUPRANATIONAL
Light commercial vehicles and cars
Only cars
Car segments

9. Describing the automotive oligopoly
What is an oligopoly?
Small number of firms
Interdependence
Product differentiation
Large entry/exit barriers

10. Describing the automotive oligopoly
Who produces?
In 2016, the car world production was 67 mln vehicles, of which 17 in UE (700 thousands in Italy)
Globally, 50 international automakers are responsible of about 99% of world production
In Europe, 15 manufactures control almost the whole full vehicles production
In the world
In Europe
Brands
Nr. Vehicles
Nr Vehicles
Toyota
10,475,338
Volkswagen
4,706,421
9,894,891
PSA
1,592,413
G.M.
9,609,326
BMW
1,445,076
Hyundai
8,008,987
FIAT-Chrysler
1,377,100
Ford
5,969,541
Renault
1,114,648
Nissan
5,097,772
Fuji
1,082,616
Fiat
4,865,758
Honda
851,207
4,513,769
655,844
Suzuki
3,016,710
Mitsubishi
631,170
2,917,046
525,806
Interdipendenza può portare a situazioni di competizione o di collusione/collaborazione. L’automotive ha all’interno entrambe le forme
Source: OICA.net

11. Market concentration
In the world…

12. Market concentration The italian case Brands… …or groups? Brands Sales
Fiat
329,117
Volkswagen
119,003
Ford
109,250
Renault
94,769
Opel
88,940
Peugeot
84,345
Toyota
65,571
Nissan
57,479
Lancia/Chrysler
56,363
Audi
54,799
Tot (46)
1,574,438
Groups
Sales
Fiat
447,599
Volkswagen
204,097
PSA
142,931
Renault
138,721
Ford
109,250 GM
89,273
Hyundai
86,385
Daimler
77,719
BMW
71,740
Toyota
68,859
Tot (27)
1,574,498
Calculation on UNRAE data
Indexes
CR4
CR5
CR8 HH
Gini
41.41
47.06
60.23
768.30
0.68
Indexes
CR4
CR5
CR8 HH
Gini
59.27
66.20
82.29
0.73

13. Studying the automotive oligopoly
Differentiation
What do these two products have in common?

14. The differentiation – the segments
17.8%
A – city cars (mini cars)
Fiat Panda, Ford KA…
B - Small cars
Lancia Ypsilon, Toyota Yaris
C – Medium cars
Ford Focus, Opel Astra
D – Large cars
Volkswagen Passat, Audi q3
E – Executive cars
Audi A6, Mercedes classe E
F – Luxury cars
Ferrari, Maserati…
42.1%
20.0%
11.6%
1.9%
0.3%
UNRAE Data (2014)

15. Collusions, collaborations, etc…
Mergers and acquisitions
Strategic alliances
A merger takes place when two independent companies join in a single one. When there is a clear distinction between the acquiring company and the acquired one, mergers become acquisitions or takeover.
Horizontal integration: the companies produce the same goods.
Advantages: increse in the market power, cost reduction, etc..
An alliance is an “organizational structure to govern an incomplete contract between separate firms and in which each firm has limited control” (Gomes, Casseres, 2001)
Strategic alliances are used as an alternative to mergers if they are less expensive and generate positive synergies
Compared to mergers, that are ruled by market prices, are competitive and risky (irreversible), alliances are negotiated, cooperative and less risky (reversible).

16. …in the automotive market
Particularly between the ‘90s and the 2000s
Brands concentration through a wave of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
On the industrial side – selective closing of some plants, with employment losses and damages to the local satellites activities
Contemporarily, on the sales side the largest advantages came from the enlargement of the supplied range of products, the concentration of distribution networks and enlargement of markets
Next to M&A, automakers also developed a number of alliances and collaborations:
Development of new models
Platform sharing
Entry in new markets

18. Summing up…
At the global (and regional) level, a small number of producers dominate the market
Market concentration should be evaluated in the light of:
The control of several brands by a small number of groups
The large differentiation among segments (are they really substitutes to each other?)
Highly differentiated market
Segments
Ads
High sunk costs that constitute large entry barriers

19. The social distribution of production
3. The supply chain

20. For each vehicle between 20.000 and 30.000 parts!!!
The Supply CHAIN
Parts & Components
Suppliers
Backward aivities
Forward activities
Sellers
Aftermarket
For each vehicle between and parts!!!
Ora. il mercato è costituito dalla domanda e dall’offerta
Partiamo con l’offerta. Prima di provare a capire quale sia la struttura di mercato. guardiamo un attimo a come si arriva al prodotto finito. cioè com’è composto il settore. e cosa si muove dalla parte dell’offerta
Insurance
Full vehicle
Carmakers …

21. The structure of the supply chain/1
Carmaker
Supplier
…To a pyramid structure
Japanese automakers
Ownership, hierarchic relations
Long run, quality
Many outsourced parts
… Just in time system
Carmaker
1st tier suppliers
2nd tier suppliers
3rd tier suppliers
From a concentric structure…
US and European automakers
Market relations
Short run, lowest price
Many in-house parts.. Just in case system

22. The structure of the supply chain/2
Tiered specialisation: the carmakers focuses on the core competencies, while outsourcing to the supply chain other functions.
The chain is structured on many levels:
Automaker (R&D, overall design, assembly, sales and marketing)
First tier suppliers (large companies– machineries, semi-assemblied and core parts)
Second tier suppliers (SMEs, the manufacture minor parts and components and sell them to the first tier)
Third (and fourth) tier suppliers: simpler parts or “supporting industry”
As we move towards lower tiers, firms dimensions decrease and they are involved in more and more elementary activities

23. The structure of the supply chain/3
Automakers made an effort to reduce and rationalise their functions, focusing on core competences. THEREFORE more and more functions are outsourced.
The outsourced functions are a lot, and sometimes they involve very complex tasks. The necessity to coordinate the manufacturing stages increases. THEREFORE the linkage between automakers and first tier suppliers tightens
Given the complexity of outsourced fuctions, the role of first tier suppliers is increased. THEREFORE Global Suppliers emerge.

24. The structure of the supply chain/4
The global suppliers are first tier suppliers that acquired a large number of responsibilities in the production, enlarging both the range of their competencies and their geographical reach
The large first tier supplier are nowadays in charge of components design, manufacturing and assembly in modules, and they produce about 70% of the final value of the full vehicle
System Integrators (design and integration of components or sub-assemblied parts), Global Standardized–Systems Manufacturers (design, development and manufacturing of complex systems), Component Specialists (manufacturing of specific components and sub-systems for a given model or platform) and Raw Material Suppliers
What role for small, local suppliers?

25. The spatial distribution of production
1. A general description

26. The emerging markets/1 The Final product Thousands Japan UE-15
Northern
America
Developing countries
La crisi.. Etc

27. Which emerging markets?
Triad
China
Other Asia/Oc.
Brazil
Eastern Europe
India
Mexico
Russia
Others

28. Which emerging producers?
Nr of Firms
Production (thousnads)
Production (as % of the total)
First 20 producers
2004
2014
Triad 23 18
54,441.67
67,504.21
84.41
74.41 16 14
South Korea 3 1
3,819.62
8,008.99
5.92
8.83 2
China 22
3,226.05
11,361.82
5.00
12.52 4
India
564.00
1,498.03
0.87
1.65
Iran –
988.69
0.00
1.09
Malaysia
125.48
111.84
0.19
0.12
Russia 5
1,165.88
633.98
1.81
0.70

29. The emerging markets/2 The Supply chain
Where are the global producers coming from?
N. America
W. Europe
Japan
S.Korea
China
Others

30. The emerging markets/2 The Supply chain
Where are the global producers selling?

31. The emerging markets/2 The Supply chain Who’s the most regionalized?
N. America
W. Europe
Japan
S.Korea
China
Others

32. The emerging markets/3 Trade flows Billions From and to the triad
From and to the extra-Triad

33. Different role (regional players)
Net exports
The big players
Triad
South Korea
Mexico
Eastern Europe
China
Triad
South Korea
Mexico
Eastern Europe
China
Net exports
Brazil South-East Asia India

34. The big players Full Vehicles Components Triad South Korea Mexico
Eastern Europe
China

35. The spatial distribution of production
2 “Regionalization within a global pattern” and the case of Southeast Asia and China

36. Different geographical dimensions of the sector:
GLOBAL
Trade liberalization and entry of emerging markets in the WTO: a – potential – global extent of the market Freyssenet, 2003a,b;
Investment plans, the market entry strategies, the R&D projects, alliances among automakers and between automakers and suppliers become necessarily global (Sturgeon et al., 2008; Sturgeon et al., 2009).
LOCAL
On the demand side, markets are heterogeneous: horizontally (Boyer and Freyssenet, 2005) and vertically (Freyssenet, 2003a,b)
On the supply, transport costs and fragility (Berta and Ciravegna, 2006); services market-specific (Rugman and Collison, 2004)
On the institutional side: infrastructural and safety standards (Humphrey e Memedovic, 2003; Nieuwenhuis e Wells, 2015); government pressions to localization (Chin, 2010; Doner, 2009; Thuy, 2008; Wad, 2008; Tsuji e Quan, 2005)
REGIONAL
In this sector, trade liberalization has been based on regional agreements (NAFTA, various agr. in ASEAN context)
The production chain is regionally integrated (Sturgeon et al., 2008, Sturgeon et al., 2009): vehicles models are thought to be sold in different countries of a same region, also the production is spread among countries of a region (Kohpaiboon, 2008)

37. REGIONALIZATION IN EMERGING CONTEXTS
’90s: stagnation in Triad markets and growth in emeriing economies (East Asia)
Various ways of integration in the production chain
fast–growing emerging markets (ASEAN, China India, Est Europe, Messico, Sud America) Vs Row
Among these: protected atonomous markets: autonomous actors (China)
Emerging regional markets: hubs (Thailand -> Asean, Brazil -> Mercosur)
Peripheral regional markets: resource seeking investments (Eastern Europe, Vietnam)
Seeking for value:
Assembly VS components
What prospects with global suppliers emersion?

38. Regional Relevance Produzione, migliaia di veicoli Region Country 1998
2008
2014
South America
2.031
3.936
3.799
% on Total
3,8
5,6
4,2
% on Developing
23,7
15,1
8,6
Of which Brazil
1.573
3.215
3.146
2,9
4,5
3,5
18,3
12,3
7,1
Other Asia
917
3.945
5.456
1,7
6,1
10,7
12,4
Of which India
513
2.332
3.840
1,0
3,3
4,3
6,0
9,0
8,7
Region/country
1998
2008
2014
Southeast Asia and China
1.962
11.371
27.624
% on Total
3,7
16,1
30,8
% on Developing
22,9
43,7
62,7
Of which China
1.627
9.299
23.722
3,0
13,1
26,4
19,0
35,7
53,8
Other Southeast Asia
335
2.072
3.901
0,6
2,9
4,3
3,9
8,0
8,9
Produzione, migliaia di veicoli

39. Regional integration…
Southeast Asia: ASEAN 5 – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines Thailand, Vietnam
China
This group of countries is both formally – trade agreements – and substantially integrated
Largest and oldest integration among ASEAN 5
The regional production network (Noble, 2001; Kobayashi et al., 2015; Staples, 2008; Doner, 1991)
The role of Japanese capital (Hill and Lee, 1994, Doner et al., 2004)
The agreements related to the sector (Noble, 2001)
But China should be included
An emerging actor in the regional relations (ASEAN + China agreements)
Delocalization of Chinese plants towards some countries of the area
Competition and cooperation

40. …And inner diversity Vehicles production Sources: OICA.net China
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippines
Vietnam
Sources: OICA.net

41. And inner diversity/2 Intraregional trade Final vehicles Components
China
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Sources: UNCOMTRADE
Vietnam

42. … And inner diversity/3 Actors Final vehicles
Components (global suppliers)
Origin
Nr of vehicles
China
Europe
Japan
USA
Corea
Philippines
96.420
291
Indonesia …
1.500
Malaysia
4.974
Thailand
1.322
Vietnam
48.607
264
Philippines
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
China
Germany
USA
Mexico
Japan
Other Triad
Brazil
S. Korea
India
Sources: Marketline, Automotive News

43. % of the country’ss flow
China and Thailand
Largest producers
Largest number of actors (automakers and suppliers)
Largest trade flows
The role in regional trade
Regional trade by countries
Bilateral Trade
Global Trade (mln $)
Intra-regional trade
(mln $)
% of the country’ss flow
% of the region’s flow
China
153,59
6,95
4,52
24,01
Philippines
5,47
2,81
51,34
9,70
Indonesia
11,45
4,99
43,58
17,24
Malaysia
8,45
3,54
41,88
12,23
Thailand
34,31
8,54
24,89
29,51
Vietnam
5,10
2,11
41,50
7,31
Destination
China
Philippines
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Vietnam
Origin –
13,67
18,12
20,3
17,6
28,72
18,67
35,5
1,66
42,33
1,84
11,51
17,5
8,52
58,59
3,87 25
1,32
9,57
62,47
1,64
12,67
22,24
33,33
22,71
9,04
49,31
2,65
7,58
4,15
36,31
Sources: UNCOMTRADE

44. China, a case study
Technology transfer and selective policies

45. Technology transfer and policies
Introduction
Technology transfer and policies
Automotive is a pillar industry (Thun, 2006; Nolan, 2001)
From Joint ventures (JV) to Independent innovations
.. But, China still has a secondary role…
Why? What hasn’t worked (yet) in the upgrading of the system?
Look at the performance of innovation policies...

46. China in the international context
Main role of China as a global production place
BUT Still a peripheral role as a global player
Automakers: chinese are in charge of the 12,5% of global production, but just 4 among the first 20 are Chinese. None among the first 10
(Global) suppliers: Among the first 100, only 2 Chinese at 2015, ranked18th and… 76th
Sources: OICA.net
China
Rest of the world
Japan
North America
Motivazioni dello spostamento in buona parte market-driven, ma anche dettata dall’abbassamento dei costi di produzione

47. Chinese policies for the upgrading of the sector
Automotive as a strategic sector
Initially developed through SOEs (‘50-’60)
Strategic involvment of national and local government
Historically and still nowadays a pillar industry (Chu, 2011)
Dedicated industrial plans
Interactionwith foreign capitals
Forms of the government’s strategic intervention

48. 1. The automotive industrial plans (Pollio et al., 2016)
AIP 1994
Increasing the localization of complex production phases
Automotive as a infant industry
Mix of EOI-ISI policies
AIP 2004
Enhancement of indigenous technology capabilities
Branding
Increase chinese R&D and patents
Increasing competitiveness
AIRRP 2009
Emphasis of internal market
Green technology
Independent innovation
Technological leapfrogging
ESENEAIP 2011
Innovation and greening …
Increasing the innovation resources of CHINESE ACTORS

49. 2. JOINT VENTURES AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
Development since ‘80s
Main actors: SOEs
JV: up to present (2017) only entry way for foreign enterprises in final vehicle production
Working upon the mechanism: Market for technology (Thun, 2006; Chin, 2010)
Aim for Chinese manufacturers: encourage the learning and the technology transfer (in perspective.. Increasing the independent innovation practices)… obbligated embeddedness (Liu and Dicken, 2004)
Different roles between Chinese and foreign partners : power asymmetry (Balcet and Ruet, 2011; Rubini and Barbieri, 2013)?
Sales champions in the domestic markets (and an enlarging gap)
…but this strategy has some limitations (Lüthje and Tian, 2015)

50. A comparison in patenting between jv and other firms
Automakers
sUPPLIERS
Media brevetti per impresa JV
174,08
CHINESE
143,51
Media brevetti per impresa JV
10,13
CHINESE
8,92
FOREIGN
1,24
(Wilcoxon test: z=2,01; p-value=0,04)
(Anova test: F=19,62; p-value=0,00)
Pollio et al., 2016

51. Joint ventures and other actors –time trend
Avg. Patents by automakers
Joint ventures
Chinese
Avg. Patents by suppliers
Nel primo caso, i dati sembrerebbero confermare che, se da un lato la presenza del capitale straniero ha contribuito positivamente all’aumento del contenuto tecnologico delle produzioni, dall’altro ciò non si è tradotto in un trasferimento della capacità innovativa appropriata per via di brevetti registrati direttamente dalle case nazionali, in particolare e in maniera più marcata nel periodo post-crisi. BIFORCAZIONE
Per i produttori di componentistica, varie interpretazioni:
Da un lato, questo potrebbe essere conseguenza di una scelta strategica della casa madre, che preferisce registrare i brevetti (inclusi quelli derivanti da attività innovativa della propria sede in China) a nome proprio.
Dall’altro, esso potrebbe essere invece conseguenza di una scelta strategica della sede cinese dell’impresa straniera – e dunque dell’impresa straniera stessa – che potrebbe preferire di realizzare la propria attività innovativa realizzata tramite il canale delle joint venture.
Per quanto riguarda la parte cinese, la coerenza molto elevata del trend confrontato con quello delle joint venture suggerisce l’esistenza di comportamenti simili, per comprendere i quali andranno in futuro ulteriormente analizzate le relazioni proprietarie tra i due gruppi: in particolare, per le imprese cinesi, come è già stato accennato, quello delle joint venture è solo uno dei canali di upgrading tecnologico che è stato promosso dal governo, il che vuol dire che solo un gruppo delle imprese presente nel campione “cinese” corrisponde a quello degli shareholders delle joint venture, mentre altri attori non ne sono coinvolti.
Joint ventures
Chinese
Foreign

52. Thanks for your attention
Question time!

53. references
Balcet, G., and Ruet, J. (2011) "From joint ventures to national champions or global players? Alliances and technological catching-up in Chinese and Indian automotive industries.", European Review of Industrial Economics and Policy, 3.
Berta, G. and Ciravegna, L. (2006) "Il Sistema Mondiale dell’auto e la sua nuova configurazione.", Annali Di Storia dell’'Impresa, 17, pp.99–136.
Boyer, R. and Freyssenet, M. (2005) Oltre Toyota: i nuovi modelli produttivi. Milan: EGEA.
Chin, G. T. (2010) China’s Automotive Modernization: The Party-State and Multinational Corporations. Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Chu, W.-W. (2011) "How the Chinese government promoted a global automobile industry.", Industrial and Corporate Change, 20(5), pp.1235–1276.
Doner, R. F. (1991) Driving a Bargain - Automobile Industrialization and Japanese Firms in Southeast Asia, Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.
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Freyssenet, M., Shimizu, K. and Volpato, G. (eds). (2003a) Globalization or Regionalization of the American and Asian Car Industry? London: GERPISA/Palgrave/McMilllan.
Freyssenet, M., Shimizu, K. and Volpato, G. (eds). (2003b) Globalization or Regionalization of the European Car Industry? London: GERPISA/Palgrave/McMilllan.

54. References (cont.d)
Gomes-Casseres, B. (2001). The logic of alliance fads: why collective competition spreads. Strategic Alliances and Firm Adaptation: A Coevolution Perspective, ME Sharpe.
Hill R.C. and Lee Y.J. (1994) Japanese Multinationals and East Asian Development - The case of the automobile industry. In: Sklair L. (a cura di) Capitalism & Development. Londra: Routledge.
Humphrey, J. and Memedovic, O. (2003) "The Global Automotive Industry Value Chain: What Prospects for Upgrading by Developing Countries.", UNIDO Sectoral Studies Series, Vienna.
Kobayashi, H. Jin, Y. and Schroeder, M. (2015) "ASEAN economic community and the regional automotive industry: impact of ASEAN economic integration on two types of automotive production in Southeast Asia.". International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 15(3), pp
Kohpaiboon, A. (2008) "Thai Automotive Industry: Multinational Enterprises and Global Integration.", Economic Research and Training Center, Thammasat University, Discussion Paper Series, (4).
Lüthje, B. e Tian, M. (2015) "China's Automotive Industry: Structural Impediments to Socio- economic Rebalancing.", International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 15(3), pp
Nieuwenhuis, P. and Wells, P. E. (2015) "Global versus Local: Regionalism in a Global Industry.", In:, Nieuwenhuis P. and Wells, P. E. (eds) The Global Automotive Industry. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Noble G.W. (2001) "Congestion Ahead : Japanese Automakers in Southeast Asia.", Business Politics, 3(2), pp
Nolan, P. (2001) China and the Global Economy: National Champions, Industrial Policy, and the Big Business Revolution. Basingstoke e New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

55. References (cont.d)
Pollio, C., Barbieri, E., Rubini, L., and Di Tommaso, M. R. (2016). Attrarre basta per innovare? La via cinese nell'industria dell'auto. L'industria, 37(4),
Rubini L. and Barbieri E. (2013), Percorsi evolutivi nel sostegno alle imprese in Cina. Un’analisi delle imprese leader e riflessioni sulla politica industriale, in «L’industria», 34, 3, pp Rugman, A. M. and Collinson, S. (2004) "The Regional Nature of the World’s Automotive Sector.", European Management Journal, 22(5), pp.471–482.
Staples, A. (2008) Responses to Regionalism: Corporate Strategy in East Asia. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Sturgeon, T. J., Memedovic, O. and Van Biesebroeck, J. (2009) "Globalisation of the Automotive Industry : Main Features and Trends.", International Journal of Technology Learning, Innovation and Development, 2(1/2), pp.7–24.
Sturgeon, T. J., Van Biesebroeck, J. and Gereffi, G. (2008) "Value Chains, Networks and Clusters: Reframing the Global Automotive Industry.", Journal of Economic Geography, 8(3), pp.297–321.
Thun, E. (2006) Changing Lanes in China: Foreign Direct Investment, Local Governments, and Auto Sector Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Thuy, N. B. (2008) "Industrial Policy as Determinant of Localization: the Case of Vietnamese Automobile Industry.", Vietnam Development Forum Working Papers, Working Paper 0810.
Tsuji, M., and Quan, W. (2005) "Chinese Automotive and Parts Industries.". In: Kuchichi, A., amd Tsuji, M. (eds) Industrial Clusters in Asia. Basingstone New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Wad, P. (2008) "The development of automotive parts suppliers in Korea and Malaysia: A global value chain perspective.", Asia Pacific Business Review, 14(1), pp

56. Websites Automotivenews.com OICA.net Unctad.org WTO.org
Businessinsider.com
Unrae.it
UNCOMTRADE.COM