1. Journal Topic: Opinion Poll Cartoon
Task: What is the message of this political cartoon?

2. Cornell Notes: Unit: Political Process Topic: Measuring Public Opinion
Guiding Question: How is public opinion measured? What are the characteristics of a valid public opinion poll?

3. I. Public Opinion
Definition: Those attitudes held by a significant number of persons on matters of government and politics.

4. II. Methods for Measuring Public Opinion
A. Election Results—When a candidate is elected with a sizable majority, some say he has a mandate (public endorsement) to implement public policy positions.
B. Interest Group Activity—Membership in certain groups, participation, and activity.
C. Media Coverage—Sometimes the popularity of an issue or position can be gauged by the amount of media coverage. However, the age old question always arises: “Does the media mold public opinion or mirror it?”
D. Personal Contacts with People—Example: Congressional mail.
E. Public Opinion Polls—Devices used to measure public opinion by conducting surveys and asking questions.

5. III. Scientific Polling
A. Straw Polls are non-scientific polls which require people to call in or vote in with responses. You often see these types of polls on cable news programs or websites.
B. Scientific Polls are methodically organized polls designed to gauge public opinion.

6. Scientific Polling Methodology
1. Scientific Polls involve first identifying a population of people to be surveyed called a “universe.”
2. Identify a “quota sample,” which is the number of people to be questioned in the sample. To produce a margin of error of +/- 3 to four percent at least 1000 to 2500 people need to be surveyed.
3. Develop objective questions that are clear and not loaded. Solid questions have the following characteristics:
Clarity—The respondent clearly understand what is asked.
Objectivity—They are not loaded or designed to elicit a specific response. Often times there are multiple choices.

7. IV. Characteristics of Valid Opinion Polls
1. Clarity
2. Objectivity—not loaded or skewed to illicit a specific response.
3. Large enough sample of opinions to be scientifically valid--between 1000 and The margin of error should also be presented. Example:

8. Critical Reading: “The Problem With Polls”
1. Number the paragraphs.
2. Read the article once to get a general understanding.
3. Read the article a second time underlining the main points and circling critical names or data.
4. Write a ½ page summary of the author’s main points.

9. President Elect Trump’s Transition Readings
1. Read the Washington Post Article, “President-elect Donald Trump is About to Learn the Nation’s Deep Secrets.”
2. Read the Washington Post Article, “To Do Lists for an Unprepared President.”
Bonus Option: Write an ½ page summary of each. (20 Points Total)

10. Journal Topic: Why the Polls Were So Wrong
Task: Describe the most significant factor you think was responsible for the inaccurate polling data for the Presidential election.
Read these articles first:
“4 Possible Reasons The Polls Got It So Wrong This Year” –NPR Website
“Why the Polls Were Wrong” –US News and World Report Website

11. Theories….
NPR
National Polls Weren’t that far off—3.2 compared with .5/but numbers were off in all the swing states
Some people don’t answer the phone/possible Trump voters not answering the phone
Some people lied….Didn’t want to admit to voting for Trump
Hard to capture enthusiasm in voting—in other words who will actually turn out and vote
US News and World Report
More people turned out to vote who don’t usually vote such as poor white men who were much more likely to vote for trump
The people who voted for Trump are also typically less likely to answer polls
Some of the polling data was acquired before the Comey announcement about Clinton’s s…..This may have caused people to change their minds at the last minute.

12. Government in the News Bonus Option
Task: Find one article in the Washington Post and Write a ½ page summary. Be sure to include the author and title.