1. CHAPTER 8 Estimating with Confidence
8.2
Estimating a Population Proportion

2. Estimating a Population Proportion
STATE and CHECK the Random, 10%, and Large Counts conditions for constructing a confidence interval for a population proportion.
DETERMINE critical values for calculating a C % confidence interval for a population proportion using a table or technology.
CONSTRUCT and INTERPRET a confidence interval for a population proportion.
DETERMINE the sample size required to obtain a C % confidence interval for a population proportion with a specified margin of error.

3. Activity: The Beads
Your teacher has a container full of different colored beads. Your goal is to estimate the actual proportion of red beads in the container.
Form teams of 3 or 4 students.
Determine how to use a cup to get a simple random sample of beads from the container.
Each team is to collect one SRS of beads.
Determine a point estimate for the unknown population proportion.
Find a 95% confidence interval for the parameter p. Consider any conditions that are required for the methods you use.
Compare your results with the other teams in the class.

4. Conditions for Estimating p
Suppose one SRS of beads resulted in 107 red beads and 144 beads of another color. The point estimate for the unknown proportion p of red beads in the population would be How can we use this information to find a confidence interval for p?

5. Conditions for Estimating p
Before constructing a confidence interval for p, you should check some important conditions
Conditions for Constructing a Confidence Interval About a Proportion
Random: The data come from a well-designed random sample or randomized experiment.
10%: When sampling without replacement, check
that
• Large Counts: Both are at least 10.

6. E – Book
Pg. 494
This illustrates what you will have to check and write down to make sure that the Normal Conditions are met! Again, it is like copy paste with some variations.

7. Check our understanding:
An AP Statistics class at a large high school conducts a survey. They ask the first 100 students to arrive at school one morning whether or not they slept at least 8 hours the night before. Only 17 students said ‘yes.’
Solution:
Random?
Answer:
Asking the first 100 students who arrive sounds like what type of sampling?
Convenience sampling
Therefore, this is not Random.

8. Check our understanding

9. Check our understanding continued:
A quality control inspector takes a random sample of 25 bags of potato chips from the thousands of bags filled in an hour. Of the bags selected, 3 had too much salts.
Answer:
Random:
Met because the inspector chose an SRS of bags.
10%
Met because the sample of 25 is less than 10% of the thousands of bags filled in an hour.
Large Counts:
Not met because there were only 3 successes, which is less than 10.

10. Additional Practice: The pennies
Mrs. Quinn’s class wants to construct a confidence interval for the proportion p of pennies more than 10 years old in their collection. Their sample had 57 pennies that were more than 10 years old and 45 pennies that were at most 10 years old.
Problem: Check that the conditions for constructing a confidence interval for p are met.

11. Solutions:

12. Constructing a Confidence Interval for p
We can use the general formula from Section 8.1 to construct a confidence interval for an unknown population proportion p:
When the standard deviation of a statistic is estimated from data, the results is called the standard error of the statistic.

13. Finding a Critical Value
How do we find the critical value for our confidence interval? If the Large Counts condition is met, we can use a Normal curve. To find a level C confidence interval, we need to catch the central area C under the standard Normal curve.
To find a 95% confidence interval, we use a critical value of 2 based on the rule.
Using Table A or a calculator, we can get a more accurate critical value.
Note, the critical value z* is actually 1.96 for a 95% confidence level.

14. Example: Finding a Critical Value
Use Table A to find the critical value z* for an 80% confidence interval. Assume that the Large Counts condition is met.
Since we want to capture the central 80% of the standard Normal distribution, we leave out 20%, or 10% in each tail.
Search Table A to find the point z* with area 0.1 to its left.
The closest entry is z = – 1.28. z
.07
.08
.09
– 1.3
.0853
.0838
.0823
– 1.2
.1020
.1003
.0985
– 1.1
.1210
.1190
.1170
So, the critical value z* for an 80% confidence interval is z* = 1.28.

15. Practice 91% confidence interval Solution:
invNorm((1-0.91)/2, mean = 0, s.d. = 1) = 1.70
96% confidence
invNorm ((1-0.96)/2, mean = 0 and s.d.= 1) =

16. One-Sample z Interval for a Population Proportion
Once we find the critical value z*, our confidence interval for the population proportion p is
One-Sample z Interval for a Population Proportion
When the conditions are met, a C% confidence interval for the unknown proportion p is
where z* is the critical value for the standard Normal curve with
C% of its area between −z* and z*.

17. One-Sample z Interval for a Population Proportion
Suppose you took an SRS of beads from the container and got 107 red beads and 144 white beads. Calculate and interpret a 90% confidence interval for the proportion of red beads in the container. Your teacher claims 50% of the beads are red. Use your interval to comment on this claim. z
.03
.04
.05
– 1.7
.0418
.0409
.0401
– 1.6
.0516
.0505
.0495
– 1.5
.0630
.0618
.0606
We checked the conditions earlier.
Sample proportion = 107/251 = 0.426
For a 90% confidence level, z* = 1.645
We are 90% confident that the interval from to captures the true proportion of red beads in the container.
Since this interval gives a range of plausible values for p and since 0.5 is not contained in the interval, we have reason to doubt the claim.

18. Practice:
Handout

19. From point A to point B
E-book pg. 500 teens say sex can wait.

20. The Four Step Process
We can use the familiar four-step process whenever a problem asks us to construct and interpret a confidence interval.
Confidence Intervals: A Four-Step Process
State: What parameter do you want to estimate, and at what confidence level?
Plan: Identify the appropriate inference method. Check conditions.
Do: If the conditions are met, perform calculations.
Conclude: Interpret your interval in the context of the problem.

21. Practice: Page 498: Alternate Example The pennies
Problem: Mrs. Quinn’s class took an SRS of 102 pennies and discovered that 57 of the pennies were more than 10 years old.
(a) Calculate and interpret a 99% confidence interval for p = the true proportion of pennies from the collection that are more than 10 years old. (Use your graphing calculator)
(b) Is it plausible that exactly 60% of all the pennies in the collection are more than 10 years old? Explain.

22. Practice solutions:

23. Practice:
In her first-grade social studies class, Jessica learned that 70% of the Earth’s surface was covered in water. She wondered if this was really true and asked her dad for help. To investigate, he tossed an inflatable globe to her 50 times, being careful to spin the globe each time. When she caught it, he recorded where her right index finger was pointing. In 50 tosses, her finger was pointing to water 33 times. Construct and interpret a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of the Earth’s surface that is covered in water.

24. Solution:

25. Solutions continued
Conclude: We are 95% confident that the interval from to captures the true proportion of the Earth’s surface that is covered in water. This is consistent with the claim that 70% of the Earth’s surface is covered in water, because 0.70 is one of the plausible values in the interval.

26. Choosing the Sample Size
In planning a study, we may want to choose a sample size that allows us to estimate a population proportion within a given margin of error.
The margin of error (ME) in the confidence interval for p is
z* is the standard Normal critical value for the level of confidence we want.

27. Choosing the Sample Size
In planning a study, we may want to choose a sample size that allows us to estimate a population proportion within a given margin of error.
Calculating a Confidence Interval
To determine the sample size n that will yield a level C confidence interval for a population proportion p with a maximum margin of error ME, solve the following inequality for n:

28. Example: Determining sample size
A company has received complaints about its customer service. The managers intend to hire a consultant to carry out a survey of customers. Before contacting the consultant, the company president wants some idea of the sample size that she will be required to pay for. One critical question is the degree of satisfaction with the company’s customer service, measured on a five-point scale.
The president wants to estimate the proportion p of customers who are satisfied (that is, who choose either “satisfied” or “very satisfied,” the two highest levels on the five-point scale).
She decides that she wants the estimate to be within 3% (0.03) at a 95% confidence level.
How large a sample is needed?
Try Exercise 39

29. Example: Determining sample size
Problem: Determine the sample size needed to estimate p within 0.03 with 95% confidence.
The critical value for 95% confidence is z* = 1.96.
We have no idea about the true proportion p of satisfied customers, so we decide to use p-hat = 0.5 as our guess.
Because the company president wants a margin of error of no more than 0.03, we need to solve the equation:
margin of error < 0.03
Try Exercise 39

30. Example: Determining sample size
Because the company president wants a margin of error of no more than 0.03, we need to solve the equation
Multiply both sides by square root n and divide both sides by 0.03.
Square both sides.
Try Exercise 39
We round up to 1068 respondents to ensure that the margin of error is no more than 3%.

31. Practice:
Suppose that you want to estimate p = the true proportion of students at your school who have a tattoo with 95% confidence and a margin of error of no more than 0.10.
Problem: Determine how many students should be surveyed to estimate p within 0.10 with 95% confidence.

32. Practice Solutions:

33. Estimating a Population Proportion
STATE and CHECK the Random, 10%, and Large Counts conditions for constructing a confidence interval for a population proportion.
DETERMINE critical values for calculating a C % confidence interval for a population proportion using a table or technology.
CONSTRUCT and INTERPRET a confidence interval for a population proportion.
DETERMINE the sample size required to obtain a C % confidence interval for a population proportion with a specified margin of error.