1. Food Security and Agricultural Production in Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries: 10 years after the Uruguay Round
Prabhu Pingali and Randy Stringer
Agricultural and Development Economics Division
FAO, United Nations, Rome
Capri Conference
June 2003

2. What are the Post Uruguay Round food security trends in the LIFDCs?
Food Prices
Food Imports
Food Aid
Overall Food Security

3. Low-income food-deficit countries
Classification
LIFDC com dep - 23 countries Single commodity dependent exporters
LIFDC others – 49 countries Non commodity dependent countries
China
India

4. Dimensions of Food Security
Availability
Access
Stability
Domestic production
Import capacity
Food aid
Income distribution / Poverty
Markets and infrastructure capacity
Weather variability
Price variability
Complex emergencies

5. Food Security Status - Availability
Per capita food consumption
Kcal/cap/day
% change in per capita food consumption
88/91 to 99/ /98 to 99/01
LIFDC com dep
2314
2.7
1.7
LIFDC others
2285
3.0
3.1
China
2972 12
0.8
India
2493
7.6
1.2
Source: Calculations based on FAO data

6. Food Security Status - Availability
Food Imports
Import Capacity =
Exports - Debt
Before UR
After UR
LIFDC com dep
34.1%
27.8%
LIFDC others
26.0%
23.2%
China
5.9%
1.2%
India
3.5%
2.4%
Source: Calculations based on FAO data

7. Food Security Status - Availability
High dependence on agricultural exports
export earnings as % of merchandise exports
Source: FAO

8. Food Security Status - Availability
Trends in real cereal prices (1982 = 100)
Source: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2002, CD-Rom

9. Food Security Status - Availability
Food prices and food aid
Source: FAO

10. Food Security Status - Access
Incidence of undernourishment
LIFDC com dep
36%
106 million persons
LIFDC others
22%
249 million persons
China 9%
119 million persons
India
24%
233 million persons
Source: Calculations based on FAO data

11. Food Security Status - Access
Millions of persons in poverty (US$1/day)
Source: Calculations based on FAO data

12. Food Security Status - Access
Percentage undernourished by trade status
Source: Calculations based on FAO data

13. Food Security Status - Stability
Measures of consumption stability
Coefficient of variation of food consumption
Probability of shortfall in consumption below 95% of trend for
LIFDC com dep
8.5
22%
LIFDC others
5.2
14.5%
China
2.2 1%
India
3.6 8%
Source: Calculations based on FAO data

14. Common Arguments for Special Treatment
Trade liberalisation damages food security
Agriculture plays a special role in developing countries
Low income country agricultural sectors lack the necessary institutional and capital support
Food security is an important development need
Low income producers in developing countries are too vulnerable to international price variations
Special protection is justified because of the asymmetry of support