1. The role of natural gas in energy transition
Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić
Power Engineering and Energy Management Chair
Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture
University of Zagreb, Croatia
26th FORUM: Energy Day in Croatia, Zagreb

2. LCOE – various technologies

3. Power sector developments
Global installed generation capacity net change, 2016 [GW]
Source: Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,

4. Wind share in electricity demand 2015/16
Denmark – 42%
Ireland16 – 27% Curaçao, Portugal16 – 25%
Uruguay16 – 23% C. Verde, Cy.16, Spain – 20%
Nicaragua – 19% Aruba, Germany16 – 16%
Costa Rica, Romania – 13% Sweden, UK16 – 12%
Lithuania16 – 11% Austria16, EU16 – 10%
Estonia, India16, Netherlands16 – 9%
Brazil16, Greece16, Poland16, Turkey16 – 7%
Austria, Belgium16, Canada16, Italy16, Morocco, US16 – 6%
Australia16, Croatia, Honduras, N. Zealand – 5%
Bulgaria16, China16, Finland16, France16, Mex.16, Tunis., World – 4%
Chile16, Jamaica14 – 3%
Dominican R, Hungary, Latvia, Lux., Macedonia, Norway16 – 2%
Czechia, Egypt, Japan, Ukraine – 1%
hard easy

5. Solar share in electricity demand 2016
PV revolution
Solar share in electricity demand 2016
Honduras – 10%
Italy – 9%
Germany, Greece – 7%
Cyprus, EU, Belgium, Bulgaria – 4%
Australia, Czech Rep., Japan, Romania, Spain, UK – 3%
World, Denmark, France, Slovakia, Slovenia – 2%
Austria, China, Malta, Netherlands, Pakistan, Portugal, US – 1%
Croatia, Hungary, India, Lux. – 0.5%

6. Wind and solar: Coal vs. gas?

7. Electricity generation by fuel EU28

8. How to increase penetration of renewables in energy system?
More grid capacity
Cycling of thermal power plants
Power exchanges
Demand response and integration of power, heating, cooling, transport and water systems – smart energy systems
Energy storage

9. Cycling of thermal power plants

10. Electricity production in Germany in week 18 2016

11. Consequences of market liberalisation:
Markets and RES
Consequences of market liberalisation:
Demission of base load
The importance of balancing power (gas, hydro)
Cycling of old coal power plants (4000 hours by 2020)
Market arbitrage and demand response (power-to-heat, power-to-water, e-mobility, power-to-efuels)

12. Power to heat

13. Electromobility Demand management
Only personal cars and short distance light utility vehicles, PHEV and BEV sold in 2016 (
If RESe 80% reduction of primary energy
Fast charging 70 kW – huge problem if left uncontrolled, ex AT, 4 mln cars arrives home, plugs in – 280 GW (14 GW installed cap)
Smart charging – market based, smoothing the demand

14. viable
CEEP
not viable

15. Fuel switch? UK vs NL coal vs CCGT switching boundaries

16. EU ETS CO2 pricing will go nowhere before 2025
Fuel switch
EU ETS CO2 pricing will go nowhere before 2025
CO2 tax coming in non-coal countries, but hard to do in DE, PL
Gas should go under 3 USD/MMBTU (9 EUR/MWh)
Is that possible? Better say what has to be done to make it happen

17. How to reduce the gas price?
LNG
LNG
LNG?

18. How to reduce the gas price?
SEE gas hub?
Market coupling?
More exploration?

19. Any other market for gas?
Heating goes electric or district heating, so gas has transitional future only through cogeneration

20. Any other market for gas?
Heating goes electric or district heating, so gas has transitional future only through cogeneration
Combined cycle 100 fuel
45 units excess heat +
55 units electricity -> HPCOP=6 2DHC = 330 units heat
430 units heat * losses …
Gas heating 100 fuel -> 100 units heat * losses

21. Any other market for gas?
Transport (of personal cars and light duty vehicles) goes electric
Planes go biofuels
Ships go LNG?
Heavy duty vehicles? Maybe …

22. Wind and solar are coming, but difficult to integrate
Conclusions
Wind and solar are coming, but difficult to integrate
Demission of base load. Natural gas and hydro critical for transition. Gas transition mainly in cogeneration
Gas price has to go down … or carbon up
Integration of power, heating, cooling, water and transport system necessary
Smart energy systems – cheap and simple
Great time for engineers!

23. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!