1. World Health Threats

2. AIM: why do different stages of the DTM face different health concerns?
DO NOW: Predict which kinds of diseases would be most prevalent for each stage of the DTM
Learning Objectives
The students will…
Evaluate the causes behind death in different global regions
Compare the ETM to the DTM

3. Key Terms
Epidemic Transition Model: distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic transition
Pandemic: disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a very high proportion of the pop

4. Stage 1: Pestilence and famine
Infectious/Parasitic diseases=main causes of death
Ex: Black Plague/Bubonic Plague in the 1300s
1/2 Europe’s population dies

5. Q: What type(s) of diffusion?
Hearth: Kyrgyzstan
First it diffused to an Italian trading post when a Tartar army attacked
Then, it diffused to Europe when Italians fled carrying rat infested ships
In Europe it spread from the coast to inland towns, and then to rural areas

6. Stage 2: Receding Pandemics
Improved sanitation, nutrition, and medicine lead to a reduction in epidemics; overall death rates plummet.
Industrial Revolution-> initially creates more death among the poor. Why?

7. Dr. Snow Maps Cholera

8. Stage 2: Receding pandemics
EPIDEMIOLOGY makes its rise in Stage 2; doctors work to understand the actual causes and cures for diseases.

9. Stage 2: receding pandemics
DEVELOPMENT has much to do with movement into Stage 2.
As countries mature, they build life-saving INFRASTRUCTURE, like hospitals and sewers.

10. Stage 3: Degenerative/Human Created Diseases
Decrease in infectious deaths; increase in chronic disorders (usually from aging).
Cardiovascular diseases like heart attacks
Cancer

11. Stage 3: degenerative/human created diseases
Infant mortality drops dramatically in Stage 2, so by Stage 3 women are starting to have less babies (more will survive until adulthood).

12. Stage 4: delayed degenerative disease
Major causes of death (cancer/ cardiovascular diseases) persist, but people live longer due to medical advancements
EX: cancer treatments

13. Stage 4: delayed degenerative disease
People are surviving longer even with deadly conditions, leading to a GREYING population.

14. How will an aging population affect Italy in 20-30 years?

15. Stage 5: reemergence of infectious/parasitic diseases
Controversial!
Why would infectious/parasitic diseases resurface in the most developed countries?

16. 1. Disease evolution
Infectious disease microbes evolve and establish RESISTANCE to drugs like antibiotics and other treatments.

18. 2. Poverty
Though development in Stage 5 countries is high, it is still uneven.
Infectious diseases are more prevalent in poor areas and can then spread to wealthier areas

19. 3. Globalization
Advancements in modes of transportation, especially air travel, makes it easier for an individual infected in one place to rapidly transmit disease elsewhere.

20. AIDS is most prevalent in cities with large international airports (#s are int’l arrivals)

21. H1n1 Swine flu: matched airline routes

22. 4. Anti-Vaccine movement
CAUSE: ANTI-VACCINE MOVEMENT

23. “I would advise any new parent to roll their child on the floor of the New York subway” –Chris Mason, geneticist at Cornell

24. Gov Expenditures on healthcare
More than 15 percent of total government expenditures in Europe and North America.
Less than 5 percent in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

26. Public service available at little or no cost.
Expenditures in MDCs
Public service available at little or no cost.
Government pays more than 70 percent of individuals’ health-care costs in most European countries.

27. All on wages significantly lower than developed world!
Expenditures in LDCs
Private individuals must pay more than half of the cost of health care, in many places more than 70%.
All on wages significantly lower than developed world!

29. This is why we have a higher IMR than other MDCs
Expenditures in the U.S.
Private individuals are required to pay about 55 percent of health care costs- more closely resembling a developing country.
This is why we have a higher IMR than other MDCs

30. AIM: How do Malthus and Boesrup compare in terms of population outlook?
Do Now: What is the difference between physiological and agricultural density?
HW: Study for Chapter 2 Quiz Tomorrow
Learning Objectives: The Students Will
Compare and contrast Malthus and Boesrup’s views on population
Evaluate the accuracy of Neo-Malthusians

31. Is a Population crisis likely?

32. Pessimistic Approaches: Malthus
Thomas Malthus ( )
Wrote “An essay on the Principle of Population” in 1798 which described a forthcoming population catastrophe
World population was then 1 billion -> now 7 billion

33. Malthus Core Principles
Food is essential for life
Population increases faster than food supply
Therefore Malthus predicted that population would grow until it reached the limit of food supply, then there would be widespread poverty and famine.

34. Malthus Recognized that
Population, if left unchecked, will grow geometrically:
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32
Whereas food supply increases arithmetically as the amount of land is finite:
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

36. Malthusian Checks
Malthus stated that once population reached this point, checks would come into play to readdress the balance between population and resources:
1. positive checks – increased levels of misery (war, famine and disease)
2. preventative checks – celibacy, later marriage etc

37. Evidence to support Malthus:
There has been a population explosion
Repeated wars & famines in Sahel region of Africa suggest population growth has outstripped food supply
FAO says that more than 800m people are chronically malnourished
UN say that by billion people will be living in areas that cannot provide enough water for basic needs.

38. Critics say that Malthus did not allow for:
the development of new technology
The opening of new land for cultivation mainly in LDCs
The development of irrigation systems which have allowed for increased yields
The Green Revolution – widespread introduction of high-yield crop varieties, pesticides, fertilizers etc
The slow down in population growth as countries develop economically and progress to the latter stages of the DTM - Demographic Transition Model.

39. Neo-malthusians Neo = new
Accelerated population growth in LDCs since the 1950s renewed Malthusian fears
Food sustainability issues will occur when we reach 10 billion
Increasing per capita demand as countries developing
Natural resource depletion
RESULT: sudden & uncontrollable decline in population and industrial capacity.

40. Optimistic approach: boserup
Ester Boserup ( )
Wrote “The Conditions of
Agricultural Growth” in 1965
Opposite of Malthus
People have resources of knowledge and technology to increase food supply as necessary
POSSIBILISM

41. Boesrups’ Main Points
Environments have limits that restrict population
But these limits can be changed using technologies
Population growth is the trigger for innovation to allow food supply to increase
e.g. irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seed quality, tools, techniques etc

42. Evidence which supports boserup
Increasing intensity of shifting cultivation
Move from ‘slash and burn’ practices to using irrigation in rural areas with higher population densities
The Green Revolution – widespread introduction of high-yielding varieties, pesticides etc
Hugely increased yields allowed more people to be fed
GMOs – Genetically Modified Organisms

43. Boserup critiques
Boserup admits that overpopulation can lead to unsuitable farming practices which may degrade the land
E.g. population pressure as one of the reasons for desertification in the Sahel region

44. AIM: How can we write more effective FRQs?
Do Now: What did Malthus believe would happen if the population continued to grow unchecked?
Learning Objectives
Demonstrate mastery of population topics through a summative assessment
Assess FRQs using a College Board Rubric to understand how to attain a high score on the AP exam
Compare and contrast sample FRQs