1. climate change impact
CLIMATE CHANGE - HERE
October 30, 2008

2. Reminder..
high degree of probability (98%) that human activities have caused a substantial net warming influence on climate since 1750
global surface air temperature increased from 1850 to by 0.76ºC.
linear warming trend over the last 50 years is recorded by 0.13ºC per decade
Plus, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves, a decrease in the frequency and duration of frosts, and an increase in extreme events frequency and intensity in many parts of the world.
recent studies found that the Arab region experienced an uneven increase in surface air temperature ranging from 0.2 to 2.0ºC that occurred from 1970 to 2004
climate change impact, AFED

3. Tomorrow… For the next 20 years: A warming of about 0.2 C
Even IF the [ ] of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at 2000 year levels, another warming of 0.1 C / decade would be expected
climate change impact

4. GHGs emissions (2000) 33 thousand Tg (teragram)
Arab: 4.2% of total world emissions
KSA
Egypt
Algeria
North America 37.1 South America 22.9 Africa (non-Arab) 22.8 Central America and Caribbean 5.4 Arab countries 4.2 Asia (non-Arab) 3.6 Europe 2.2 Oceania 1.7
climate change impact

5. Impact high…
Semi-arid and arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change
If temperature gets higher
If precipitation gets lower
 pressure on natural and physical systems would be intensified
climate change impact

6. The Arab region will…
Face an increase of 2 to 5.5 C in surface temperature by 2100
Face a decrease in precipitation from 0 to 20%
 shorter winters
 dryer and hotter summers
 higher rate of heat waves
 higher level of weather variability
 more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events
climate change impact

7. Let’s talk details:
Sea Level Rise
climate change impact

8. Impact of Sea-Level Rise
Important consequence of climate change and a serious global threat
Rate of sea level rise was observed to be 1.8 mm per year from , and higher from (3.1 mm)
Total 20th century rise: 0.17 m
Continued growth of GHG  SLR of 1 to 3 m + very quick breakup of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets = 5 m SLR
Nature of impacts of SLR changes from place-to-place and from country-to-country. Why?
Highest exposure: river deltas. Low-lying coastal urban areas. Small islands
Why? Elevation of the land. Currently occurring geological land subsidence, reflecting that certain settings are more vulnerable than others
Plus
Socioeconomic factors – including human responses to CC – are also considered
climate change impact

9. UN-Habitat's State of the World's Cities 2008/09
During the 1900s, sea levels rose by an estimated 17cm; global mean projections for sea level rise between 1990 and 2080 range from 22cm to 34cm, according to the UN-Habitat researchers. The report points out that by 2070, urban populations in river delta cities, such as Dhaka, Kolkata (India), Yangon (Myanmar), and Hai Phong (on the coast near Hanoi in Vietnam), which already experience a high risk of flooding, will join the group of populations most exposed to this danger. Port cities in Bangladesh, China, Thailand, Vietnam, and India will have joined the ranks of cities whose assets are most at risk. African coastal cities that could be severely be affected by rising sea levels include Abidjan (Cote d'Ivoire), Accra (Ghana), Alexandria (Egypt), Algiers (Algeria), Cape Town (South Africa), Casablanca (Morocco), Dakar (Senegal), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Djibouti (Djibouti), Durban (South Africa), Freetown (Sierra Leone), Lagos (Nigeria), Libreville (Gabon), Lome (Togo), Luanda (Angola), Maputo (Mozambique), Mombasa (Kenya), Port Louis (Mauritius), and Tunis (Tunisia).
climate change impact

10. climate change impact

11. Impact of SLR - Egypt A 1 m SLR A 0.5 m SLR 6 million people
12 to 15% of agricultural land in the Nile Delta
A 0.5 m SLR
A loss of more than 90% of the governorates under risk
Loss of 65% in industrial sector
Loss of 55% in tourism sector
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12. Impact of SLR Qatar Egypt UAE and Tunisia Urban areas also…
13% land loss with 5 m rise
Egypt
10% of pop impacted with 1 m rise
20% - 5 m rise
UAE and Tunisia
1 m – 5% of pop
Urban areas also…
5% in Egypt, Libya, UAE, and Tunisia with 1 m SLR
6 to 7 % with 2 m SLR
10% with 5 m SLR
High uncertainty
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13. Impact on freshwater sources
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14. The Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture revealed that one in three people are already facing water shortages (2007). Around 1.2 billion people, or almost one-fifth of the world's population, live in areas of physical scarcity, while another 1.6 billion people, or almost one quarter of the world's population, face economic water shortage (where countries lack the necessary infrastructure to take water from rivers and aquifers); nearly all of which are in the developing countries.
climate change impact

15. There are four main factors aggravating water scarcity:
* Population growth: in the last century, world population has tripled. It is expected to rise from the present 6.5 billion to 8.9 billion by Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century, and, although there is no global water scarcity as such, an increasing number of regions are chronically short of water.
* Increased urbanization will focus on the demand for water among an ever more concentrated population. Asian cities alone are expected to grow by 1 billion people in the next 20 years.
* High level of consumption: as the world becomes more developed, the amount of domestic water that each person uses is expected to rise significantly.
* Climate change will shrink the resources of freshwater.
climate change impact

16. Water and Climate Change
(1) The distribution of precipitation in space and time is very uneven, leading to tremendous temporal variability in water resources If all the freshwater on the planet were divided equally among the global population, there would be to m3 of water available for everyone, every year.
(2) the rate of evaporation varies a great deal, depending on temperature and relative humidity, which impact the amount of water available to replenish groundwater supplies.
The combination of shorter duration but more intense rainfall (meaning more runoff and less infiltration) combined with increased evapotranspiration (the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration from the earth's land surface to atmosphere.) and increased irrigation is expected to lead to groundwater depletion.
Water scarcity is expected to become an even more important problem than it is today. There are several reasons for this.
First, the distribution of precipitation in space and time is very uneven, leading to tremendous temporal variability in water resources worldwide (Oki et al., 2006). For example, the Atacama Desert in Chile receives imperceptible annual quantities of rainfall whereas Mawsynram, Assam, India receives over 450 inches annually. If all the freshwater on the planet were divided equally among the global population, there would be to m3 of water available for everyone, every year.
Second, the rate of evaporation varies a great deal, depending on temperature and relative humidity, which impact the amount of water available to replenish groundwater supplies.
The combination of shorter duration but more intense rainfall (meaning more runoff and less infiltration) combined with increased evapotranspiration (the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration from the earth's land surface to atmosphere.) and increased irrigation is expected to lead to groundwater depletion.
climate change impact

17. Hydrological cycle climate change impact
The hydrologic cycle begins with evaporation from the surface of the ocean or land, continues as air carries the water vapor to locations where it forms clouds and eventually precipitates out. It then continues when the precipitation is either absorbed into the ground or runs off to the ocean, ready to begin the cycle over again in an endless loop. The amount of time needed for groundwater to recharge can vary with the amount or intensity of precipitation.
Hydrological cycle
climate change impact

18. Key changes to the hydrological cycle
… associated with an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting changes in climate include: * Changes in the seasonal distribution and amount of precipitation * An increase in precipitation intensity under most situations * Changes in the balance between snow and rain * Increased evapotranspiration and a reduction in soil moisture * Changes in vegetation cover resulting from changes in temperature and precipitation * Consequent changes in management of land resources * Accelerated melting glacial ice * Increases in fire risk in many areas * Increased coastal inundation and wetland loss from sea level rise * Effects of CO2 on plant physiology, leading to reduced transpiration and increased water use efficiency
The hydrologic cycle begins with evaporation from the surface of the ocean or land, continues as air carries the water vapor to locations where it forms clouds and eventually precipitates out. It then continues when the precipitation is either absorbed into the ground or runs off to the ocean, ready to begin the cycle over again in an endless loop. The amount of time needed for groundwater to recharge can vary with the amount or intensity of precipitation.
According to Pr. Andrew Goudie of Oxford University, key changes to the hydrological cycle associated with an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting changes in climate include:
* Changes in the seasonal distribution and amount of precipitation
* An increase in precipitation intensity under most situations
* Changes in the balance between snow and rain
* Increased evapotranspiration and a reduction in soil moisture
* Changes in vegetation cover resulting from changes in temperature and precipitation
* Consequent changes in management of land resources
* Accelerated melting glacial ice
* Increases in fire risk in many areas
* Increased coastal inundation and wetland loss from sea level rise
* Effects of CO2 on plant physiology, leading to reduced transpiration and increased water use efficiency
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19. Status of freshwater here
Reminder: most of the Arab countries are located in arid and semi-arid regions; low and limited water resources + high evaporation
Total water resources = total renewable ground water + internal surface water resources + external surface water resources
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20. Water resources here Iraq, Sudan and Egypt
Highest annual water resources ( > 50 billion m3/yr)
More than 50% of their surface resources are external
Algeria, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Somalia, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen
Between 5 to 30 billion m3/yr
Rest
< 5 billion m3/year
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21. rainfall Varied Lebanon and Syria: average 600 and 300 mm/yr
Move N and E to Morocco and Tunisia – decreases to 300 mm/yr
North Africa and Arab Peninsula – 130 mm/yr
Rest – average – 290 mm/yr
Kuwait: poorest water resources
Egypt – second lowest
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22. ? How will sea-level rise impact freshwater?
How will CC conditions impact watersheds?
Due to CC and population, FAO projects that Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia – severe water shortages by 2050
Water demand increasing
Water supply decreasing
Plus problems of accessibility of water
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23. First order impacts… Mediterranean hydrological systems Egypt
Wetter winters
Dryer and hotter summers
Increase in evaporation from water bodies…
Increase Evapotranspiration from crops
Egypt
Increase the potential irrigation demand by 6 to 16% by 2100
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24. Drought
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25. Impact of increasing drought
One of the serious water related disasters threatening the Arab region for both current and future time scales
What is drought?
“a temporary reduction in water or moisture availability significantly below the normal or expected amount for specified period” (climatic viewpoint)
“a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of precipitation to cause a serious hydrological imbalance, carrying connotation for moisture deficiency with respect to [hu]man’s usage of water” (hydrological viewpoint)
climate change impact

26. Droughts… Impact rain-fed agricultural production
Impact water supply for domestic, industrial, and agricultural purposes
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27. Drought frequency
Increased during the last 20 to 40 years in Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Syria
Of the 22 drought years in the 20th century, 10 occurred in the last 20 years, and three were successive (1999, 2000, 2001) in Morocco
Recent droughts in Jordan and Syria worst ever recorded
Varying conditions of water shortage in Lebanon in the last 10 years
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28. But not just droughts
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29. Warmer climate Increase risk of both droughts AND floods
Drought affected areas will (probably) increase
Extreme precipitation events likely to increase in frequency and intensity  more flood risk
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30. Yemen: drought
SANAA, 2 September 2008 (IRIN) - Hundreds of families (totalling about 2,000 people) in the southern governorate of Abyan have begun to leave their homes due to severe drought in their mountain villages
Sirar villages are arid, barren and mountainous. Any rain that does fall quickly runs off down the steep valley sides, as there are no dams in the area to harvest rainwater.
people had installed small concrete tanks on their houses to harvest rainwater, but these had remained dry because of the lack of rain
The drought has caused damage to the livestock, beehives and farms on which local people are heavily dependent for their livelihoods.
climate change impact

31. Yemen
Yemen Times: “The climate changes during the last few years and especially this year is a real concern for Yemen, particularly if the frequency of precipitation events diminish, putting rainfall and agriculture in peril and lead to a catastrophic drought,” said Anwar Abdulaziz, head of the Climate Change Unit in the General Authority of Environment Preservation. "Every year the rain season starts at the beginning of March, and now Yemen is in the end of April and there is still no rain. This means that Yemen is truly affected by the climate changes," said Abdulaziz. Though his agency has yet to complete studies on exact drought percentage increase, he is sure that this year and the next year will be difficult for Yemen because of the lack of rain. According to the National Council for the Climate, there has been an increase in average temperatures in Sana’a over the last 20 years, though they do not have the exact percentage due to a lack of research. The expectation is that cities like Sana’a and Ibb will face cloudless skies and will cause more temperature rises, adds Abdulaziz.
climate change impact

32. Yemen: recent floods (October 2008)
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told reporters on 25 October that so far 41 people had died and another 31 had gone missing because of the floods. Media reports on 26 October put the death toll at 65.
Saleh said the floods had destroyed 1,700 houses and had inflicted extensive damage to infrastructure, particularly highways, bridges and telecommunications, electricity and water networks.
Sabri Salmeen, an editor of a local newspaper in Hadhramout, told IRIN that the floods were the worst in decades. "Between 20,000 and 25,000 people were displaced by floods in Hadhramout province alone. Their condition is very bad. No electricity and sewage pipes are blocked. Floods have swept farms, beehives, livestock and some stores," he said, adding that the displaced were sheltering with host families and in schools.
According to Salmeen, the historic mud-brick buildings of Shibam City, a UNESCO (UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) world heritage site, are in danger of collapsing. Many of its 20,000 residents had fled in the middle of the night only to return after the rains had subsided to find devastation.
According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), Yemen is prone to floods (particularly during the monsoon season), landslides and earthquakes. Water shortage is acute and chronic in most parts of the country.
In al-Mahra Governorate, floods have affected several coastal villages, sweeping dozens of fishing boats away and inundating hundreds of farms, the two main sources of income for the local population.
Salem Numair, secretary-general of al-Mahra's local council, told IRIN that 487 houses had been destroyed by the floods and hundreds of families displaced as a result in six coastal districts.
"Assessing the damage is ongoing. Preliminary reports show that 280 farms were damaged. Infrastructure was greatly damaged amid the electricity outage. Water networks were badly affected. Some new water projects [facilities] were also destroyed," he said.
Yemen: recent floods (October 2008)
Dubbed the 'Manhatten of the desert', Shibam's 2,000-year-old mud-brick buildings are in danger of collapsing after recent floods
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33. Human health
Sea-level rise will affect groundwater aquifers in coastal areas and flood low- lying areas, reducing freshwater availability. It is estimated that by 2030 the risk of diarrhoea will be up to 10 percent higher in some countries due to climate change. Greater migration as a result of water stress or increased food insecurity means that diseases will be transported to other regions, where they may or may not be able to survive, potentially exposing host communities to new diseases. "Policies at various levels and their implementation, however, do not reflect this principle," the authors noted. "Improved access to clean water can reduce diarrhoea and waterborne diseases by at least 25 percent; improved sanitation is accompanied by more than a 30 percent reduction in child mortality. This urgent global challenge is pragmatically achievable, politically feasible and ethically important." (IPCC)
climate change impact

34. Global events
1998
Hurricane Mitch dropped 6 feet of rain in Central America
Increased incidence of malaria, dengue, cholera & leptospirosis (infectious bacterial disease)
1999
Cyclone Orissa caused 10,000 death & million affected
Flood in Caracas, Venezuela killing 30,000 people
2000
Rain and hurricane inundated Mozambique, causing malaria incidence to increase 5 folds
2003
Summer heat wave in Europe killing thousands of people (27,000 more death in corresponding period the previous year, massive forest fires and melting 10% of the Alps ice.

35. Recent Climate-Related Extreme Events 2005
Unprecedented blistering summer heat
More than 200 cities with new record for high temperature
Sustained temperature of >38oC for 39 consecutive days, including a week above 43oC in Phoenix, Arizona
Hurricane Katrina, Rita and Wilma

36. Climate change and health: pathway from driving forces, through exposures to potential health impact.
Source: Climate Change and Human Health – Risks and Reponses. Summary (WHO, 2003)

37. Four main types of transmission cycle for infectious diseases
Source: Climate Change and Human Health – Risks and Reponses. Summary (WHO, 2003)

38. Biologic response to changes in climate
Global warming and wider fluctuation in weather help to spread diseases
Temperatures – affect growth, development and survival of microbes and the vectors
Weather affects the timing and intensity of disease outbreaks (McMichael et al, 2003)

39. Biologic response to changes in climate: Infectious diseases
Warmer environment and mosquitoes
Boost rate of reproduction
Increase the number of blood meal
Prolongs their breeding season
Shorten the maturation period of microbes they carry
Warmer winters – tick-borne lyme disease spreading northward in Sweden, US and Canada (Epstein, 2005)
Heavy downpours
Drive rodents from burrows: risk of zoonotic diseases
Create mosquito breeding sites
Faster fungal growth in houses
Flush pathogens and chemicals into waterways
Milwaukee’s cryptosporidiosis outbreak in 1993
Katrina’s flood: water-borne pathogens and toxins spread.

40. Using climate to predict infectious disease outbreaks
Generally accepted that climate plays a role in infectious disease transmission
Considerable on-going research activity identifying climate- epidemic links
Many research projects have demonstrated temporal link between climatic factors and variations in disease rates
Some are able to predict epidemics but the tests are very preliminary and based on limited data

41. Is climate change a serious threat to health?
The threat is unquestionable
However, the impact depends on:-
Where you live
Your age
Access to health care
Public health infrastructure
Adverse effects will generally occur in poor populations that have little capacity to adapt

42. Early warning system & preparedness
Most of the extreme climatic changes (e.g. heat wave, torrential rain, hurricane) can be predicted several days in advance
But how prepared are we to deal with the situation?
National Centre for Communicable Diseases (NCCD)