1. Trends & Pathways for STEM Major Aspirants:
A Look at National Data
Tanya Figueroa, Krystle P. Cobian, Sylvia Hurtado, & Kevin Eagan
Understanding Interventions
March 2017| San Antonio, Texas
Data are based on STEM Aspirants who started at Four-Year Colleges and Universities.

2. The Freshman Survey (TFS) 2016 Post-Baccalaureate Survey
Overview
The Freshman Survey (TFS)
2016 Post-Baccalaureate Survey
50-year trends on first-time, full-time freshmen who aspired to major in STEM at college entry
Profile of incoming freshmen who aspired to major in STEM at college entry during the 2015 school year
Predictors of remaining in STEM & graduate school/workforce readiness
2016 Post Baccalaureate Survey individual level factors that predict the tendency to remain in a STEM educational or career pathway 12 years after college entry
Predicting Post-Bacc Pathways: Used Longitudinal student data from 2004 TFS and 2016 Post-Baccalaureate Survey (PBS). All STEM aspirants began college in a four-year college or university
For this survey, we began with the original intended sample for the 2008 CSS,  which included 240 institutions. HERI researchers then added all 2004 TFS respondents who had indicated on the TFS that they intended to pursue a STEM major and had enrolled at an institution that had provided degree information. Our final targeted sample for this survey was  66,080 students across 533 institutions. Of the 57,790 reachable participants, a total of 13,671  participants located across 500 undergraduate institutions responded to the survey, which resulted in a response rate of 23.7%.

3. 50 Years of Aspirants

4. The Changing Demographics of STEM Aspirants
% of All STEM Aspirants
Women and racial ethnic minorities comprise a significant and growing proportion of those interested in STEM majors at college entry.
Year

5. STEM Aspirants: Highest Degree Desired
Aspirations for PhD and masters degree among STEM aspirants is on the rise.
% of students aspiring for a MD has fluctuated but overall is stable
Simultaneously with respect to academic achievement, average high school GPA increased dramatically.

6. Percentage of 2004 STEM Aspirants Who Completed STEM Degrees in Four, Five, and Six Years, by Race/Ethnicity
% of All STEM Aspirants
Many students take longer than 4 years to graduate. A majority of students who initially plan to major in STEM never earn a STEM degree, although rates are the most poor among URM students – indicating the persistent need for interventions for these groups.
Data Source: 2004 Freshman Survey, National Student Clearinghouse; HERI, UCLA

7. Characteristics of STEM Aspirants at College Entry

8. STEM Aspirants: Educational Background of Parents by Race
% Stem Aspirants by Race
URM
At Least One Parent has a Career in STEM
American Indian = 23.0%
Black = 23.3%
Hispanic = 14.3%
White = 29.5%
Asian = 38.0%
Similarly a dramatically smaller proportion of STEM aspirants are the first in their families to go to college.
American Indian: n=135
Black: n=7569
Hispanic: n=6806
White: n=42240
Asian: n=13525

9. Percentage of Incoming 2015 Freshmen by Race who
Completed High School Math Courses
W**; A**
URM
W**; A**
W**; A**
Most students have had pre-calc or trigonometry before entering college. Only about a third of URMs have had Calculus, comparing to over half of White and Asian students. The biggest disparities between groups is in the area of AP Calculus.
American Indian: n=135
Black: n=7569
Hispanic: n=6806
White: n=42240
Asian: n=13525
Two or More: n=9294
54.8% Females
Note: p <.01 = ** Significant group differences
W = compared to White student group, A = compared to Asian student group

10. Percentage of STEM Aspirants Who Think They Will Need
Tutoring or Remedial Work in Math or Science by Race
URM
American Indian: n=135
Asian: n=13525
Black: n=7569
Hispanic: n=6806
White: n=42240
Two or More: n=9294
W**; A**
W**; A**

11. STEM

12. The 2016 Post-Baccalaureate Survey
Where did the 2004 cohort go after earning a STEM bachelor’s degree?
Descriptive Statistics (n=2,333)
Demographics
Percent
Gender: Female
56%
American Indian
3.0%
Black
6.4%
Hispanic
10.1%
Asian/Pacific Islander
15.3%
White
65.2%
Non-URM Students
Left STEM completely 454/1878=24.2%
STEM workforce (never went to grad school in STEM) 414/1878= 22.0 %
STEM grad study 321/1878= 17.1%
Working in STEM and/or STEM grad study 689/1878= 36.7%
URM Students
Left STEM completely 138/455= 30.3%
STEM workforce (never went to grad school in STEM) 89/455= 19.6%
STEM grad study 81/455= 17.8%
Working in STEM and/or STEM grad study 147/455= 32.3%

13. Longitudinal Career Goals of Students Earning a Degree in STEM
2004 Career Goal at College Entry
(2004 Freshman Survey)
0.6% indicated College Teachers
10.4% indicated Science Researchers
2016 Career Goal
(2016 PBS)
2.1% Non Tenure-Track Faculty
2.2% Researcher,
Academic Setting
9.5% Researcher,
Non-Academic Setting
15.8% Tenure-Track Faculty
Current Career
(2016 PBS)
2.9% are College Faculty
11.0% are Research Scientists
Of the people who graduated with a STEM degree who responded to the 2016 PBS, nearly 16% want to be tenure track faculty, nearly 12 % want to be researchers (nearly 10% outside of academia). At college entry very small numbers wanted to be science researchers or college teachers.

14. Factors Predicting Students Belief their Undergraduate Program Prepared them to Pursue Graduate School
N = 2,333
T-ratio
Sig.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS (TFS 2004)
SES +
2.33 *
Person identifies as URM
2.14
Student native English speaker -
-2.23
Parents had an occupation in STEM
-2.17
PRE-COLLEGE ACHIEVEMENT, DISPOSITIONS, AND ASPIRATIONS (TFS 2004)
Academic Self-Concept factor
2.77 **
Average High School Grade
2.54
Aspirations for a doctoral degree (ref: Master’s)
2.39
Student’s probable career is not in STEM (ref: Health Career)
-2.19
UNDERGRADUATE EXPERIENCES & CONTEXTUAL INFLUENCES (PBS)
Overall GPA
4.39
***
Faculty mentorship and guidance factor
16.30
Worked with a faculty member on their research (Y/N)
2.51
Received supplemental instruction for STEM courses (Y/N)
2.23
Worked off campus, not for an internship or cooperative education program (Y/N)
-2.91
Undergrad major was Engineering (ref: Biological sciences)
-3.04
Undergrad major was Math and Computational Sciences (ref: biological sciences)
-2.06
Academic Self-Concept Factor: a unified measure of students’ beliefs about their abilities and confidence in academic environments. Includes the following:
Self rating: Academic ability
Self rating: Drive to achieve
Self rating: Mathematical ability
Self rating: self-confidence (intellectual)

15. Ability to Enter Workforce
Factors Predicting Students Belief their Undergraduate Program Prepared Them to Enter the Workforce
Ability to Enter Workforce
N = 2,333
T-ratio
Sig.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS (TFS 2004)
Gender (Female) +
2.44 *
SES
2.03
Parents had an occupation in STEM -
-2.46
PRE-COLLEGE ACHIEVEMENT, DISPOSITIONS, AND ASPIRATIONS (TFS 2004)
Average high school grade
2.38
SAT score
-2.30
Social Self-concept factor
3.40
***
Academic Self-concept factor
2.71 **
STEM identify factor
-1.99
Aspirators for a bachelor’s degree (ref: Master’s)
2.39
Student‘s probable career will not be in STEM (ref: Health career)
-2.35
UNDERGRADUATE EXPERIENCES AND CONTEXTUAL INFLUENCES (PBS)
Faculty mentorship and guidance factor
21.35
Participate in an internship or cooperative education program (Y/N)
5.35
Undergraduate major was in the Health Sciences (ref: Biological sciences)
5.19
Undergraduate major was in Engineering (ref: Biological sciences)
3.95
**There were gender differences but no URM differences
Social Self-Concept Factor: a unified measure of students’ beliefs about their abilities and confidence in social situations. Includes the following:
Self rating: Leadership ability
Self rating: Popularity
Self rating: Public speaking ability
Self rating: Self-confidence (social)
STEM Identity Factor: corresponds to a factor composed of the following four items: goal of wanting to make a theoretical contribution to science, wanting to be recognized as an authority in the field, wanting to be recognized for contributions to the field, and wanting to find a cure to a health problem
Faculty Mentorship and Guidance Factor:
An opportunity to collaborate on research
Advice about your educational program
Feedback on your academic work (outside of grades)
Intellectual challenge and simulation
An opportunity to discuss coursework outside of class
Help in accessing professional networks
Letters of recommendation
Information related to available professional job opportunities

16. Predictors of Remaining in a STEM Pathway 12 years After College Entry
N = 2,333 | STEM Pathway = STEM graduate school and/or STEM workforce
T-ratio
Sig.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS (TFS 2004)
Gender (Female) -
-3.35
***
PRE-COLLEGE ACHIEVEMENT, DISPOSITIONS, AND ASPIRATIONS (TFS 2004)
Years studying Mathematics +
2.17 *
Participated in a summer research program or health science research program
sponsored by a university
2.26
Social Self-concept factor
-3.28
UNDERGRADUATE EXPERIENCES & CONTEXTUAL INFLUENCES (11-YEAR POST-BACC SURVEY)
Undergraduate major was in Math and Computational Sciences (ref: Biological
sciences)
-2.27
Overall GPA
3.96
Faculty mentorship and guidance factor
4.18
Worked with a faculty member on their research as an undergraduate (Y/ N)
2.06
**There were gender differences but no URM differences (URM was not sig.)

17. Conclusion & Implications
Faculty mentorship and guidance is critical to preparing students’ pathways in STEM
Hands-on STEM experiences shape how students view the utility of their undergraduate programs (e.g. research, internships)
Given the complexity of career decision-making, consistent guidance of STEM graduates before and just after they leave the university so that they can achieve their career goals, especially in Graduate School
Directions for future research and practice
Longitudinal tracking of students and career progress
NRMN coaching for mentees and faculty mentors
Multiple methods extending research and practice to all career stages

18. Contact Us Faculty/Co-PIs: Postdoctoral Scholar: Administrative Staff:
Sylvia Hurtado
Kevin Eagan
Postdoctoral Scholar:
Tanya Figueroa
Administrative Staff:
Dominique Harrison
Graduate Research Assistants:
Ashlee Wilkins
Tracy Teel
Ana Gomez
Damani White-Lewis
Krystle Cobian
Papers and reports are available for download from project website:
Project