1. Dr. Georgy Ganev CLS, SUFEBA, BMA
11th Annual International Young Researchers Conference
Postcommunist Corruption: Causes, Manifestations, Consequences
The Perceptions, Reality and Politics of Corruption: the View from Bulgaria
Dr. Georgy Ganev
CLS, SUFEBA, BMA

2. Plan of the Talk Bulgaria is very corrupt: the perceptions
How corrupt is Bulgaria: the observable realities?
How do corruption realities and perceptions relate in Bulgaria?
The complicated politics of corruption in Bulgaria
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

3. Bulgaria is very corrupt 1
Bulgaria is significantly corrupt according to the most publicized international indicator, the Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index:
After some improvements a decade ago, the index stagnated and then follows a decidedly worsening path
The ranking in Bulgaria first improved, but then began deteriorating. Dead last in the EU.
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

4. Bulgaria is very corrupt 2
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

5. Bulgaria is very corrupt 3
Bulgarians perceive the level of spread of corruption in the country as very high:
Data from the most active and rigorous NGO anti-corruption coalition Coalition 2000, which has developed a consistent framework for observing corruption
Data almost identical to TI
Dynamic, however, is opposite – first worsening, then a slight and uneven improvement
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

6. Bulgaria is very corrupt 4
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

7. Bulgaria is very corrupt 5
The EU doesn’t trust Bulgaria in corruption and organized crime 1:
Bulgaria (and Romania) acceded to the EU, but with the unprecedented burden of the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism
This Mechanism is almost exclusively based on the premise that corruption is preventing the Bulgarian administrative and judicial system from functioning on a level acceptable for the EU
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

8. Bulgaria is very corrupt 6
The EU doesn’t trust Bulgaria in corruption and organized crime 2:
Bulgaria (and Romania) are not being admitted into Schengen due to doubts about corruption and organized crime – with effects on border control effectiveness
The European Commission is more favorable on this, but member countries are very nervous, not the least because their publics perceive the two countries as very corrupt.
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

9. How corrupt is Bulgaria, really? 1
Everything mentioned up to now is about perceptions.
But what about corruption realities?
They are notoriously difficult to measure
Results crucially (too crucially!) depend on definitions and methodology
Yet…
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

10. How corrupt is Bulgaria, really? 2
Coalition 2000 has adopted a “victimization survey” sociological approach based on nationally representative samples among:
General population
Businesses
Two “victimization” questions:
Have you been pressured to make a corrupt transaction?
Have you actually participated in a corrupt transaction?
Of course, levels are quite problematic with these questions, but if the methodology is consistently applied first differences might be quite telling
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

11. How corrupt is Bulgaria, really? 3
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

12. How corrupt is Bulgaria, really? 4
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

13. How corrupt is Bulgaria, really? 5
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

14. How corrupt is Bulgaria, really? 6
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

15. How corrupt is Bulgaria, really? 7
So, the “direct” data, with all its weaknesses, indicate, if anything, a drop in corruption in Bulgaria over the recent years
But perceptions point otherwise
Also note the slight, but telling, difference in “victimization” reports by the general public and the business people.
So, what is the relation between corruption perceptions and corruption realities in Bulgaria?
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

16. Realities/experience vs perceptions 1
Businesses have more experience and interaction with the state than the average citizen, and have different perceptions (Coalition 2000 data and reports):
Businesses’ perceptions on the spread of corruption are consistently lower than the general public’s by about a full point on the 10-point scale
Businesses, who actually deal with the Privatization Agency give it 1.5 points lower (less corruption) score in 2000, right after its most active period, than does the general public which has never seen the Agency
Businesses, who actually deal with customs almost constantly, give them the same 1.5 points lower (less corruption) score in 2000 than the general public which almost never actually deals with the customs
Besides, there is a significant disconnect between the general public’s own reported experiences with corruption and its perceptions about its spread
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

17. Realities/experience vs perceptions 2
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

18. Realities/experience vs perceptions 3
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

19. Realities/experience vs perceptions 4 the reality gap
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

20. Realities/experience vs perceptions 5 the experience gap
Values above bars are 2-tail sample means equality
t-test
p-values
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

21. Realities/experience vs perceptions some possible explanations
The transition from communist to post-communist corruption
Starting point perceived as relatively equal, things going towards relatively unequal – feeling of arbitrariness and unfairness
De facto monetization of communist-times second network key positions – from unobserved to highly visible inequalities
Explaining the success of the few “others” with them being corrupt and ruthless is psychologically cozier than with them being better, more entrepreneurial, more hardworking etc.
The whole societal project of post-communist transition towards market democracy fits the definition of corruption
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

22. Corruption politics in Bg: the situation
So, corruption is a convenient, psychologically and morally cozy explanation of many post-communist realities, especially things like increased uncertainty, higher visible inequality, unrealized personal ambitions
This is coupled with heavy media spin bias:
Sensationalism leading to no follow-through of stories
Heavy pro-corruption bias in stories – everything which conceivably can, is told as a story of corruption
This makes the anti-corruption rhetoric politically easy and an effective communication tool
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

23. Corruption politics in Bg: the missing incentive
Given the societal attitudes and the media bias, if you are in opposition anti-corrpution talk, programs and promises are the only game in town, but
Once in power, given the complex relationship between realities and perceptions, you lack an incentive to base actual policies on anti-corruption:
You wouldn’t get credit even if successful
Your are permanently vulnerable to attacks – there is always some corruption, if your whole legitimization is based on fighting it, it will surely get top exposure and delegitimize you
These two points form a vicious circle – you have to center almost all your pre-election rhetoric on anti-corruption, yet when in power you have no winning move based on explicitly fighting corruption
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

24. Corruption politics between Bg and the world
The CVM (cooperation and verification mechanism) – the unprecedented EU attitude towards Bulgaria and Romania
Schengen – corruption not explicitly included, but…
Importance of internal national politics in EU – the Netherlands type of lock-in
International observers like TI and others – basing measurement mostly on perceptions and surveys leads to a possible feedback loop
The international community also seems to have a strong preference towards corruption explanations and offers erratic remedies – e.g. the specialized court
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

25. Corruption politics in Bg: is there a good starting point?
The situation can be quite handily summarized by the following exchange:
Harry:
Is this real? Or has this been happening inside my head?
Dumbledore:
Of course it is happening inside your head, Harry, but why on earth should that mean that it is not real?
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg

26. Corruption politics in Bg: what is to be done in this mess?
Before elections: be more analytical without denying the severity of the problem – people are not stupid
Once in power, concentrate on positive (pro-), not on negative (anti-) messages and policies:
Increased transparency of decisions
Higher tractability of decision-making
Introduce silent agreement more broadly
Depersonalize interactions – electronic government
Tangible results wherever possible – yes, highways are not so bad from this point of view
Zero tolerance toward uncovered corruption
Treat all criticisms and recommendations as positive desire to help
(a controversial one) redistribute less – after all, it is about abusing public funds
Ulitmately, it is a two-pronged strategy:
Do NOT TALK about it
Just DO it
Havighurst Center th AIYRC: Postcommunist Corruption The View from Bg