1. The progress we’ve made… and the road to travel
Servaas van der Berg
ReSEP,
Department of Economics,
University of Stellenbosch
28 September 2017

2. Overview Progress in attainment
More recent progress in quality/cognitive outcomes
Matric
TIMSS
SACMEQ
But many issues remain:
Poor quality, large deficits compared to other upper-middle-income countries, despite the progress we’ve made
Weak quality early in school system
High levels of inequality

3. Rising educational attainment

4. Average years of education by race and birth cohort, 2011 (Source: Own calculations from Census 2011 (Supercross))

5. % of all young adults 21-25 who have completed various grades

6. % of white young adults 21-25 who have completed various grades

7. Martin Gustafsson/DBE research on matric performance

8. High level Maths achievers

9. % of schools with high-level maths achievers
Note: A learner is considered a ‘high-level achiever’ here if a mark was achieved which would place him or her within the performance range of the top 20% of white Grade 12 learners. Roughly, the cut-off used is what would permit a learner entry into a mathematically-oriented university programme. Public schools with missing quintile were excluded.
Note: Accuracy of this data influenced by quintile data for many schools not being available.
Source: Martin Gustafsson Unpublished document.

10. HSRC (Vijay Reddy et al.) on TIMSS Maths

11. TIMSS Maths performance by parent education

12. Percentiles of TIMSS Maths score distribution
It took us 12 years to learn that we are improving – and without TIMSS we would not even have known that

13. Percentiles of TIMSS Maths score distribution

14. Percentiles of TIMSS Maths score distribution – SA & Australia

15. What can we learn from SACMEQ, etc?

16. But despite progress, there is no room for complacency…

17. Cumulative performance in PIRLS 2006 in England and SA

18. % of Gr4 students that are reading illiterate or cannot read for meaning (in home language)

19. Reading fluency in English
English reading fluency of Gr5 second language learners from rural areas is similar to Gr1 second language learners in Florida – Draper & Spaull 2015

20. English literacy in Gr6: Example from V-ANA 2012
Only 30% of Gr6 children could answer this question
Only 20% in no-fee schools (Quintiles 1 – 3) could

21. Some V-ANA responses in 2012
In 2011 V-ANA, only 16% of Gr3s could answer this question:
72 – 37 = …
Almost half (46%) could not identify the tallest member of this team
Only 9% of Gr6s could answer
10% of 180 is equal to …
Source: Olivia Ezeobi, 2012 (unpublished)

22. NSES question 42
Gr3 maths curriculum: “Can perform calculations using appropriate symbols to solve problems involving: division of at least 2-digit by 1-digit numbers”
Taylor, N., & Reddi, B. (2013). Writing and learning mathematics. In N. Taylor, S. Van der Berg, & T. Mabogoane, Creating Effective Schools. Cape Town: Pearson.
Source: Spaull & Viljoen, 2013

23. Some things we need to do
Measure
… measure
…measure
– and use the results to feed back information
To teachers
To children
To policy makers
To parents

24. Some things we still need to know
How do some individuals in very weak schools somehow still perform exceptionally well
and why does it largely remain confined to individuals?
Why do children still progress after falling behind? (Do teachers teach work of lower grades, or do they learn from their peers?)
What is preventing a smoother language transition (compared to our neighbours, for instance)?