1. Attacking Free Kicks: Cross or Shot?
Dan Barnett
@OptaPro
#OptaProforum

2. Why Analyse Free Kicks? Repeatable actions
Relatively small pool of options: Shoot/Cross/Pass with Binary outcome Goal/No Goal
Activity from 2013/14 Season for main 5 Leagues:
Premier League
Serie A
La Liga
Bundesliga
Ligue 1
Overall outcome of over 8,000 free kicks in attacking areas (approx. 35 yards) from which a shot or cross taken
Outcome analysis limited to where a cross or shot taken direct from the free kick and goal/no goal within the immediate phase of play from a cross (30 seconds) or directly from a shot

3. Hit and Hope or Calculated Risk?
Is shooting in this scenario the best option?
Click video to play

4. They may not always go in, but when they do….
Click video to play

5. Activity Map – Location of Shots/Crosses from Free Kicks
A lot of areas are either cross or shot with relatively little overlap

6. Which areas have a realistic choice of Cross or Shot?
Areas highlighted those with a more even ratio of Shots to Crosses
The can be considered the ‘Decision Areas’

7. Side of Box 304 8 126 2.6% 6.3% 24-30 yards out off Central 264 9 568
Conversion by Area
Based on figures below should teams be more aggressive closer to goal and more conservative further out
Area
Cross
Cross Goal
Shot
Shot Goal
Cross Conversion %
Shot Conversion %
Side of Box
304 8
126
2.6%
6.3%
24-30 yards out off Central
264 9
568 29
3.4%
5.1%
30+ Yards out, Central 78 4
412 5
1.2%
Is there a ‘Tipping Point’ for central free kicks at which the distance is such that a keeper has sufficient time to usually react, is around 30 yards the point at which hope triumphs over realism?

8. One size doesn’t fit all
Focusing on Free Kicks in the ‘Decision Area’ Lyon shoot 71% of the time
Atletico Madrid shot just 6% of the time
Team
Free Kicks
% Shoot
Torino 31
74%
Lyon 38
71%
Real Madrid
Livorno 41
68%
Hoffenheim 32
66%
Man. City 28
18%
Man. United 23
17%
Toulouse
13%
West Ham United 19
11%
Atlético de Madrid 35 6%

9. Torino – Shoot from Everywhere
Torino have the most aggressive approach in terms of shooting even if it’s only provided 2 goals: Yellow (Shots) and Blue (Goals)

10. Is there a Free Kick Elite? – Free Kick Conversion
Always the issue around small sample sizes/locations. Overall Free Kick conversion at 6.2%, tiny difference in outcome between average and elite but Toure’s figures stand out, if probably unsustainable (4 goals from 7 shots)
Player
Shots
Goals %
Touré 7 4
57%
Pirlo 32
13%
Suárez 27 3
11%
Ronaldo 30
10%
Messi 28 2 7%
Zlatan 39 5%

11. Defending: It’s not just where the ball is, it’s who you’re against
Big difference between facing Neuer and a League 2 goalkeeper
At what probability of a goal do you switch from the traditional wall to something more resembling the free for all of an indirect free kick inside the box?
May just be being wise after the event but this example made to look too easy
Click video to play

12. If only there was an example of it in action…..
After writing this presentation then heard about this in France
This kind of tactic will lead to counter-tactics (e.g., attacking team making their own wall in front of the keeper)
Question is, can any non-standard strategy result in a lower conversion than usual?
Click video to play

13. Recommendations/Future Analysis
Fuller ‘Phase of Play’ analysis – Analyse all Free Kicks until the ball goes out of play (and then chaining these outcomes together to get the full value of a free kick depending on position and action)
Incorporate outcomes of Pass option to analysis e.g., Analyse Cross vs. Pass for instances of free kicks in areas where shooting an unlikely option
Tracking Data: Identifying which teams are weak at covering free kicks from a defensive view point
Bundesliga teams shoot directly 77% of time for ‘Decision Area’ free kicks compared to 54% in Premier League but conversely 55% of shots from Free Kicks in this area are taken with a players right foot in Bundesliga but 74% in Premier League. Is there are a lack of left footed Free Kick takers in PL?
Not that being a right footed player taking a free kick on the right bothered Eriksen….
Click video to play

14. Thank you Dan Barnett www.WeArePremierLeague.com @we_r_pl
#OptaProForum