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Natural history and prognostic indicators of survival in cirrhosis: A systematic review of 118 studies Gennaro D'Amico, Guadalupe Garcia-Tsao, Luigi Pagliaro Journal of Hepatology Volume 44, Issue 1, Pages (January 2006) DOI: /j.jhep Copyright © 2005 European Association for the Study of the Liver Terms and Conditions
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Fig. 1 The natural history of cirrhosis and components of prognosis. A simplified view. Journal of Hepatology , DOI: ( /j.jhep ) Copyright © 2005 European Association for the Study of the Liver Terms and Conditions
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Fig. 2 Cumulative proportion of patients transitioning from a compensated to a decompensated stage. Individual patient data from two prospective studies of the natural history of cirrhosis [8,10]. Journal of Hepatology , DOI: ( /j.jhep ) Copyright © 2005 European Association for the Study of the Liver Terms and Conditions
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Fig. 3 Survival according to decompensation at diagnosis (A) and while remaining in the compensated or decompensated stages (B). Individual patient data from two prospective studies of the natural history of cirrhosis [8,10]. [This figure appears in colour on the web.] Journal of Hepatology , DOI: ( /j.jhep ) Copyright © 2005 European Association for the Study of the Liver Terms and Conditions
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Fig. 4 Clinical course of cirrhosis: 1-year outcome probabilities according to clinical stages. Journal of Hepatology , DOI: ( /j.jhep ) Copyright © 2005 European Association for the Study of the Liver Terms and Conditions
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Fig. 5 Number of variables included in the multivariable analysis as related to the number of observed deaths in 114 studies reporting this information. Each study is represented by a dot. The diagonal line represents the points where the ratio of deaths:variables is equal to 10. In the studies above the diagonal line, the ratio is <10 and there is a considerable risk of overfitting the data, and therefore of false-positive results. In studies below the diagonal line, the risk of overfitting is acceptably low. Journal of Hepatology , DOI: ( /j.jhep ) Copyright © 2005 European Association for the Study of the Liver Terms and Conditions
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Fig. 6 Box plots of one and two-year survival rates in Child–Pugh (or variants) class A, B and C in the studies reporting this information. The number of studies providing the relevant information is reported in Table 2. Journal of Hepatology , DOI: ( /j.jhep ) Copyright © 2005 European Association for the Study of the Liver Terms and Conditions
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Fig. 7 Box plots of one and two-year survival rate in studies including only compensated (n=18 studies) or decompensated (n=23 studies) patients. Journal of Hepatology , DOI: ( /j.jhep ) Copyright © 2005 European Association for the Study of the Liver Terms and Conditions
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