1. The Future of AI and Work
Miles Brundage
School for the Future of Innovation in Society
Arizona State University

2. Overview Overview of societal issues raised by AI
Theories of technological unemployment
AI as work improver
AI as work reducer
What to do?
Slide 2

3. The range of AI/society issues
Today:
Lethal autonomous weapons
Responsibility (e.g. for autonomous cars)
Impact on work
Privacy and bias issues in commercial systems
AI as problem solver (but which problems?)
Increasing uncertainty…
Slide 3

4. The range of AI/society issues
Medium term:
Impacts on relationships (sex bots, preference for robot companionship)
Much more impact on work
Increasing uncertainty…
Slide 4

5. The range of AI/society issues
Increasing uncertainty…
Long term:
The control problem (Bostrom 2014)
Leisure society introduces new issues
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6. Theories of technological unemployment
“Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren” – John Maynard Keynes, 1930
Major debate in 30’s, 60’s, 90’s, and to a lesser extent, today (Bix, 2000)
Is this time different?
Maybe, because of learning and broader range of abilities
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7. Theories of job vulnerability
Murnane/Levy 2004:
Routine vs. non-routine
Frey and Osborne 2013:
Social intelligence
Creative intelligence
Perception and manipulation
Autor 2013:
Novelty of tasks
Brynjolfsson/McAfee 2014:
Creativity
Frey and Osborne 2013
Slide 7

8. Theories of job vulnerability: synthesis
The safest jobs seem to be non-routine, social, and creative, and involve perception, manipulation, and the performance of novel tasks.
Also, more highly paid jobs, all things being equal, can be more profitably automated, as can jobs done by many people.
Many international/regional implications…
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9. AI as work improver A common view (e.g. Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014):
Robots and AI will do the dull, dirty, and dangerous tasks
Humans will do the challenging, novel, and safe tasks
Issues with this:
Technical issues
Incentive issues
Identity issues
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10. AI as work reducer End of work as threat… ….and opportunity
Jerger, 1931
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11. AI as work reducer How soon might substantial impacts occur?
Technical considerations
Commercialization and human capital considerations
Consumer preference considerations
Policy considerations
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12. What to do? Aim for robustness
Research on technology forecasting, understanding ethical/political/economic issues, AI safety/transparency, etc.
Targeted funding for grand challenges
Building expertise/capacity in governments at all levels
Development of codes of conduct (e.g. EPSRC principles in the UK, ongoing work by major technology companies and IEEE)
Gradually rising basic income as economic productivity increases to enable greater choice in work/leisure split, less pressure to take bad jobs
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13. Thanks!
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