1. Australia – land of opportunity
Nick Kirwan
Introduction/background
A lot will happen in Oz today:
840 people born
408 deaths
1,464 people will suffer a life changing illness or become unable to work – more than 1 person every minute

2. Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Australia’s growing population
Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Australia passed a significant milestone on 16 February The population hit 24 million people.
Australians are young (36 years 8 months) almost 10 years younger than the average Japanese person
Twice as many births as deaths in Australia every year, 305 thousand births compared to 145 thousand deaths , so the population is growing
Living longer than ever before – we get an extra year of life expectancy for every 4 years that goes by
So there will be less support and people will need to be more self-reliant in both retirement funds and insurance.
Insurance underpins everything – homes, whether rented or purchased, lifestyles, family and super pots. How much will they be worth if you can’t put anything in because you can’t work?

3. Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Australia by numbers – past, present & future
Past (1975)
Present
(2015)
Future
(2055)
Population
13.9m
23.9m
39.7m
Retired
1.2m
3.6m
8.9m
Over 85
0.1m
0.5m
1.9m
Working age
15.4m
23.8m
Participation
61.0%
64.6%
62.4%
Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
308,000 births – 149,300 girls and 158,700 boys
147,000 deaths
534,000 life changing illness
By 2032, deaths overtake births due to aging and the natural population starts to shrink
Overall, continues growing through immigration
Participation has grown in the past due to more women working but is set to shrink in future due to aging
Huge increase in retired and infirm people in later life – 85 is used internationally as a proxy for needing care as it’s the approximate median age for that

4. Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Participation
Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016

5. Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Australia’s changing population
Males
Females
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
64-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
200
400
600
800
1000
‘000
‘000
Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Talk through the shape of the population by age group – we can see the effect of aging and the increase in people in retirement
Highlights area that is the working age population now and in future

6. Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Dependency Ratio
7.5
Past
4.5
Present
2.7
Future
Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Explain dependency ratio - which is, in percentage terms, the number of persons of working age for every person above retirement age
What does this mean? Pressure on Government spending, people need to take more responsibility for own security
Excellent outlook for financial services.

7. Australians living to over 100 years old
40,000
5,000
122
Future
Present
Past
Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
The dramatic increase in the number of centenarians — forecast to be about 40,000 Australians in 2035 — is well over 300 times the 122 people who reached the milestone in 1975.
Australia has a fast growing age group for those aged over 100, with this set to rise significantly by 2035.

8. Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Australian life expectancy – the long view,
WOMEN
MEN
Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Long term trend of increasing life expectancy
More or less a straight line – same in all developed countries
Gradient is 25%

9. Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Life expectancy is higher the older you are.  For example, for a 60-year-old, life expectancy is the average age at which people died during that year, excluding all those who died prior to age 60.
As the people who died younger are excluded, the average age of life expectancy is higher.
Lifestyle and medical improvements have seen constant increases in life expectancy. In fact, in the last 20 years, Australia’s life expectancy has increased by five years, or 14 minutes every hour over this period.
Source:

10. Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
What it means…
Growing population – more people needing advice 1
Higher demand for Government support – greater need for self-provision 2
People will live longer than they expect to 3
People will have more complex needs – eg in middle life, frail parents 4
Retirement will be longer – even ‘full’ super pots will need to work harder 5
Insurance underpins everything – people’s home, lifestyle and super 6
Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016
Explain each bullet
Close with stories about the value of insurance:
Life cover
CI, exercise showing that everyone knows someone who’s had a CI.
Origins of IP – today, doubly important, protecting families, but also protecting super.
How much will the pot be worth if you can’t put any money in it?
Close, births, deaths and illnesses.

11. Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016

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14. Affinia conference | Port Douglas 2016