1. Department of Trade & Industry.
The Blockade: Potential Driver of SA Trade.
Analysis of GCC Trade with Qatar and opportunities
for South African substitution
Prepared by Export Promotion: Middle East Directorate
Trade and Investment SA
the dti
Mr Abdul G Dangor
August 2017

2. Department of Trade & Industry.
Bilateral trade between South Africa and Qatar.
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Exports R R R R R
Imports R R R R R
Total trade R R R R R
Trade balance -R -R -R -R -R
Table 1: South Africa – Qatar Bilateral Trade ZAR (R)
South Africa’s exports to Qatar have maintained a consistent increase from 2010 to 2015, reflected by a positive 11 % annual growth in 2015 and 45 % average annual growth from 2010 to Exports between 2015 to 2016 saw a phenomenal increase in exports from South Africa to Qatar with a 116% increase in exports from R 585 000 000 to R 1 140 494 000. This increase is spread across a number of sectors including Automotive, Chemicals, Iron & Steel, Fruit & Nuts etc. (Refer to table below denoting top 10 exports).
South Africa’s imports from Qatar grew by 51 % and recorded an average growth of 24 % in the period with a decline of R1 billion between SA’s imports from Qatar decreased from R6, 5 billion in 2015 to R5, 5 billion in This has resulted in the trade balance narrow considerably in 2016 in South Africa’s favour.
Based on table 1 above, Qatar continues to enjoy a trade surplus over South Africa in the period 2010 to South Africa had a trade deficit of R3.8 billion in Total trade has steadily grown at an average of 22.48% and grew by 47.17% in 2015.
*Unless indicated otherwise all data sourced from TradeMap
Data Analysis and compilation by: KOTETSO TSOAI

3. South Africa's exports to Qatar
Department of Trade & Industry.
Top Ten exports from South Africa to Qatar.
(2 digit HS Code)
Product code
Product label
South Africa's exports to Qatar
Value in 2012
Value in 2013
Value in 2014
Value in 2015
Value in 2016
'TOTAL
All products $ $ $ $ $
'87
Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof $
$749.00 $ $ $
'28
Inorganic chemicals; organic or inorganic compounds of precious metals, of rare-earth metals, of radioactive elements or of isotopes $ $ $ $ $
'73
Articles of iron or steel $ $ $ $ $
'72
Iron and steel $ $ $ $ $
'08
Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruit or melons $ $ $ $ $
'38
Miscellaneous chemical products $ $ $
$96.00 $
'84
Machinery, mechanical appliances, nuclear reactors, boilers; parts thereof $ $ $ $ $
'01
Live animals
$0.00
$457.00 $ $ $
'02
Meat and edible meat offal
$245.00
$532.00 $ $ $
'85
Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles
$239.00
$611.00
$642.00 $ $
Table 2: Top 10 South African Exports to Qatar USD ($)
*Unless indicated otherwise all data sourced from TradeMap
Data Analysis and compilation by: KOTETSO TSOAI

4. Department of Trade & Industry.
Top 10 Exporters to Qatar vs. South Africa
Exporters
Value imported in 2016 (USD thousand)
Trade balance 2016 (USD thousand)
Share in Qatar's imports (%)
Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.)
Growth in imported value between (%, p.a.)
Total $ $
100 6 -6
United States of America $ -$
18.7 5 17
Germany $ -$
10.7
United Kingdom $ -$
9.9 8
-17
France $ -$
7.6 29
-34
Saudi Arabia $ -$
6.3 4
Japan $ $
5.8 2
China $ $
5.7
-33
Italy $ -$
3.8 -8
Switzerland $ -$
3.2 7
-15
India $ $
2.9
-21
South Africa $ $
0.3 9
116
*Unless indicated otherwise all data sourced from TradeMap
Data Analysis and compilation by: KOTETSO TSOAI

5. Department of Trade & Industry.
The Blockade: Regional Impact and for South Africa.
The blockade imposed on Qatar by UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain has had a “transitioning” effect on Qatar. Immediately after the June 2017 blockade transit of goods lingered on Saudi borders, UAE ports, and offshore. This led to temporary shortages in products. However, a rebound in delivery of goods through the securing of alternative sources from Turkey, Iran and other countries is being implemented. Shipping is being rerouted through Oman and with lower handling fees the higher cost of sourcing new suppliers may be offset.
Qatar has shown tenacity in bringing its transit lines back online and is opening its market to new suppliers substituting imports from Saudi, UAE and Bahrain. In the near term we may see delays in delivery of South African goods shipped including Auto and Machinery, Chemicals and Metals but resume with new routes.
Some of the key regional trade and investment repercussions from the blockade include:
Reduction of investment in Saudi, UAE and Bahrain
Qatar may develop trade relations with new regional countries e.g. Turkey and Iran shifting both political and economic landscape
Qatar’s trade with neighbors amount to $10Billion will experience shift on both sides
For South Africa:
Disruption in delivery of goods in the near term especially sea freight (Auto & Capital Equipment, Metals and Chemicals)
It opens potential for a new market for SA products (Partner Substitution)
A disruption in infrastructure and building projects will further disrupt import of products servicing this sector
South Africa stand a good chance of increasing its consumer products especially Agro Processed products as substitutes for Saudi, UAE and Bahrain originating products. With an extremely high GDP per Capita, Qatari consumers may overlook pricing of SA products . A speedy introduction during the blockade could sway consumer tastes allowing SA to retain its market post Blockade.
In summary, the blockade will disrupt the flow of goods to Qatar in the short term, but, South Africa should start exploring the promotion of substitute products previously imported from Saudi, UAE and Bahrain. The next page details some of these opportunity Sectors.

6. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)'s exports to Qatar
Department of Trade & Industry.
The Blockade: GCC Exports to Qatar.
Product code
Product label
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)'s exports to Qatar
Value in 2014
Value in 2015
Value in 2016
'TOTAL
All products
'26
Ores, slag and ash
772951
'04
Dairy produce; birds' eggs; natural honey; edible products of animal origin, not elsewhere ...
'73
Articles of iron or steel
'84
Machinery, mechanical appliances, nuclear reactors, boilers; parts thereof
'85
Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television ...
'39
Plastics and articles thereof
'89
Ships, boats and floating structures
580368
703633
'87
Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof
'72
Iron and steel
'27
Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral ...
'19
Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; pastrycooks' products
665053
908883
982262
'29
Organic chemicals
908055
642827
915990
'76
Aluminium and articles thereof
652690
766977
853850
'34
Soap, organic surface-active agents, washing preparations, lubricating preparations, artificial ...
822883
862611
840455
'71
Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad ...
817768
'02
Meat and edible meat offal
469731
674790
744520
'22
Beverages, spirits and vinegar
701690
721112
741574
'68
Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials
910588
733630
'94
Furniture; bedding, mattresses, mattress supports, cushions and similar stuffed furnishings; ...
874700
668940
'48
Paper and paperboard; articles of paper pulp, of paper or of paperboard
500186
654597
547212
'30
Pharmaceutical products
882374
423308
507422
*Unless indicated otherwise all data sourced from TradeMap
Data Analysis and compilation by: KOTETSO TSOAI

7. Department of Trade & Industry.
The Blockade: A potential driver of trade for 2017/2018.
Note: Export potential map does not take the blockade into consideration but guides in looking for export potential based on available supply from South Africa matched with demand from Qatar
*Unless indicated otherwise all data sourced from TradeMap
Data Analysis and compilation by: KOTETSO TSOAI

8. Department of Trade & Industry.
The Blockade: A potential driver of trade for 2017/2018.
Export substitution potential for South African products into Qatar based on current South African world exports and current GCC exports into Qatar 1
. Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad … 2
. Ores, slag and ash 3.
Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral … 4.
Machinery, mechanical appliances, nuclear reactors, boilers; parts thereof 5.
Aluminium and articles thereof 6.
Beverages, spirits and vinegar 7.
Articles of iron or steel 8.
Organic chemicals 9.
Paper and paperboard; articles of paper pulp, of paper or of paperboard
*Unless indicated otherwise all data sourced from TradeMap
Data Analysis and compilation by: KOTETSO TSOAI

9. THANK YOU
*Unless indicated otherwise all data sourced from TradeMap