1. Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration
Historical trends in life expectancy, fertility and migration

2. Life expectancy

3. Africa: Life expectancy

4. Africa: Life expectancy
The five African countries with the highest and the lowest life expectancy,
Rank
Country
Life expectancy at birth, bot sexes combined 1
Réunion
77.26 2
Mayotte
77.14 3
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
74.04 4
Tunisia
73.90 5
Cape Verde
73.54 50
Guinea-Bissau
46.76 51
Zimbabwe
46.59 52
Sierra Leone
46.26 53
Lesotho
46.02 54
Central African Republic
45.91
Session 04_Demographic Trends_Presentation.xlsx

5. Fertility levels

6. Fertility

7. Niger TFR naïve estimates
Official estimates
National Trend
1992 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
1992 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
1998 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
1998 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2000 MICS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2001 RGPH P/F ratios (indirect method)
2006 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
2006 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2006 WPP Revision
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1988 census
(births < 12 months)
1992 DHS
(births < 3 years)
1998 DHS
2006 DHS/MICS3
(births < 5 years)
2001 census

8. Niger TFR final estimates
Official estimates
National Trend
1992 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
1992 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
1998 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
1998 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2000 MICS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2001 RGPH P/F ratios (indirect method)
2006 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
2006 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2006 WPP Revision
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1988 census
(births < 12 months)
1992 DHS
(births < 3 years)
1998 DHS
2006 DHS/MICS3
(births < 5 years)
2001 census

9. Africa: Fertility

10. International migration

11. Africa: International Migration

12. Migration rates

13. Africa: Migration rates

14. Winners and losers…

15. South-South migration is as common …
North
North
55 million
12.6 million
72.7 million
2010
73.6 million
South
South
…as South-North migration
Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2011

16. Momentum Total population of high -
4.2
1.2
2.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
2075
2100
Billions
Total population of high -
fertility countries by variants, 1950
Medium
Instant