1. Maximum and Minimum Nuclear Power Paths for the Republic of Korea
Jungmin KANG
CISAC, Stanford University
2007 AES Meeting
Beijing, China, Oct.31 – Nov.2, 2007

2. Contents Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK
Constraints in deploying new NPPs in the ROK
Possibility of deployment of NPPs in the DPRK
Concluding remarks

3. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK
Figure 1. NPPs sites in the ROK

4. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’)
Table 1. Current and planned nuclear power in the ROK
Site
Unit
Type
Capacity (MWe)
Initial Operation
Kori
Kori-1
Kori-2
Kori-3
Kori-4
Sinkori-1
Sinkori-2
Sinkori-3
Sinkori-4
PWR
587
650
950
1000
1400
Apr. 1978
Jul. 1983
Sept. 1985
Apr. 1986
Dec. 2010
Dec. 2011
Sept. 2013
Sept. 2014
Yonggwang
Yonggwang-1
Yonggwang-2
Yonggwang-3
Yonggwang-4
Yonggwang-5
Yonggwang-6
Aug. 1986
Jun. 1987
Mar. 1995
Jan. 1996
Apr. 2002
Oct. 2002
Ulchin
Ulchin-1
Ulchin-2
Ulchin-3
Ulchin-4
Ulchin-5
Ulchin-6
Sinulchin-1
Sinulchin-2
Sept. 1988
Sept. 1989
Aug. 1998
Dec. 1999
Jul. 2004
Jun. 2005
Dec. 2015
Dec. 2016
Wolsong
Wolsong-1
Wolsong-2
Wolsong-3
Wolsong-4
CANDU
679
700
Apr. 1983
Jul. 1997
Jul. 1998
Oct. 1999
Sinwolsong-1
Sinwolsong-2
Oct. 2011
Oct. 2012

5. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’)
16 PWRs and 4 CANDUs in operation
6 PWRs under construction
2 PWRs to be deployed by 2016
Therefore, 24 PWRs and 4 CANDUs in operation by 2016
(i.e., 27.3 GWe, corresponding to 42.9% electricity generation in 2016)

6. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’)
Figure 2. Current and planned nuclear power in the ROK

7. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’)
Table 2. Number of NPPs in the current sites of the ROK
Site
Type
Current and planned by 2016
Maximum deployable
Kori
PWR 8 12
Yonggwang 6
Ulchin 10
Wolsong
CANDU 4 2

8. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’)
Table 3. Cases for the conceivable NPPs deployment scenario in the ROK
Case
Assumption
Case 1
No replacement of NPPs once they are decommissioned
Case 2
Replacement of NPPs with decommissioned ones in 10 years after shutdown by 2050 (1.4GWe PWRs for decommissioned PWRs while 0.7 Gwe CANDUs for decommissioned CANDUs)
Case 3
Replacement of NPPs with decommissioned ones in 10 years after shutdown by 2050 (1.4GWe PWRs for decommissioned PWRs and CANDUs)
Case 4
In addition to Case 3, further deployment of eight 1.4GWe PWRs since 2017 (one in each year) (i.e., +4 units at Kori, +2 units at Ulchin, +2 units at Wolsong)

9. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’)
Table 3. Cases for the conceivable NPPs deployment scenario in the ROK (cont’)
Sub-case
Assumption
Sub-case 1
No life-time extension: 40y for less than 1.0 GWe PWRs, 60y for 1.4GWe PWRs, and 30y for CANDUs
Sub-case 2
Life-time extension: 50y for less than 1.0 GWe PWRs, 60y for 1.4GWe PWRs, and 30y for CANDUs
Sub-case 3
Life-time extension: 60y for less than 1.0 GWe PWRs, 60y for 1.4GWe PWRs, and 30y for CANDUs
Sub-case 4
Life-time extension: 50y for less than 1.0 GWe PWRs, 60y for 1.4GWe PWRs, and 40y for CANDUs
Sub-case 5
Life-time extension: 60y for less than 1.0 GWe PWRs, 60y for 1.4GWe PWRs, and 40y for CANDUs

10. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’)
Figure 3. Installed nuclear capacity in the ROK (case 1)

11. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’)
Figure 4. Installed nuclear capacity in the ROK (case 2)

12. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’)
Figure 5. Installed nuclear capacity in the ROK (case 3)

13. I. Current status and prospects of nuclear power in the ROK (cont’)
Figure 6. Installed nuclear capacity in the ROK (case 4)

14. II. Constraints in deploying new NPPs in the ROK
Number of NPPs to be deployed in the ROK is mainly limited due to site restriction resulted from strong oppositions from local communities against nuclear facilities.
Therefore, maximum number of NPPs to be deployed in the ROK would be 34 PWRs if no new site for NPPs are available except current four sites.

15. III. Possibility of deployment of NPPs in the DPRK
The DPRK has been requiring two LWRs (1,000 MWe) as a reward for abandoning its nuclear weapons program.
However, problems of poor condition of electric grid and relatively small total electricity capacity of the DPRK cannot afford the deployment of large electricity capacities of NPPs till those problems are solved, which might not be expected within roughly a couple of decades.
Therefore, several smaller power capacity of NPPs, e.g. a few hundred MWe NPPs, would be more attractive for the DPRK than two 1,000 MWe NPPs, under the IAEA safeguards, in a near future.
Removing the concerns of spent fuel management and fresh fuel supply assurance for the smaller power capacity of NPPs of the DPRK, a recent Russian proposal of fuel lease and take-back would be an interesting option for the DPRK.

16. IV. Concluding remarks
Maximum number of NPPs to be deployed in the ROK would be 34 PWRs if no new site for NPPs are available except current four sites.
A study is under way looking for a possibility of deployment of smaller electricity capacities of NPPs in the DPRK in a near future, as a part of nuclear power system of unified Korean peninsula in the future.