1. PS 04 ‒ Five Immutable Principles of Program Success Glen B. Alleman ClearPlan Consulting, LLC 129 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

2. Five Immutable Principles of Program Success and their supporting Processes and Practices IPMW 2017 – IPPM: Future Dimensions of Integration 229 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

3. 3 1.What Does DONE Look Like? 2.How Do We Get to DONE? 3.Is There Enough Time, Money, and Resources, To Get to DONE? 4.What Impediments Will Be Encountered Along The Way to DONE? 5.What Units of Measure are used to confirm Progress To Plan Toward Done? All Successful Programs Require Credible Answers To Five Questions … 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

4. 4+1 Process Questions Every Successful Program Must Answer CapabilitiesRequirementsPlansExecution 2.What technical and operational requirements are needed to deliver these capabilities? 1.What capabilities are needed to fulfill the Concept of Operations †, the Mission and Vision, or the Business System Requirements? 3.What schedule delivers the product or services on time to meet the requirements? 4.What periodic measures of physical percent complete assure progress to plan? What impediments to success, their mitigations, retirement plans, or “buy downs are in place to increase the probability of success?” + Continuous Risk Management † A Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes the characteristics of a system from the point of view of an individual who will use that system. It is used to communicate the quantitative and qualitative system characteristics to all stakeholders.     429 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

5. 5 Identify Needed Capabilities Establish a Performance Measurement Baseline Execute the Performance Measurement Baseline Capabilities Based Plan Operational Needs Earned Value Performance 0% /100% Technical Performance Measures System Value Stream Technical Requirements Identify Requirements Baseline Technical Performance Measures PMB Changes to Needed Capabilities Changes to Requirements Baseline Changes to Performance Baseline      29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop Five Processes Needed to Increase Probability of Program Success

6. ❶ ‒ Identify the Needed Capabilities What Should We Do? Where Are We Now? Abstracted from: “Capabilities ‒ Based Planning – How It Is Intended To Work And Challenges To Its Successful Implementation,” Col. Stephen K. Walker, United States Army, U. S. Army War College, March 2005 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop 6

7. ❶ ‒ From Mission Capabilities to Done 7 “Coming to Grips with Measures of Effectiveness,” N. Sproles, Systems Engineering, Volume 3, Number 1, pp. 50–58 Measures of Effectiveness Key Performance Parameters Measures of Performance Technical Performance Measures Mission Needs Acquirer Defines the Needed Capabilities in terms of Operational Scenarios Supplier Defines Physical Solutions that meet the needs of the Stakeholders Operational measures of success related to the achievement of the mission or operational objective being evaluated. Measures that characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation. Measures used to assess design progress, compliance to performance requirements, and technical risks. 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

8. ❷ ‒ Identify Requirements Baseline Needed to Fulfill the Capabilities 8 † Systems Requirements Practices, Jeffery O. Grady, McGraw Hill, 1993 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

9. ❸ ‒ Three Elements of the Performance Measurement Baseline 9 Cost Baseline Schedule Baseline Technical Baseline Determine Scope and Approach Develop Technical Logic Develop Technical Baseline Develop WBS Define Activities Estimate Time Durations Sequence Activities Finalize Schedule Identify Apportioned Milestones Determine Resource Requirement Prepare Cost Estimate Resource Load Schedule Finalize Apportioned Milestones Determine Funding Constraints Approve PMB Perform Functional Analysis 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

10. ❹ ‒ Execute the Performance Measurement Baseline 1029 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

11. ❺ ‒ Perform Continuous Risk Management … 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop11 Analyze Plan Track Control Identify Risks, Issues, and Concerns Evaluate, classify, and prioritize risks Decide what should be done about each risk Monitor risk metrics and verify/validate mitigations Make risk decisions Subproject and partner data/constraints, hazard analysis, FMEA, FTA, etc. Risk data: test data, expert opinion, hazard analysis, FMEA, FTA, lessons learned, technical analysis Resources Replan Mitigation Program/project data (metrics information) Statement of Risk Risk classification, Likelihood Consequence, Timeframe Risk prioritization Research, Watch (tracking requirements) Acceptance Rationale, Mitigation Plans Risk status reports on: Risks Risk Mitigation Plans Close or Accept Risks Invoke contingency plans Continue to track

12. Integrating All The Parts Into A Whole 12 Risk Management SOW SOO ConOps SOW SOO ConOps WBS Technical and Operational Requirements CWBS & CWBS Dictionary CWBS & CWBS Dictionary Integrated Master Plan (IMP) Integrated Master Plan (IMP) Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) Earned Value Management System (EVMS) Objective Status and Essential Views to support the proactive management processes needed to keep the program GREEN Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) Measures of Performance (MOP) Measures of Cost – Schedule Progress JROC Key Performance Parameters (KPP) JROC Key Performance Parameters (KPP) Program Specific Key Performance Parameters (KPP) Program Specific Key Performance Parameters (KPP) Technical Performance Measures (TPM) CWBS 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

13. 13 Let’s Revisit the Five Principles for Increasing the Probability of Program Success… Where are we going? How do we get there? Are there enough resources? What are impediments to progress? How do we measure progress? 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

14. 4+1 Critical Processes for Success 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop14 Capabilities, Requirements & Deliverables Program Architecture & Dependencies Work Planning and Sequencing Performance Measurement Baseline Programmatic & Technical Risk Management  Balanced Scorecard  Concept of Operations  Statement of Objectives  Integrated Master Plan (IMP)  Dependencies  Overlaps  Interfaces  Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)  Schedule margin to protect critical deliverables  Cost And Schedule Baseline  WBS  RAM  Resource Loaded IMS  Risk Registry  Risk Handling Plans  Contingency And Management Reserve  Requirements Traceability  Value Stream Mapping (VSM)  Work Packages  Planning Packages  Technical Performance Measures (TPM)  Risk Integrated With IMS  Risk Trending  Measures Of Effectiveness (MoE)  Design Structure Matrix (DSM)  Earned Value Management  Measures Of Performance (MoP)  Monte Carlo Simulation

15. 10 Practices The Support the 5 Processes and 5 Principles 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop15 Capabilities Drive Requirements Requirements are Fulfilled by Work Packages Work Packages Define Deliverables Measure Physical Percent Complete of Each WP Measure Physical Percent Complete of Each WP Perform Only Authorized Work Perform Only Authorized Work Earned Value Defines Progress Adjust EV for Technical Performance Measure Adjust EV for Technical Performance Measure Use Past Performance to Forecast Future Performance Use Past Performance to Forecast Future Performance 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 PMB Describes Work Sequence PMB Describes Work Sequence 4 4 9 9 Assess the capabilities being provided through the deliverables Fulfill the requirements through effort held in the Work Packages Produce deliverables from Work Packages Planned BCWS Physical % Complete WP’s contain deliverables that fulfill requirements Capabilities topology defines requirements flow down WP flow must describe the increasing maturity of the product or service Producing the deliverables in the planned sequence maintains the value stream to the customer

16. 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop16 ❶ ‒ Identify Needed Systems Capabilities – Define the Measures of Effectiveness (MoE) D EFINE C APABILITIES AS O PERATIONAL C ONCEPTS Partition system capabilities into classes of service within operational scenarios, identifying actors, processes, and data Connect capabilities to system requirements using sysML, or some modeling tool to reveal interdependencies and resolve conflicts Define Measures of Effectiveness (MoE) for these capabilities in units meaningful to the customer and connect each MOE to a Mission need statement Develop an Integrated Master Plan for the sequence of delivering the needed Capabilities D EFINE O PERATIONAL C ONCEPTS WITH S CENARIOS OR U SE C ASES Define scenarios for each system capability, and the measureable benefits to the program’s outcomes Connect these scenarios in a Value Stream map showing the sequence of work and the produced value Assess value flow through the map for each needed capability Identify capability mismatches and make corrections to improve overall value flow A SSESS N EEDS, C OST, A ND R ISK OF THE C APABILITY S IMULTANEOUSLY Assign costs to each system element using a value process model Assure risk, probabilistic cost and benefit performance attributes are defined Use cost, schedule, and technical performance probabilistic models to forecast potential risks to program performance D EFINE E XPLICIT, B ALANCED, A ND F EASIBLE A LTERNATIVES Make tradeoffs that connect cost, schedule, and technical performance in a single “trade space” model Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance are the raw materials for these tradeoffs ❷ ‒ Establish Requirements Baseline – D EFINE M EASURES O F P ERFORMANCE (M O P) P ERFORM F ACT F INDING Produce an overall statement of the problem in the operational context Develop the overall operational and technical; objectives of the target system through Measures of Performance (MoP) for the requirements Define the boundaries and interfaces of the target system G ATHER AND C LASSIFY THE R EQUIREMENTS Gather required operational capabilities, functional, nonfunctional, and environment requirements and design constraints Build a Top Down Capabilities and Functional decomposition of the requirements in a flow down tree using a requirements tool E VALUATE AND R ATIONALIZE R EQUIREMENTS Answer the question “why do we need this?” in terms of operational benefits Build a cost / benefit model using probabilistic assessments of all variables and dependencies For technical requirements, perform a risk assessment to the cost and schedule P RIORITIZE R EQUIREMENTS Determine the criticality for the functions for the system’s mission Determine tradeoff relations for all requirements to be used when option decision are made For technical items, prioritize the cost and dependencies I NTEGRATE AND V ALIDATE R EQUIREMENTS Address completeness of requirements by removing all TBD items Validate the requirements agree and are traceable to capabilities, goals, and the mission Resolve any requirement inconsistencies and conflicts

17. 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop17 ❸ ‒ E STABLISH P ERFORMANCE M EASUREMENT B ASELINE – D EFINE T ECHNICAL P ERFORMANCE M EASURES (TPM) D ECOMPOSE R EQUIREMENTS INTO W ORK P ACKAGES AND P LANNING P ACKAGES Decompose the program scope into a product based Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Decompose the WBS into Work Packages describing the production of all deliverables and processes traceable to the requirements A SSIGN A CCOUNTABILITY FOR THE D ELIVERABLES FROM EACH W ORK P ACKAGE Assign accountability for Work Packages to a named owner for the management of resource allocation, cost baseline, and technical delivery A RRANGE W ORK P ACKAGES IN A L OGICAL O RDER Arrange Work Packages in a network with defined deliverables, milestones, internal and external dependencies, appropriate schedule and cost margin D EVELOP THE B UDGETED C OST FOR W ORK S CHEDULED (BCWS) FOR EACH W ORK P ACKAGE AND P LANNING P ACKAGE Develop a time ‒ phased Budgeted Cost for Work Scheduled (BCWS) for labor and material costs in each Work Package Develop a time ‒ phased Budgeted Cost for Work Scheduled (BCWS) for the program as a whole Assure proper resource allocations can be met and budget profiles match expectations of the program sponsor A SSIGN W ORK P ACKAGE M EASURES OF P ERFORMANCE (M O P), K EY P ERFORMANCE P ARAMETERS (KPP), AND T ECHNICAL P ERFORMANCE M EASURES (TPM) Assign an objective Measure of Performance (MoP) for each critical Work Package deliverable Trace critical deliverables to the Measure of Effectiveness (MoE) defined in the Capabilities baseline Summarize these Measures of Performance (MoP) and Measures of Effectiveness (MoE) for the program as a whole Assign measures of Physical Percent Complete for each Work Package Assign measures of Physical Percent Complete for the program as a whole S ET THE P ERFORMANCE M EASUREMENT B ASELINE (PMB) Establish a Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) used to forecast Work Package and Program ongoing and completion cost and schedule metrics ❹ ‒ Execute the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) – Maintain Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance P ERFORM A UTHORIZED W ORK IN THE P LANNED S EQUENCE Using the Work Package sequencing, release work to be performed as planned With the RACI based RAM, the Accountable delivery manager guides the development of the products or service for each Work Package A CCUMULATE AND R EPORT W ORK P ACKAGE P HYSICAL P ERFORMANCE Using Physical Percent complete or Apportioned Milestones, capture the measures of “progress to plan” for each Work Package Report the Physical Percent Complete in a centralized system for each Work Package and he program as a whole A NALYZE W ORK P ACKAGE P ERFORMANCE Compare the Actual Percent Complete against the Planned Percent Complete for each period of performance Construct cost and schedule performance indices from this information and the Physical Percent Complete measures T AKE C ORRECTIVE M ANAGEMENT A CTION FOR ANY V ARIANCE IN W ORK P ACKAGE P ERFORMANCE With the cost and schedule performance indices, construct a forecast of future performance of cost, schedule, and technical performance compliance Take management actions for any Work Packages not performing as planned M AINTAIN P ERFORMANCE M EASUREMENT B ASELINE ’ S I NTEGRITY Record past performance based on Work Package completion criteria Record previous future performance estimates in a historical database Forecast future performance against the Performance Measurement Baseline Report the future performance estimate to the program stakeholders

18. ❺ ‒ Continuous Risk Management Processes and Practices 18 Technical Risk Management Tracking and Controlling Performance Deviations Deliberating and recommending a decision alternative Risk analysis of decision alternatives, performing trade studies and ranking Proposing and/or identifying decision alternatives Formulation of objectives Hierarchy and Technical Performance Measures Stakeholder expectations, requirements definition and management Design solutions, technical planning Design solution, technical planning, and decision analysis Technical planning and decision analysis Decision analysis, lessons learned, knowledge management Identify Analyze Plan Track Control Decide and implement decision alternatives Plan Communicate 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop

19. Planning and Scheduling Hierarchy 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop19 IMS IMP Describes how the capabilities will be delivered and how these capabilities will be recognized IMP Describes how the capabilities will be delivered and how these capabilities will be recognized Supplemental Schedules Work Packages and Tasks Criteria Accomplishment Events Milestones Events Milestones

20. Integrating Planning and Scheduling is the 1 st Step to Success 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop20 Program Events Define the availability of a Capability at a point in time. Accomplishments Represent requirements that enable Capabilities. Criteria Represent outcomes of Work Packages that deliver the Requirements. Work Package Work Package Work Package Work Package Work package Structure of a Performance–Based Plan  Each Event or Milestone represents the availability of one or more capabilities.  The presence of these capabilities is measured by the Accomplishments and their Criteria.  Accomplishments are the pre–conditions for the maturity assessment of the product or service at each Event or Milestone.  Performance of the work activities, Work Packages, Criteria, Accomplishments, and Events or Milestones is measured in units of “physical percent complete.” Structure of a Performance–Based Plan  Each Event or Milestone represents the availability of one or more capabilities.  The presence of these capabilities is measured by the Accomplishments and their Criteria.  Accomplishments are the pre–conditions for the maturity assessment of the product or service at each Event or Milestone.  Performance of the work activities, Work Packages, Criteria, Accomplishments, and Events or Milestones is measured in units of “physical percent complete.”

21. The question asked of every parent and every Program Manager is … Are We There Yet? 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop21

22. 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop22 Measuring Physical Percent Complete Product Effectiveness ‒ a measure of success that is closely related to the achievement of the mission or operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions. † Product Performance ‒ a physical or functional attribute relating to the system’s operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions. † † www.acqnotes.comwww.acqnotes.com Means Assessing Compliance With Planned Attributes Of Each Deliverable Means Assessing Compliance With Planned Attributes Of Each Deliverable

23. 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop23 Measuring Physical Percent Complete Means Assessing Compliance With Planned Attributes Of Each Deliverable Means Assessing Compliance With Planned Attributes Of Each Deliverable Key Performance Parameters ‒ are capabilities or characteristic so significant that failure to meet the parameter can be cause for reevaluation, reassessing, or termination of the program. † Technical Performance Measures ‒ an attribute that determines how well a system or system element is satisfying, or expected to satisfy, a technical requirement or goal. † † www.acqnotes.comwww.acqnotes.com

24. Which Means Earned Value Management is Very Simple 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop24 BCWP = BCWS × Physical Percent Complete Measured with short intervals to answer the question … How Long Are We Willing To Wait Before We Find Out We Are Late Measured with short intervals to answer the question … How Long Are We Willing To Wait Before We Find Out We Are Late The answer should be … Short enough to take corrective actions to The answer should be … Short enough to take corrective actions to Keep the Program GREEN

25. 29 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop25 Five Immutable Principles of Program Success 1.What does Done Look Like? Ten Practices Implementing the Five Processes, supporting the Five Principles 2.What’s the Plan to Reach Done? 1. Capabilities Drive Requirements 2. Requirements Identify Deliverables 3. Work Packages Produce Deliverables 4. Master Schedule Sequences Deliverables 5. Progress Measured As Physical Percent Complete 6. Work Authorization Assures Proper Sequencing 7. Earned Value Identifies Performance 8. Compliance With Technical Performance Measures Adjust EV 9. Performance Feedback Adjusts Work Sequencing 10. Future Performance Based On TCPI 3.What Resources are needed to reach Done? 4.What Risks are encountered on the way to Done? 5.What are the Units of Measure of progress to plan? Five Processes Supporting the Five Principles 1.Identify Needed Capabilities Define Capabilities As Operational Concepts ✓ Define Operational Concepts As Scenarios Or Use Cases ✓ ✓ Simultaneously Assess – Needs, Costs And Risks Of Capabilities ✓✓ Define Explicit, Balanced, And Feasible Alternatives ✓✓✓✓✓✓✓ 2.Establish Technical, Schedule, and Cost Requirements Perform Fact Finding For Technical, Cost, Schedule Baseline ✓✓ Gather And Classify Requirements ✓ Evaluate And Rationalize Requirements ✓✓✓ Prioritize Requirements Using Risk Adjusted Measures ✓ Integrate And Validate Requirements ✓✓✓✓ 3.Establish Performance Measurement Baseline to produce products that meet the project requirements Decompose Work Packages And Planning Packages ✓✓✓ Assign Accountability For The Deliverables ✓✓ Arrange Work Packages In Logical Order ✓✓✓ Assign Work Package Measures Of Performance ✓✓ Develop BCWS For Work Packages ✓✓ Set The Performance Measurement Baseline ✓✓✓✓ 4.Execute Performance Measurement Baseline Perform The Authorized Work In The Planned Order ✓✓✓ Accumulate And Report Work Package Performance ✓✓✓ Take Corrective Actions To Stay On Plan ✓✓ Maintain The Performance Measurement Baseline ✓✓ 5.Perform Continuous Risk Management Identify Technical And Programmatic Risks ✓✓✓✓ Analyze Risks ✓✓ Plan And Execute The Risk Handling Strategies ✓✓✓ Track Risk Handling Activities ✓✓✓✓ Control Or Accept Risks ✓✓

26. Questions? 2629 th Annual International Integrated Program Management Workshop