1. NROW XVII & CSTAR VI Collaboration Project
High Wind EVENTS IN Western New York: AN EXPANDED STUDY AND DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIAL IMPACT TABLES
Hurricane Force Wind Gust to 80 mph
Homes and vehicles damaged by falling trees
Two tractor trailers blown over on the NYS Thruway
100,000 lost power
Est 2.1M in damages
Temp dropped to -8C / 18F!
NROW XVII & CSTAR VI Collaboration Project
Shawn Smith
General Forecaster
NWS Buffalo, NY

2. High Wind Events in the Great Lakes
Result from deepening cyclones tracking across the Great Lakes “Great Lakes Cutters”
Common occurrence from late Fall through early Spring (Angel and Isard 1998)
Frequently cause widespread infrastructure and property damage
NWS BUF experiences highest frequency of all Great Lakes offices based on tally of warnings/advisories

3. Previous Buffalo High Wind Study
Niziol and Paone (2000) A Climatology of Non-convective High Wind Events in Western New York
52 Events (50+ kts KBUF) from
Identified:
Seasonality
Prevailing Wind Direction
Storm Track
Composites of MSLP, 850mb Height and Temp and 500mb Heights
Findings set the foundation for understanding high winds impacting WNY and are still widely used by forecasters today

4. What’s new with this expanded study?
27 updated cases from cold seasons of Nov 2004-Apr 2014 with expanded coverage area (Entire CWA)
Breakdown of high wind events
11 Widespread (12+ zones)
16 Limited events (<12 zones)
Addition of 35 Advisory-only events to set low threshold
New storm track chart
New NARR composite charts – 500 hPa Heights, MSLP and 850 hPa winds
New Potential Impact Tables
CSTAR Collaboration Project with goal of expanding this study to other ER Offices

5. Cyclone Tracks
500 miles

6. Comparison of Impact Area for Widespread vs Limited Event
Widespread Event (12+ of 17 zones)
Limited Event (Less than 12 zones)
*Reports from NWS Storm Data with estimated gusts based on damage reports

7. 500 hPa Composites for Pattern Recognition
Weak signal here.
Widespread Events composite matches very close to Niziol composites.
Amplifying and negatively tilting 500hPa trough during and after event.
Limited Events and Advisory composites a bit weaker.
12h Before
At Onset
12h After
Widespread
Events
Limited
Events
Advisory
Events
Amplifying and negatively tilting 500mb trough during and after event.
Limited Events and Advisory composites a bit weaker.
Niziol/Paone
Events

8. MSLP Composites for Pattern Recognition
Clear signal from MSLP composites.
Widespread event composites much deeper than Niziol composites at onset time. (closer to Limited composites)
Widespread event composites show deepening through the entire event, where others show weakening from onset to h+12.
Highlights the need for a continually deepening surface low tracking northwest of Buffalo
12h Before
At Onset
12h After
Widespread
Events
Limited
Events
Widespread event composites much deeper than Niziol composites at onset time. (closer to Limited composites)
Widespread event composites show deepening through the entire event, where Niziol composites, Limited and Advisory Events show weakening from onset to h+12.
Advisory composites the weakest, showing a deeper MSLP scale from Widespread events to Advisory events.
All composites show track of the cyclone is northwest of BUF CWA.
Advisory
Events
Niziol/Paone
Events

9. 850 hPa Composites for Pattern Recognition
A strong signal shows up when comparing 850 hPa wind composites.
Widespread Events show maintenance of strong jet thru event, where others show weakening from onset to h+12.
Advisory composites weakest, showing a 850hPa jet scale down from Widespread - Advisory
Highlights the need for a strong and persistent 850 hPa jet tracking across WNY as key requirement for widespread high wind event.
12h Before
At Onset
12h After
Widespread
Events
m/s (39 – 78 kts) VS
Limited
Events
Advisory
Events
Widespread Event composites much stronger than Niziol composites (which again fit closer to Limited composites)
Widespread Event composites show maintenance of strong jet throughout the event, where Niziol composites, Limited and Advisory Events show weakening from onset to h+12.
Advisory composites the weakest, showing a 850mb jet scale down from Widespread Events to Advisory events.
Niziol/Paone
Events

10. Key requirements for High Wind
Based on results of new composites we know that:
Need a deepening low tracking northwest of Buffalo
Need a strong an persistent jet tracking over WNY
This led to the creation of…

11. High Wind Potential Impact Tables
MSLP and 850hPa wind speed tables can detect an impact level of an expected wind event
Quick way of assessing impact potential of any wind event *after determining high winds are expected
Designed to help increase forecaster confidence for Watch/Warning/Advisory decision making

12. How were tables created?
Statistical summaries were compiled from study cases

13. Box and Whisker Charts for Study
Max
+1SD
Mean
-1SD
Min
The deeper the Low, The stronger the 850 hPa jet!
Note some overlap in the mid range

14. Development of tables from event cases (850 hPa winds example)
*Note some overlap

15. Tables available on local intranet page and in AWIPS
*Mixed categories based on overlap

16. So how do we know these tables work? Test them against post-events
7 Limited Events and 11 Advisory Events
No Widespread Events occurred cold seasons

17. Results of Testing Tables on 2014-2016 Events

18. Future Work
Further testing is planned for Cold Season and potentially pre-study events
Interested in table performance results during Widespread Events. Feel the accuracy should improve with a larger dataset
Expansion of the study beyond the Buffalo CWA as part of CSTAR IV

19. Questions?