1. Keynote
Eric Newell
Stoneridge Software

2. Today’s Topic Today I want to talk about luck What is luck?
Psychologist Richard Wiseman studied this in the early 2000 where he studied 400 people who considered themselves very lucky or very unlucky
He found that while there is “chance” – “lucky people generate their own good fortune”
I want to tell a story about how to make your own luck

3. For this story, we are going to venture here

4. Antarctica & South Pole
I want to talk about Antarctica – it’s way down there on the map
As of 1900, no one had ever been to the south or north pole
Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration
1902 Discovery Expedition – included Robert Scott
1907 Ernest Shackleton makes it within 112 miles of the South Pole
1908 Frederick Cook and 1909 Robert Peary reach the North Pole

5. The Race to the South Pole (1910)
Robert Scott
Roald Amundsen
Scott’s background
Made it to 82 degrees in 1902, about 530 miles from the pole (Discovery Expedition) – came back a national hero, promoted to Commander of the Royal Victorian Order, Shackleton had gone with him
43 years old at the time of journey
British Royal Navy officer
Amunden’s background
Grew up in a family of fishermen – promised his mom he’d be a doctor, but changed his mind when she died when he was 21
In 1888, inspired by Norwegian explorer’s journey across Greenland
In 1899 joined a Belgian Antarctic expedition – first expedition to winter in Antarctica – locked in sea ice at 70 degrees, survived by eating fresh meat which had Vitamin C
In 1903, Led first expedition through Canada’s northwest passage
Wanted to go to the North Pole but Peary got their first
39 year old

6. Getting to Antarctica Set off for Antarctica on June 15 1910
Scott
Amundsen
Set off for Antarctica on June
Much publicized departure
Arrived in Antarctica at McMurdo Sound (Ross Island) in early October
Originally planned an expedition to the North Pole - changed his plans and didn’t tell his crew until mid-1910
Left Norway on Aug
Informed Scott of change of plans on Sep 9
Arrived at the Bay of Whales on Jan

7. Expedition Plan Variable Scott Amundsen Starting Point
McMurdo Sound – modeled off Shackleton’s voyage
Bay of Whales – never been tried as a port before
Crew
16 men
5 men
Animals
23 dogs, 10 ponies
52 dogs
Sledges
13 plus 2 motorized 4
Depots 10 7
Path modeled off Shackleton’s voyage in 1907 – winter camp on Ross Island
Crew: 16 men
Animals: 23 dogs, 10 ponies
Sledges: 13 plus 2 motor sledges
Developed new path with winter camp at Bay of Whales
Crew: 5 men
Animals: 52 dogs
Sledges: 4

8. And they’re off…
Amundsen
Scott
Worried of reports of Scott’s motorized sledges, wanted to leave as early as possible
Tried to leave in late Sep – ran into bad winter weather and turned around
Departed on Oct 20
Distance to Pole – 640 miles
Motor party set out on Oct 24
Main group (including Scott) on Nov 1
Distance to Pole – 700 miles

9. Approaching the Glacier
Trek across the ice shelf – no elevation
Once you reach mainland – severe elevation change
Need to climb a glacier

10. Who Got There First?
"Never has a man achieved a goal so diametrically opposed to his wishes. The area around the North Pole—devil take it—had fascinated me since childhood, and now here I was at the South Pole. Could anything be more crazy”
On December 14, 1911 – Amundsen and his 4 men reached the south pole – 90 degrees
Actually spent three days there

11. What about Scott? Scott arrived at the Pole on January 17, 1912
He found a Norwegian flag on top of a tent & a letter from Amundsen
He wrote in his diary: “This is an awful place and terrible enough for us to have laboured to it without the reward of priority”
However, “Now for a desperate struggle to get the news through first. I wonder if we can do it”
He thought he could get some notoriety if he could be the first one back

12. The Road Back - Amundsen Scott
Placed black flags every 3 miles to mark his path back
Placed depots along the way for food and supplies
Marched efficiently back over the terrain
Arrived back at base camp precisely on schedule, on Jan
Made good progress the first 3 weeks on the way back
Started to suffer due to injuries and frostbite and one member died on Feb 17
Three issues plagued them – drop in temperature, less supplies in depots than needed and no intercepting party

13. March 29, 1912 – death of the remaining Scott party – Henry Bowers & Edward Wilson
Perished due to starvation

15. Comparing the Two Approaches
In their first 34 days, each had exactly the same ratio of good to bad weather days – 56%
Variable
Scott
Amundsen
Differences
Starting Point
McMurdo Sound – modeled off Shackleton’s voyage
Bay of Whales – never been tried as a port before
Amundsen had a shorter distance and more time on the ice shelf
Crew
16 men
5 men
Scott ended up with 5 proceeding past the glacier
Animals
23 dogs, 10 ponies
52 dogs
The ponies couldn’t survive in the cold
Sledges
13 plus 2 motorized 4
The motorized sledges couldn’t operate in the cold
Depots 10 7
Amundsen’s depots were well planned; Scott’s were not

16. Sledges Man-Hauling Clothing Focus Daily rhythm Other Differences
Amundsen had craftsman create his own skis for the sledges so they can move faster; Amundsen’s sledges were considerably lighter
Scott’s men had to “man-haul” the sledges instead of having them pulled by dogs
Amundsen’s men wore animal skins – something he learned from many years with the eskimos
Scott had a dual mission to gather meteorological data which cost his time and distracted his focus
Amundsen planned to move 5-6 hours per day; Scott varied based on weather but expected 9 hours per day on good weather days

17. Lessons from the Race for Business
Don’t send a dog expert to get ponies
If something is critical, hire an expert
Go live with the eskimos
Immerse yourself in information and experiences
Don’t run motorized sledges in the cold
Test out a new idea in its environment before anointing it the ultimate solution
Don’t set a dog expert to get ponies -
Get 60 miles closer – don’t always accept the status quo; do your research and find a better way
Go to the eskimos – listen to the experts
Mechanical sledges – don’t try untested experiments
Set your flags – document what you’ve done so you can retrace your path later
Set your black flags along your route
Document what you’ve done so you can retrace your path later

18. What does this teach us about luck?
“I may say that this is the greatest factor—the way in which the expedition is equipped—the way in which every difficulty is foreseen, and precautions taken for meeting or avoiding it. Victory awaits him who has everything in order — luck, people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called bad luck.” Roald Amundsen

19. How to Make Your Own Luck
Maximize Your Chance Opportunities
Listen to Your Hunches
Expect Good Fortune
Turn Bad Luck to Good
According to Dr. Wiseman, there are 4 ways people can be “lucky”
Maximize – the more opportunities you notice and take chances on, the more luck you’ll get
Listen to lucky hunches – follow your gut – a story of a business owner hearing a lady say “Mr. Buffett” in NY. He asked her if it were Warren Buffett and she said it was – he ultimately ended up selling his company for a huge profit
Luck becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy
If you have bad luck, imagine how it could be worse – CEO friend said the good news was his dog had mouth cancer – was able to take him to a specialist who could help him

20. How are you going to make your own luck?

21. Interesting Facts about the South Pole
Highest Recorded Temperature: 9.9° F
Lowest Recorded Temperature: -117° F
Not the magnetic pole (in the ocean)
About 150 people during the summer; 45 in the winter
Communication done via satellite telephones and Internet (100k max size)
Oldest person to visit the South Pole: Buzz Aldrin
The sun rises and sets only once per year
There is no solar time or time zone (use New Zealand time)

22. Learn more The Last Place on Earth Roald Amundsen on Wikipedia
Race to the South Pole (Discovery Channel)
The South Pole by Amundsen
Antarctica – a Frozen History