1. Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile M. Palme, PhD Assistant Professor, School of Architecture Catholic University of the North

2. Introduction and methodology Case of study: Antofagasta
This presentation
Introduction and methodology
Case of study: Antofagasta
IPCC estimations for Chile
Test building
Results
Conclusions
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

3. Built environment
amplifies
affects
Climate change

4. G. Bateson, Steps to an Ecology of Mind (1972)
Double bind:
“Communicative situation in which a person receives contradictory information”
G. Bateson, Steps to an Ecology of Mind (1972)
What does it mean a double bind situation for building sector?
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

5. In cold climates global warming will reduce heating demand of buildings without increase cooling demand. In this case the effect is self-decreasing and building energy efficiency policies are consistent with global warming reduction.
In arid climates and in temperate climates, heating demand will reduce but cooling demand will increase. In this case, a double bind relationship could appear: energy policies are not consistent with final objective.
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

6. Central idea of this work is that thermal heating demand that buildings have nowadays, in many climates will change to cooling demand under effect of global heating and other driving forces (extreme urbanization and heat island effect for example).
A similar change has to be taken in to account if we are planning to introduce building energy certification, like in the case of Chile.
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

7. Building energy certification introduced in Chile in 2013 only considers heating demand and related primary energy consumption and generated emissions.
This fact founds on observation that northern cities of the Country use natural ventilation to cool all kind of buildings.
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

8. Questions:
In arid climates, and especially in the case of Antofagasta, are buildings in a “double bind” situation?
Are the energy efficiency government policies in Chile consistent with the future scenarios for all the country?
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

9. Methodology:
This research work uses IPCC simulation data for future scenarios (HadCM3) and Climate Change Weather World File Generator software developed by CIBSE researchers in UK to estimate future thermal demand of buildings in arid regions.
However, conceptual result could be applied to other climate situations, like Mediterranean climates.
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

10. A reference building is selected and tested
Research steps:
IPCC data are obtained for 2050 and 2080 considering scenarios A1F, A2 and B1.
CIBSE morphing method is used to generate weather hourly data. Software is available online: (accessed on 29 May 2014).
A reference building is selected and tested
Heating and cooling demand are compared and primary energy and emissions are estimated in each case
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

11. Antofagasta location
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

12. Thermal inertia due to Pacific Ocean Prevailing winds from the Sea
Antofagasta climate
Arid climate
Thermal inertia due to Pacific Ocean
Prevailing winds from the Sea
Extreme incoming solar radiation
Average temperature 20 °C
Low day-night and seasonal temperature oscillations
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

13. Antofagasta climate
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

14. Antofagasta climate
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

15. IPCC scenarios
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

16. IPCC projection for Chile
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

17. IPCC projection for Chile
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

18. Morphing strategy (temperatures)
Stretch
Shift
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

19. Test building
Building’s parameters
Occupancy = 4 people
Clo = 1 (typical all-season jacket)
Met = 1 (58 W, sedentary activity)
U windows (W/m²C) = 5
U walls (W/m²C) = 3
Solar factor (%) = 0,85
U roof (W/m²C) = 0,8
Dim = 7 x 4,2 x 2,4 m
Air changes per hour = 0,5
Thermostat range = °C
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

20. Antofagasta, 2014
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

21. Antofagasta, 2050, A2 scenario
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

22. Antofagasta, 2080, A2 scenario
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

23. Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year)
Results A2 scenario
Thermal demand
(kWh/m2 year)
Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year)
CO2 emissions
(kg/m2 year)
heating
cooling
total
2013
18.4
0.0
20.9
4.5
2050 A2
1.5
13.9
15.4
1.7
15.3
17.0
0.4
5.0
5.4
2080 A2
39.2
43.2
14.1
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

24. Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year)
Results A1FI scenario
Thermal demand
(kWh/m2 year)
Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year)
CO2 emissions
(kg/m2 year)
heating
cooling
total
2013
18.4
0.0
20.9
4.5
2050 A1FI
0.5
24.1
24.6
0.6
26.5
27.1
0.1
7.9
8.0
2080 A1FI
53.2
58.5
17.4
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

25. Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year)
Results B1 scenario
Thermal demand
(kWh/m2 year)
Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year)
CO2 emissions
(kg/m2 year)
heating
cooling
total
2013
18.4
0.0
20.9
4.5
2050 B1
2.3
9.0
11.3
2.6
9.9
12.5
0.5
2.9
3.4
2080 B1
1.8
17.3
19.1
2.0
19.0
21.0
0.4
5.6
6.0
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

26. Results comparison
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

27. Antofagasta is possibly taken into a double bind situation:
Conclusions
In arid climates, and especially in the case of Antofagasta, are buildings in a “double bind” situation?
Antofagasta is possibly taken into a double bind situation:
Global warming is affecting the built environment and a shift between heating and cooling demand is probable.
People in Antofagasta, due to economic growth of the city, will respond to hotter environment by cooling their residencies using electrical systems.
Urban Heat Island effect and tall constructions in the first coast line could improve the shift between heating and cooling.
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

28. Conclusions
2. Are the energy efficiency government policies in Chile consistent with the future scenarios for all the country?
Energy certification system proposed by the Government has to be modified to consider northern regions risks due to climate change.
In many climates the same phenomenon could happen: it has to be notice that emissions increase estimated in Antofagasta case is very high: 300% in A2 and 400% in A1FI by 2080
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

29. References
Palme M., Isalgué A., Coch H. (2013) Avoiding the Possible Impact of Climate Change on the Built Environment: The Importance of the Building's Energy Robustness. Buildings 3(1), pp
Palme M., Guerra J. (2013) A critical assessment and projection of urban vertical growth in Antofagasta, Chile. Sustainability 5(7), pp
Belcher SE, Hacker JN, Powell DS. (2005) Constructing design weather data for future climates. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 26 (1), pp
Jentsch M.F., Bahaj A.S. and James P.A.B. (2008) Climate change future proofing of buildings – Generation and assessment of building simulation weather files. Energy and Buildings 40 (12), pp
Chilean Government (2013) Adaptation to climate change Report.
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

30. Materials Engineer, PhD in Architecture School of Architecture UCN
Thank You
Massimo Palme
Materials Engineer, PhD in Architecture School of Architecture UCN
Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile