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RO-HU-AT - a pilot project for incremental capacity

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Presentation on theme: "RO-HU-AT - a pilot project for incremental capacity"— Presentation transcript:

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2 RO-HU-AT - a pilot project for incremental capacity
GRI SEE 13 December 2016, Bucharest RO-HU-AT - a pilot project for incremental capacity How to develop functioning markets? Infrastructure needs and initiatives for Europe RO-HU-AT - a key project for Central and South-East Europe

3 Starting Point 2014 Network users indicated non-binding demand for
long term transportation services potential natural gas supplies originating from an upstream project initiative in the Black Sea from Romania (RO) via/to Hungary (HU) and further on to Austria (AT)

4 Physical gas flows in the region

5 PCI ROHUAT Expansion and refurbishment of the existing gas transportation systems

6 New gas route - ROHUAT

7 Incremental capacity process
To coordinate the process and to find suitable solutions in the framework of the incremental capacity Regulatory Authorities To express the need for new infrastructure To support the initiative to give valuable inputs Network users TSOs To prepare the open season/ incremental process To plan the necessary construction works

8 The following 3 allocation methods have been consulted
Market survey A market survey on different capacity allocation methods was conducted by the TSOs in February 2016 The following 3 allocation methods have been consulted 13 responses form market participants

9 Method 1 Market integration
Ascending clock auction algorithm according to Art. 17 of the CAM NC Bundled capacity offered as single years in the auctions

10 Allocation rule core logic:
Market integration Method 2 3 allocation rounds foreseen Allocation rule core logic: Round 1: 15 year commitment for both IPs Round 2: 1 year commitments for both IPs Round 3: 1 year commitments for single IPs (same as Mechanism 1) Round 1 Round 2

11 preferred option according to outcome of market survey
Market integration Method 3 Bundled capacity offered as single years in the auctions (same as Mechanism 1) If demand > offer, capacities shall be allocated on the basis of the highest individual bidder commitment in all auctions conducted throughout the period of 15 years at IP Csanádpalota and IP Mosonmagyaróvár Allocation rule core logic: NU contribution = price IP1 * demanded capacity IP1 * number of years + price IP2 * demanded capacity IP2 * number of years Method 3 preferred option according to outcome of market survey

12 Main milestones OS consultation phase

13 Main phases of the Binding OS
Return countersigned contract to participants Confirmation customers registration by TSOs Pubblication of the first results by TSO Publication of the final results Confirmation of the final results Customer registration announcement of the biding Open Season Procedure Operational start-up 1 October 2022 Bid revision II Economic test II Bid revision I Economic test I Submission of bids Customer registration Consultation phase

14 Interconnection points
Relevant interconnection points (IP) RO/HU Csanádpalota (IP1) in both directions HU/AT Mosonmagyaróvár (IP2) just in Austrian direction

15 Capacity products & tariffs

16 Capacity products & tariffs

17 Examples Routes & Tariffs

18 Tariffs overview (in local currency)
18 CZK/kWh/h/y 3,922 €/kWh/h/y 3,944 €/kWh/h/y 32,8 $/1000 m3 0,77 €/kWh/h/y 2,6 €/kWh/h/y 2,69 % m3 VTP 4,46 €/kWh/h/y 0,77 €/kWh/h/y 3,31 €/kWh/h/y 631,25 HUF/kWh/h/y 631,25 HUF/kWh/h/y 98,72 HUF/MWh 2539,15 HUF/kWh/h/y 15,873 Lei/MWh/h 12,47 $/1000 m3 ? 4,31 Lei/MWh 1,81 Lei/MWh/h ? 1,84 Lei/MWh/h

19 Tariffs overview (in Euro)
0,669 €/kWh/h/y 3,922 €/kWh/h/y 3,944 €/kWh/h/y 23,55 €/kWh/h/y 0,45 €/MWh VTP 0,77 €/kWh/h/y 2,6 €/kWh/h/y 4,46 €/kWh/h/y 0,77 €/kWh/h/y 3,31 €/kWh/h/y 2,016 €/kWh/h/y 0,296 €/MWh 2,016 €/kWh/h/y 0,296 €/MWh 8,111 €/kWh/h/y 3,535 €/kWh/h/y 0,96 €/MWh 9,17 €/kWh/h/y ? 1,58 €/kWh/h ? 0,96 €/MWh 1,82 €/kWh/h/y

20 Possible routs to VTP AT
ROHUAT

21 Possible routs to VTP AT
RO HU SK AT VTP

22 Possible routs to VTP AT
RO UA SK AT VTP

23 Transportation cost different routs to VTP AT

24 Ranking of Bids results
Examples Ranking of Bids results

25 Bid results with overbooking
fill or kill

26 Bid results without overbooking
fill or kill

27 Examples Austrian side
Economic test

28 Austrian coordinated network development plan 2017-2026

29 Determination of the economic viability (Austrian side)
The economic tests (Economic Test I and Economic Test II) for incremental capacity at the entry point Mosonmagyaróvár are based on the following parameters: PVAR = EUR f = 0.75 PVUC ≥ EUR The economic test will be positive if the value of binding commitments of network users is equal to or higher than EUR. As the allocation of all incremental capacity at the reference price (i.e €/kWh/h/y) would not generate sufficient revenues for a positive economic test outcome, a mandatory minimum premium (i.e €/kWh/h/y) (supplement) is applied for the allocation of the incremental capacity. The mandatory minimum supplement has been calculated based on the assumption of kWh/h/y minimum booked incremental capacity for 15 years in a row.

30 Determination of the economical viability
Conditions for the calculation of the mandatory minimum premium: 30% of the technical capacity flat booked for 15 years 25% of the total costs socialized on existing IPs

31 Determination of the economical viability
base case: generated revenues

32 Determination of the economical viability
base case: generated revenues

33 Determination of the economical viability
Tariff composition for the base case

34 Negative economic test

35 Negative economic test
to be reallocated to top of the initial mandatory premium

36 Negative economic test
Increasing of the minimum mandatory premium part of the tariff ∆ +1,64

37 Positive economic test

38 Positive economic test
to be subtracted from the initial mandatory premium

39 Positive economic test
decreasing of the minimum mandatory premium part of the tariff ∆−𝟎,𝟖𝟗𝟐

40 Overall economic tests
The project will be realized if all the 4 economic tests in direction RO -> VTP AT will be positive the 2 economic tests at the IP Csanadpalota will be positive

41  alessandro.ischia@e-control.at  www.e-control.at
Contact

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43 Open season platform?

44 Main phases of of the Binding OS
Milestone Date Consultation Phase Announcement of the Binding Open Season Procedure Customer Registration Confirmation Customer Registration (TSOs) by Submission of bids Economic Test I Bid revision I Publication of first results (TSOs) Confirmation of final results (Participants) Economic Test II Bid revision II Publication of the final results (TSOs) Return countersigned contract to Participants

45 Incremental process time line
Execution of the open season Definition of the „rule book“ of the open season Market survey on different capacity allocation methods was conducted by the TSOs in February 2016, Project development TSO coordination PCI 6.24 capacity of 4,4 bcm is expected to be available at latest in 2022 Upstream project initiative 2015 Q1 2016 Q4 2016 Q1-Q2 2017 2014 Timeline

46 Next steps to provide tariffs applying the new methodology acc. to TAR NC by March 2017 “Rule book” prepared by TSOs Open season to be carried out in 2017 in parallel to the yearly auction in accordance with the CAM-auction calendar put into operation 2nd phase (4.4 bcm/y) depending on when the FID will be taken, latest for 2022

47 Possible routs to VTP AT


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