The Connected Consumer Survey 2012

The Connected Consumer Survey 2012
December 2011 Martin Scott

Contents Executive summary Recommendations Recommendations [1]
Slide no. Slide no. Executive summary Recommendations Recommendations [1] Recommendations [2] Introduction Denmark France Germany Poland Spain UK USA Results Results: Devices, consumers’ time and the evolving connected consumer Service providers still hold a lot of power: the amount of time that consumers spend connected is increasing The increasing penetration rate of connected devices will drive change in consumers’ service usage Tariff reductions have countered the increasing complexity of connectivity and, as a result, reduced the need for multiple SIMs Results: Mobile broadband – primarily an additive service and churn continues to be an issue Customers are in little doubt that fixed broadband is superior to mobile broadband Mobile broadband is complementary to fixed broadband in Western markets, and this is unlikely to change Service providers are struggling to retain mobile broadband customers Results: Fixed broadband – customer retention is tied to quality of experience Consumers reward a high fixed broadband quality of experience and are becoming more likely to abandon unsatisfactory providers The most important factor for fixed broadband is not speed, reliability or even price – it is customer service Fixed broadband intention to churn is broadly declining, except in Spain Customer priorities change throughout their ‘customer lifetime’, and the relative importance of price and access speed is also shifting Results: Voice – call volume substitution and cannibalisation are not one-directional The general assumption is that fixed voice will migrate to mobile, but the market dynamics are not that simple Longer contracts may have had only a short-term effect on mobile handset churn rates Is the mobile voice market at risk of cannibalisation from OTT players and, if so, what should MNOs do?

Contents Slide no. More than 67% of mobile users take their handset abroad, but usage will change significantly as roaming tariffs decline towards national rates Results: Mobile content and devices – focus on selling the underlying data connectivity A large percentage of consumers are confused about network generations and must be educated about the benefits of LTE and 4G Almost half of non-smartphone users do not feel that they have a motivation to upgrade to a smartphone Operators should use mobile content and apps to encourage adoption of mobile data services – any direct revenue is merely an added bonus Results: TV and video consumption – no easy targets for new business, despite market evolution OTT services are unlikely to change the pay-TV market Video viewing habits on tablets differ from those on TV sets or PCs The challenge of gaining new pay-TV customers: there is no ‘low- hanging fruit’ Methodology About the author and Analysys Mason About the author About Analysys Mason Research from Analysys Mason Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures Figure 1: Selected statistics from the Connected Consumer Survey 2012 Figure 2: Survey respondents’ demographic data: Denmark Figure 3: Survey respondents’ demographic data: France Figure 4: Survey respondents’ demographic data: Germany Figure 5: Survey respondents’ demographic data: Poland Figure 6: Survey respondents’ demographic data: Spain Figure 7: Survey respondents’ demographic data: UK Figure 8: Survey respondents’ demographic data: USA Figure 9: Average hours of telecoms and media exposure per day, by activity and country Figure 10: Device ownership by device type Figure 11: Number of SIMs owned per consumer, by country Figure 12: Consumer perception of fixed and mobile broadband services, Europe and the USA Figure 13: Consumer perception of fixed and mobile broadband services, Denmark Figure 14: Breakdown of mobile broadband users by fixed broadband ownership Figure 15: Future plans for fixed and mobile broadband, by type of broadband to which currently subscribed Figure 16: Percentage of subscribers that would like to change service provider in the next six months, by country and service Figure 17: Intention to change service provider within the next six months, by overall fixed broadband customer satisfaction, Europe Figure 18: Metrics on aspects of fixed broadband customer satisfaction, Europe and the USA Figure 19: Percentage of fixed broadband decision makers that want to change service provider, 2010–2012, by country Figure 20: Aspects of fixed broadband service that are most likely to attract consumers to their next broadband package, by gender, Figure 21: Mobile voice traffic as a percentage of total outgoing voice traffic, by country, 2011 Figure 22: Intentions of voice service users, by country Figure 23: Percentage of mobile voice service users that want to change service provider, by country, 2009–2011 Figure 24: Statistics related to the use of software and mobile VoIP from the Connected Consumer Survey 2012 Figure 25: Consumer mobile voice usage when roaming Figure 26: Consumer mobile data usage when roaming Figure 27: Consumer mobile messaging usage when roaming Figure 28: Handset owners’ understanding of their mobile network generation, by handset type Figure 29: Mobile voice service users’ propensity to buy a smartphone as their next handset purchase, by current handset type Figure 30: Mobile users’ usage of services and apps, by handset type Figure 31: Mobile handset content and apps revenue by app type, and operator share of content revenue, Europe, 2011–2016 Figure 32: Intention to change pay-TV provider within the next six months, by access technology Figure 33: Reasons why pay-TV subscribers intend to leave their current service provider Figure 34: Consumption of video content by delivery method and device type Figure 35: Reasons given by respondents for not taking pay-TV services and pay-TV penetration rate, by country

Executive summary Recommendations Introduction Results Methodology About the author and Analysys Mason

Executive summary 2012 is set to be an interesting year in the telecoms industry. The increased penetration of smartphones and connected devices has reached a point where it is driving noticeable changes in service usage. Also, the balance of power between operators, vendors and over-the-top (OTT) players continues to waver; an increasing number of alliances are beginning to form between OTT players and operators, which marks a change of approach in comparison with 2010. Our consumer survey for this year yields some surprising results, such as intentions for reversed fixed–mobile substitution, as well as many consumers’ disinterest in purchasing a smartphone. The survey also confirms some ongoing trends, such as the increasing usage of mobile VoIP. The underlying theme of this year’s survey is evolution. Smartphone usage is disrupting the mobile voice market; market saturation is forcing operators to change their acquisition and retention strategies; mobile broadband continues to concern fixed service providers, but is leaving many customers dissatisfied and also needs to evolve. These issues have matured during 2011 and are likely to lead to further changes in operator strategies in 2012. This report presents some of the ‘headline’ results from the survey conducted in September and October 2011 across Europe and the USA. Figure 1: Selected statistics from the Connected Consumer Survey [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 respondents in countries Average number of hours of telecoms and media exposure time per respondent per day Percentage of tablet users that stream video content to their device Percentage of iPhone users who think they are already using a ‘4G’ network Percentage of fixed broadband subscribers that would like to change provider in the next 6 months Average number of SIM cards owned per respondent Median age in years of our survey panel 1 Various questions; n = 7485.

Recommendations [1] Mobile network operators (MNOs) cannot ignore mobile VoIP. About 11% of smartphone users used mobile VoIP in September or October Larger operators should experiment with their own new services as, for example, Telefónica is doing with O2 Connect. Smaller operators may choose either to take a disruptive approach (as Hutchison Whampoa’s ‘3’ operations have by forming partnerships with Skype) or to recalibrate the position or priority of data within their contract bundles. MNOs must focus on the factors that differentiate mobile broadband. MNOs with fixed operations need to revise their fixed–mobile broadband strategy to increase the ‘stickiness’ of mobile broadband, because this is primarily an additive service. MNOs without fixed operations must accept that mobile broadband is not yet a credible substitute for fixed broadband in markets that have broad fixed infrastructure coverage. These operators should focus their marketing on the key factors that differentiate mobile broadband from its fixed counterpart – namely price and mobility. Fixed broadband operators must promote customer care to maximise retention. Customer service is the experience factor that has the highest correlation to overall fixed broadband satisfaction levels. These satisfaction levels continue to have a strong influence on intention to churn: almost 70% of dissatisfied fixed broadband customers in Europe intend to change provider. Operators must implement improvements if they to defend their subscriber bases effectively. Customer lifetime management is essential to maintaining fixed broadband businesses. Fixed broadband customers’ priorities change during the time they spend with a service provider. They are initially attracted to high headline service speeds and low prices. However, customer service becomes a more significant factor in customer retention when users have committed to a package. Service providers that understand, plan for and adapt to their customers’ changing priorities will optimise subscriber attraction and retention.

Recommendations [2] MNOs must market LTE and 4G effectively. MNOs’ ability to articulate the benefits of LTE and 4G to the average consumer will have a significant impact on take-up of these technologies. Consumers are, for the most part, ill-informed about what 4G is and about what it enables: 6% of mobile consumers believe that they have a 4G-capable phone already and 46% of iPhone 4 users believe that their handset offers ‘4G’ network speeds. MNOs must effectively articulate the key benefits of LTE – convenience and low latency – in order to drive take-up when the technology really is launched. MNOs should not be over-optimistic about revenue from mobile content and applications. Mobile operators have benefitted from the growth of the mobile content and apps market, which has helped to drive handset sales and an increase in spending on mobile data services. However, the content market on mobile devices, just as it is on the fixed Internet, is open and largely beyond the control of operators. Mobile operators need to continue to focus on encouraging the adoption of mobile data services, and should view revenue from content and apps as merely incremental. Pay-TV operators should adopt a multi-screen strategy as a response to device fragmentation. Traditional pay-TV operators need to adopt more-open business models and ecosystems by making their content available on previously unsupported devices, such as connected TV sets, games consoles and tablets. Many pay-TV players are well-positioned to offer seamless cross-platform video services to consumers on a multitude of devices within and outside the home.

Introduction The European and US market for many core telecoms and media services – such as fixed broadband, voice and pay TV – is saturating. As a result, customer satisfaction and retention – which have always been important – have become critical. Customer satisfaction ratings across a variety of access technologies and service providers indicate that providers could improve most aspects of telecoms and media service delivery. For example, the mobile broadband experience is not meeting consumers’ expectations. The relationship that consumers have with devices, content and services is changing. Companies such as Apple and Google are shifting their role in the delivery of content and services, converging from different starting points (devices and ad-funded online services, respectively) towards a middle ground that includes multi-device operating systems, cloud service provision and content aggregation and distribution. This could affect the way in which consumers perceive service providers, as other types of company jostle to be the brand at the forefront of a consumer’s telecoms or media experience. The relative importance of devices to services is also shifting: in some demographic groups, spending on communication devices eclipses spending on communication services. Furthermore, the increasing availability of OTT content delivery from providers such as Netflix is changing the way in which consumers buy content. This trend could present a risk to operators – or an opportunity, if they choose to partner with such players. To maintain an up-to-date snapshot of consumer usage and demand, Analysys Mason’s annual Connected Consumer Survey tracks the telecoms and media usage of consumers in six European markets – Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Spain and the UK – as well as the USA. This iteration of the survey was conducted during September–October 2011, in association with Survey Sampling International. The survey covers a wide range of topics and issues related to the adoption and usage of, and attitudes towards, all telecoms services, including fixed and mobile broadband, fixed and mobile voice, and TV and video services.

Denmark Denmark is an addition to this iteration of the Connected Consumer Survey. The country is one of Europe’s smallest in terms of population, but has one of the highest GDP per capita rates in the region. Fixed broadband speeds are high in Denmark and prices are less of a barrier to entry for all telecoms and media services here than they are in other countries. Denmark has one of the highest broadband penetration rates in Europe, in terms of both fixed and mobile broadband. Telia has launched LTE services in Denmark, so the country may serve as an indicator of other markets’ reactions to next-generation mobile data services. Price competition is also strong in Denmark, where disruptive players such as Hi3G Denmark have launched services. Figure 2: Survey respondents’ demographic data: Denmark [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Number of respondents: 1057 Employment Full-time employment = 48% Part-time employment = 9% Retired = 26% Student = 9% Unemployed = 9% Gender Male = 48% Female = 52% Age range 18–24 = 9% 25–34 = 17% 35–44 = 19% 45–54 = 18% 55–64 = 17% 65+ = 19% Note that percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

France France has the third-largest telecoms market in Western Europe in terms of retail revenue. We estimate that consumers in France will have spent about EUR38.4 billion on telecoms services in 2011 – which is just behind the UK figure. The French fixed-line market is technologically advanced: it has more fixed infrastructure competition, higher broadband speeds and greater take-up of value-added services (such as IPTV, online music and media centres) than similar European markets. By contrast, the country’s mobile market is not as competitive. Prices for mobile services continue to be high for both voice and broadband and, as a result, France has experienced mobile–fixed substitution in the voice market (that is, the relative percentage of all calls that are made on the fixed line has increased in 2011). The penetration rate for triple-play packages is higher in France than in neighbouring countries. French operators have tended to price bundles at a benchmark rate of EUR29.90 per month, which usually included unlimited calls to fixed lines in a large number of countries. This model has been somewhat disrupted by tariff revisions in 2011, which have pushed the average value of triple-plays even higher. Figure 3: Survey respondents’ demographic data: France [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Number of respondents: 1141 Employment Full-time employment = 36% Part-time employment = 16% Retired = 27% Student = 6% Unemployed = 14% Gender Male = 46% Female = 54% Age range 18–24 = 12% 25–34 = 19% 35–44 = 19% 45–54 = 18% 55–64 = 15% 65+ = 18% Note that percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Germany Germany is the most-populous country in Western Europe: it had about 82 million inhabitants at the end of It is also the most-valuable telecoms market in Europe in terms of retail revenue. The penetration rates for services other than fixed voice are notably lower than those in many other Western European countries. Fixed broadband and mobile SIM penetration rates lag European averages. Furthermore, mobile voice usage is relatively low and fixed–mobile substitution has been slow to take effect. Price reductions in the fixed market, as well as relatively high levels of fixed-line penetration, have contributed to fixed voice service usage remaining relatively high as a proportion of voice service usage overall in Germany. The German market is characterised by low-cost multi-channel pay-TV services. IPTV services are starting to gain popularity. Figure 4: Survey respondents’ demographic data: Germany [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Number of respondents: 1026 Employment Full-time employment = 42% Part-time employment = 16% Retired = 28% Student = 6% Unemployed = 8% Gender Male = 47% Female = 53% Age range 18–24 = 10% 25–34 = 15% 35–44 = 21% 45–54 = 16% 55–64 = 17% 65+ = 21% Note that percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Poland Poland is the sixth-largest country in the European Union (EU) in terms of population, and 60% of its inhabitants live in urban areas. Prior to the recession, Poland had experienced remarkable economic growth. The country’s mobile market is highly competitive and dominates the Polish telecoms market in terms of both connections and call volumes. About 45% of households are mobile-only. Multi-play services have been available from altnets since 2004, and from Telekomunikacja Polska (TP), the incumbent, since 2006. The Polish mobile market consists of three MNOs of comparable size and a fourth UMTS-only player, Play, that has had a significant impact on the market because of its very aggressive pricing strategy. Polish Internet users tend to be younger, more wealthy and more ‘tech-savvy’. This will introduce some bias into the results of our survey because it was an online-only panel. Figure 5: Survey respondents’ demographic data: Poland [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Number of respondents: 1028 Employment Full-time employment = 48% Part-time employment = 11% Retired = 20% Student = 10% Unemployed = 12% Gender Male = 49% Female =51% Age range 18–24 = 14% 25–34 = 19% 35–44 = 18% 45–54 = 22% 55–64 = 20% 65+ = 7% Note that percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Spain Spain is the fifth-largest market in Western Europe in terms of population: it had an estimated 46 million people at the end of It is also the fifth-largest telecoms market in Europe in terms of retail revenue. The incumbent, Telefónica España, continues to dominate the country’s fixed and mobile telecoms markets in terms of both the number of subscribers and revenue. International players France Telecom (Orange) and Vodafone also offer a full array of fixed and mobile services over their own networks, and because of this do not suffer as a result of fixed–mobile substitution. Contenders ONO and its smaller rival Jazztel own broadband access infrastructure and have launched mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), but their approach to mobile services is understandably complementary rather than substitutive. Spain was hit hard by the recession. As a result, its consumers are facing more austere circumstances and are reducing their spending. Higher-than-average numbers of consumers are considering changing or giving up telecoms services, and price is the most important factor in their buying decisions. Furthermore, a not-insignificant number of consumers intend to use fixed services for a larger share of their voice calls. Figure 6: Survey respondents’ demographic data: Spain [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Number of respondents: 960 Employment Full-time employment = 45% Part-time employment = 13% Retired = 14% Student = 7% Unemployed = 20% Gender Male = 49% Female = 51% Age range 18–24 = 10% 25–34 = 21% 35–44 = 20% 45–54 = 22% 55–64 = 20% 65+ = 8% Note that percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

UK The UK is the third-largest country in Western Europe in terms of population, and has the third-highest level of telecoms spending. Our respondent panel covers Great Britain, rather than the whole of the United Kingdom – that is, it does not include Northern Ireland. However, Great Britain continues to serve as an adequate proxy for UK consumer behaviour. Large players of comparable size dominate the country’s mobile and fixed telecoms markets: the mobile sector has four major MNOs, while three Internet service providers (ISPs) account for about three quarters of all fixed broadband subscribers. This has resulted in a diverse range of pricing and service options, as providers attempt to differentiate their offerings. Take-up of mobile broadband services is growing rapidly in the UK market, partly as a result of attractive pricing: the country has some of the lowest-priced USB modems in Europe. IPTV and other entertainment services are relatively underdeveloped because of cableco Virgin Media’s and satellite player and ISP BSkyB’s strong presence in the pay-TV market. Figure 7: Survey respondents’ demographic data: UK [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Number of respondents: 1113 Employment Full-time employment = 47% Part-time employment = 17% Retired = 21% Student = 6% Unemployed = 9% Gender Male = 47% Female = 53% Age range 18–24 = 11% 25–34 = 19% 35–44 = 19% 45–54 = 17% 55–64 = 14% 65+ = 20% Note that percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

USA The USA had a population of about 315 million at the end of 2011, which is roughly the combined size of France, Germany, Spain and the UK. Its economy is the largest in the world (its nominal GDP stood at an estimated USD15.2 trillion (EUR11.4 trillion) in 2010), followed by those of Japan and China. The US telecoms industry will have generated an estimated USD334 billion (EUR251 billion) in retail revenue in 2011. The mobile market accounts for almost half of telecoms revenue in the USA, although PSTN services continue to be a large business (fixed voice will have accounted for about 32% of telecoms retail revenue in the USA in 2011). The revenue from fixed broadband and video services combined is greater than that from PSTN. The average revenue per user (ARPU) rates for all services in the USA are strikingly high in comparison with those in other surveyed markets. The US telecoms market is highly consolidated. Six operators account for more than two thirds of total telecoms revenue. The country no longer has a national incumbent, but AT&T and Verizon account for about half of all revenue. Figure 8: Survey respondents’ demographic data: USA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Number of respondents: 1160 Employment Full-time employment = 49% Part-time employment = 9% Retired = 27% Student = 4% Unemployed = 11% Gender Male = 47% Female = 53% Age range 18–24 = 9% 25–34 = 18% 35–44 = 20% 45–54 = 18% 55–64 = 15% 65+ = 21% Note that percentages may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Fixed broadband – customer retention is tied to quality of experience
Results Devices, consumers’ time and the evolving connected consumer Mobile broadband – primarily an additive service and churn continues to be an issue Fixed broadband – customer retention is tied to quality of experience Voice – call volume substitution and cannibalisation are not one-directional Mobile content and devices – focus on selling the underlying data connectivity TV and video consumption – no easy targets for new business, despite market evolution

Service providers still hold a lot of power: the amount of time that consumers spend connected is increasing Competition for consumers’ time and wallet is frequently seen as a four-way race between service providers, content owners, device manufacturers and OTT players. Some companies have diversified and now fit into more than one of these categories, which makes the race even more complex. Furthermore, the competitors in this race are co-dependent. The service provider continues to be of most importance to consumers, despite Apple’s headline-grabbing product launches, Facebook’s control over their digital personas, Google’s high profile on the desktop and smartphone, and Netflix’s expansion into Europe. This is because connectivity underpins the activities that are taking up an increasing percentage of consumers’ time.1 For example: watching video content continues to be popular, and much of this is delivered by telcos (the impact of OTT video continues to be limited, despite fears to the contrary; control resides with the service provider)2 web browsing, text and voice communication (core telecoms services) account for an average of 37% of a consumer’s telecoms and media usage per day consumption of music and gaming is also changing in terms of how it is bought and delivered, and providers have opportunities to tie these content types more closely to telecoms and media subscriptions. Figure 9: Average hours of telecoms and media exposure per day, by activity and country [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]3 1 See Analysys Mason’s Report A day in the life: profiling consumer telecoms and media usage and value. 2 See Analysys Mason’s Forecast Report Pay TV in Europe: forecasts and analysis 2011– 2016 3 Question: “Think about what you did on [uniformly distributed day of the week]. How much time did you spend doing the following?”; n = DK = Denmark, FR = France, DE = Germany, PL = Poland and ES = Spain. In 2011 we separated text and voice communication into distinct categories.

The increasing penetration rate of connected devices will drive change in consumers’ service usage
Laptops now have a higher penetration rates than music systems. This trend reflects the change in how consumers are listening to music. Service providers are increasingly offering bundles of telecoms services and ‘unlimited’ music subscriptions to address this potential market. More consumers own smartphones than handheld games consoles, and an increasing percentage of games (portable, desktop and console) have an online component. Almost 80% of consumers now have an external device plugged into their TV set, and the number of connected TVs is increasing. In addition, an increasing proportion of the devices that consumers plug into their TV sets are broadband-enabled, which is driving growth in the number of hours that users spend connected to a network. Despite Apple’s high visibility, only 8% of our survey respondents use an iPhone. Apple may have catalysed both adoption and innovation in the smartphone market, but its impact on 92% of consumers’ lives continues to be quite limited. Its relative influence must be viewed from this perspective. Figure 10: Device ownership by device type [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 1 Multiple questions; n = 7485.

Tariff reductions have countered the increasing complexity of connectivity and, as a result, reduced the need for multiple SIMs The increasing complexity of consumers’ connectivity is diluting the amount of time that they spend connected to any one operator’s network. For example, a consumer could switch from connecting a device predominantly over a cellular network to doing so via Wi-Fi. Much multiple-SIM ownership is the result of customers owning several handsets, which are connected to different MNOs’ networks. This increasing complexity also presents operators with an opportunity to evolve. The growing number of connected devices gives them the chance to broaden their ecosystems to include smartphones and tablets, and to have a greater presence within consumers’ homes. An increasing percentage of mobile devices have embedded SIMs, and take-up of mobile broadband services continues to grow. As a result, the average number of SIMs per user in Europe and the USA has increased. However, these trends are offset by SIM consolidation in the voice market, as tariffs shift from on-net to any-network call time and consumers no longer need secondary SIMs to save money. More than a third of survey respondents in Poland claimed to own three or more SIM cards. Our sample in this country is demographically representative of its online population. As fewer people can afford Internet services, it is likely that our sample is more ‘tech-savvy’ than the national average, which may inflate certain measures such as multiple-SIM ownership. Figure 11: Number of SIMs owned per consumer, by country [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 1 Question: “How many SIM cards do you currently use?”; n = 7022.

Customers are in little doubt that fixed broadband is superior to mobile broadband
Figure 12: Consumer perception of fixed and mobile broadband services, Europe and the USA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 Mobile broadband take-up continues to grow apace in Europe and the USA. We estimate that there will be about 63 million mobile broadband customers in Europe at the end of 2011, and that this figure will double by However, increasing take-up of tablets will drive a 30% reduction in ARPU over the same period. Consumers’ perception of mobile broadband is not favourable in comparison to fixed services. In markets where the latter are readily available, consumers tend to view mobile broadband as a substitutive service. As more content, such as video, is delivered online, it will become less likely that consumers will prefer mobile broadband over fixed broadband. About half of respondents in the countries surveyed perceive fixed broadband as the superior service. Only 5.5% of them believe that mobile broadband is the best. Even in Denmark, where Telia launched LTE services in 2010, perceptions are no better. In fact, a slightly smaller proportion of consumers in this country considered mobile broadband superior (at 5.2%). Mobile broadband is unlikely to become the de-facto broadband connectivity method in the long term. Shorter-range wireless communication methods, such as Wi-Fi, are likely to become near-ubiquitous in urban areas. Mobile is superior About the same Fixed is superior Figure 13: Consumer perception of fixed and mobile broadband services, Denmark [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 1 Question: “Comparing fixed and mobile broadband, which service do you feel provides a better experience in terms of the following factors - Overall”; n = 6583 (all countries), (Denmark). 2 We define mobile broadband as cellular data access via a USB modem, a datacard or an embedded module in a laptop or tablet. For further details, see Analysys Mason’s Forecast Report Mobile broadband in Europe: forecasts and analysis 2011–2016.

Mobile broadband is complementary to fixed broadband in Western markets, and this is unlikely to change Figure 14: Breakdown of mobile broadband users by fixed broadband ownership [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 Figure 15: Future plans for fixed and mobile broadband, by type of broadband to which currently subscribed [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]2 About 86% of mobile broadband users also have a fixed broadband connection. This proportion is unlikely to change significantly. Only 7% of consumers that take both fixed and mobile broadband services are planning to give up their fixed line, whereas 21% of consumers that have only mobile broadband are considering also taking up fixed broadband. Consumers that lack a mobile broadband service have split affiliations. About 48% of consumers that plan to take up mobile broadband intend to use it as their only broadband service. The challenge for MNOs after they win these customers will be to convince them that mobile broadband is sufficient. 1 Questions: “Are you aware of mobile broadband?” and “Do you have a fixed broadband connection (that is, one that comes into your home by a wire, though it may then be distributed around your home by Wi-Fi)?”; n = 2260. 2 Question: “What are your plans for your broadband services?”; n = various.

Service providers are struggling to retain mobile broadband customers
In 2011, about 10% of mobile broadband users surveyed intended to give up the service completely. Although this is an improvement over the 13% figure we recorded in 2010, it presents a daunting challenge for MNOs. The potential churn rate for mobile broadband is twice as high as those for other services: 26% of users would like to change provider. MNOs with fixed operations should revise their fixed–mobile broadband strategies to increase the ‘stickiness’ of mobile broadband. The most popular approach to bundling fixed and mobile broadband services is to set the incremental cost of the latter at about 65% of its standalone price. MNOs that lack fixed operations must accept that mobile broadband is not yet a credible substitute for fixed services. They should focus their marketing on the two key factors that differentiate mobile broadband from its fixed counterpart: price – particularly in countries where fixed broadband churn rates are higher and affordability is a greater barrier to entry, such as Spain, affordable low-usage tariffs for mobile broadband can significantly undercut fixed alternatives mobility – the key differentiator for mobile broadband. Most mobile broadband usage takes place in the home or office, but the utility of mobility is greater than that of using mobile broadband in a fixed location and is highly valued by consumers. Figure 16: Percentage of subscribers that would like to change service provider in the next six months, by country and service [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 1 Various questions; n = various.

Consumers reward a high fixed broadband quality of experience and are becoming more likely to abandon unsatisfactory providers Figure 17: Intention to change service provider within the next six months, by overall fixed broadband customer satisfaction, Europe [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 About half of consumers have never changed their fixed broadband service provider. However, the other half are becoming more demanding. In 2009, slightly less than 50% of European respondents that rated their overall satisfaction with their fixed broadband service as ‘one out of five’ stated that they intended to change provider. This proportion increased to about 70% in 2010 and remained at a comparable level in 2011. By contrast, satisfied customers are becoming increasingly loyal to their provider. In 2011, only 3% of consumers that scored their broadband experience as ‘five out of five’ intended to change provider in the next six months, compared with 9% in the previous year. Operators must prioritise customer service – the experience factor that has the highest correlation to overall satisfaction levels – if they are to effectively defend their subscriber bases. 1 Questions: “Do you intend to change your Internet service provider in the next 6 months?” and “How would you score your satisfaction with the following aspects of your fixed broadband service? Overall”; n = 1738.

The most important factor for fixed broadband is not speed, reliability or even price – it is customer service Customer service is the most influential factor in the overall fixed broadband experience. Speed, reliability and even the price of a service are less relevant issues to subscribers after they have taken up a service. Customer service (whether it be on the phone or at a provider’s retail outlet) provides the principal point of human contact that customers have with their service provider at any time after initial service installation. Therefore, this interaction has a significant influence on their overall perception of the provider. Customer service has the lowest average score of all the service aspects that we tested. However, it also has the highest statistical correlation with overall customer satisfaction.2 This means that a change in satisfaction with customer service is more likely to affect overall satisfaction than a change in satisfaction with any other service aspect. The relationship between overall customer satisfaction and satisfaction with each specific aspect of a fixed broadband service are, to some extent, bi-directional – satisfaction with speed affects overall satisfaction and vice versa. However, customer service experience is more uni-directional and an improvement in customer service experience is likely to increase overall customer satisfaction – whereas it is less likely that high overall satisfaction makes people score customer service as ‘good’ or ‘very good’. Figure 18: Metrics on aspects of fixed broadband customer satisfaction, Europe and the USA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 Aspect Average customer satisfaction Correlation with overall2 Variance Speed 3.59 0.65 1.16 Reliability 3.72 0.72 1.08 Usage restrictions 3.77 0.68 1.03 Brand 3.61 0.74 1.22 Customer service 3.37 0.75 1.41 Price 3.49 0.57 1.36 Overall 3.58 1.00 0.95 1 Question: “How would you score your satisfaction with the following aspects of your fixed broadband service? <aspect>”; n = 6553. 2 Correlation defines the degree of linear dependence between variables; in this case, the relationship between specific aspects of customer satisfaction and the whole. The closer a correlation coefficient is to 1 or –1, the stronger the positive or negative correlation, respectively, between the aspects of customer satisfaction.

Fixed broadband intention to churn is broadly declining, except in Spain
Between 5% and 12% of all fixed broadband customers in the countries that we surveyed in 2011 intended to change provider in the six months following the study. Between 3% and 13% more customers would have liked to churn, but were tied into their contract. This is an improvement on 2010’s figures, in most countries. The exception is in Spain, where churn intention rose from 9% to 12% year-on-year. Economic uncertainty continues in Spain and unemployment has also increased. According to Eurostat, unemployment rose by 2.3 percentage points between October 2010 and October 2011 and this has maintained a level of consumer caution in Spain that has not been seen to the same extent in our other survey countries. Denmark, which is new to the study this year, has the lowest intention-to-churn rate, potentially for two reasons: user satisfaction ratings for fixed broadband are higher in Denmark than in other European countries the affordability of fixed broadband is relatively high in Denmark (when normalised for purchasing power parity), so price is less of a barrier to consumers taking their first- choice tariff, which reduces the likelihood of later churn. Similar numbers of consumers in 2010 and 2011 remain tied into contracts, but would like to change service provider (2–13% of all consumers, depending on the market). Figure 19: Percentage of fixed broadband decision makers that want to change service provider, 2010–2012, by country [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 Denmark USA France UK Germany Spain Poland 1 Question: “Do you intend to change your Internet service provider in the next 6 months?”; n = 6499.

Customer priorities change throughout their ‘customer lifetime’, and the relative importance of price and access speed is also shifting Figure 20: Aspects of fixed broadband service that are most likely to attract consumers to their next broadband package, by gender, Europe and the USA, 2009–2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 In a saturated market, the ability to take custom from competing operators’ subscriber bases is just as important as the ability to retain customers. Customer care is one of the most significant drivers of churn. Factors such as access speed and price are a lower priority for consumers. However, the factors that help to retain customers are different to those that attract them to their next service – in fact, customers’ stated priorities almost reverse. Marketing and promoting customer service experience is a challenge. This aspect is most-effectively promoted by word of mouth (although consumer awards also help). Price and access speed are the aspects that consumers consider when selecting their next fixed broadband package. Price has become more important to consumers between and 2011, while speed has become less so. Despite this, these two factors have maintained their relative rankings as the most important. In this context, ‘price’ can represent value for money and does not necessarily mean cash value. The main driver for these trends could be the waning importance of access speeds. Many consumers’ needs can be met by the speeds currently available to them, and those that want higher speeds may have taken up appropriate services already (where available). Mass-market demand for bandwidth will not increase further until more-demanding applications emerge.2 1 Question: “Which one of the following factors would most attract you to a new service provider? (Please select only one answer.)”; n = 1972. 2 See Analysys Mason’s Report Consumer cloud services: applications and opportunities.

The general assumption is that fixed voice will migrate to mobile, but the market dynamics are not that simple The overall narrative of the voice market is one of fixed–mobile substitution (FMS). However, the level of FMS varies greatly between countries according to the continued relevance of fixed voice services. At one end of the scale, we estimate that about 84% of outgoing voice traffic in the USA originates from mobiles. Large bundles of voice minutes are the norm for mobile contracts in this market. FMS is at a similar stage in Poland, where mobile pricing is very competitive compared with fixed pricing. Almost half of homes in Poland are mobile-only. Conversely, mobile services have a much weaker foothold in Germany. Its fixed voice market has long been competitive and recent price competition in the mobile market has not significantly affected consumer behaviour. The future intentions of voice service users also paint a complex picture. A significant proportion of customers in some markets intend to use their landlines more in the coming year. Of these markets, France has already experienced a reversal of the FMS trend.1 Germany and Spain – both markets where fixed usage is entrenched and where FMS is slowing – may also undergo a temporary reversal. Figure 21: Mobile voice traffic as a percentage of total outgoing voice traffic, by country, 2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] Figure 22: Intentions of voice service users, by country [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]2 1 See Analysys Mason’s Forecast Report Fixed and mobile voice services in Western Europe: forecasts and analysis 2011–2016. 2 Question: “How do you think your usage of mobile and landline services will change in the next six months?”; n = 7022.

Longer contracts may have had only a short-term effect on mobile handset churn rates
Consumers’ intention to change mobile voice service provider has broadly declined in the countries that we have tracked since 2009, from an average of 14% in 2009 to 9% in This can be attributed to two related trends: operators offering longer-term contracts in exchange for lower monthly charges during the economic downturn increasing take-up of smartphones, whereby users repay relatively small subsidies over a longer period of time. The shift from 12- or 24-month contracts to 24- or 36-month contracts may have led to a short-term decline in consumer churn. However, as this wave of contracts reach term, it is likely that pent-up desire to change provider will lead to an increase in handset churn rates. In the countries we surveyed, between 5% and 10% of mobile voice service users would like to change mobile operator, but cannot because they are still locked into contracts. As older 24- and 36-month contracts expire, consumers that wanted to churn in 2010 and 2011 will do so in 2012. The increasing average contract length has been raised as a consumer issue in a number of markets. ARCEP introduced legislation earlier this year to reduce subscriber lock-in following Europe-wide legislation on the issue. Figure 23: Percentage of mobile voice service users that want to change service provider, by country, 2009–2011 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 1 Question: “Do you intend to change your mobile voice provider in the next six months?”; n = 5257.

Is the mobile voice market at risk of cannibalisation from OTT players and, if so, what should MNOs do? Figure 24: Statistics related to the use of software and mobile VoIP from the Connected Consumer Survey 2012 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 The Dutch incumbent KPN issued a profit warning in April 2011, which it stated was the result of the growing take-up of smartphones and the ensuing usage of OTT voice and messaging apps, such as Skype and WhatsApp.2 More than a quarter of the adult population uses software VoIP apps on PCs, primarily for free calls to local destinations and for making international calls to friends and family. Skype, which our survey indicates holds a 78% share of the software VoIP market by active users, is also making significant in-roads into mobile VoIP. The relative value of operators’ services and connectivity is changing, and operators will need to carefully manage the migration of value from SMS and voice services to data services. This finding does not only apply to voice – we anticipate that only about half of handset usage time will be related to communication by Serious misalignment in pricing structures will prompt customers to take action.3 Larger operators should experiment with their own new services as, for example, Telefónica is doing with O2 Connect. Smaller operators may choose either to take a disruptive approach (as Hutchison Whampoa’s ‘3’ has with its Skype partnerships in various markets) or may wish to simply recalibrate the position or priority of data within their contract bundles. of respondents use software VoIP of smartphone users use mobile VoIP of mobile VoIP users make calls from abroad using mobile VoIP of mobile VoIP users make international calls over mobile VoIP Median age of our survey panel Median age of software VoIP users Median age of smartphone users Median age of mobile VoIP user 1 Various questions; n = 7485. 2 See Analysys Mason’s Viewpoint The Dutch response to WhatsApp and other over-the-top players: too little, too late. 3 See Analysys Mason’s Report The future of mobile voice: scenarios for market evolution.

More than 67% of mobile users take their handset abroad, but usage will change significantly as roaming tariffs decline towards national rates Figure 25: Consumer mobile voice usage when roaming [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 Figure 27: Consumer mobile messaging usage when roaming [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 Less than 33% of mobile users do not take their handset abroad, and 44% of users will make voice calls only in an emergency when they are abroad. Mobile messaging is the communication method of choice: 49% of consumers send text messages while abroad, but usage of OTT messaging solutions and Wi-Fi is increasing. Reductions to roaming charges may bring user behaviour when roaming more in line with domestic usage patterns. The European Commission aims to reduce the difference between national and roaming tariffs to almost zero by It is unlikely to fully achieve this, but initiatives such as this will affect user behaviour when roaming.2 In 2011, about 90% of consumers’ altered their mobile service usage while abroad. Figure 26: Consumer mobile data usage when roaming [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 1 Question: “What best describes your mobile phone usage when you are abroad?”; n = 6249. 2 See Analysys Mason’s Viewpoint Regulation of international mobile roaming tariffs: can the European Commission achieve its goals?.

A large percentage of consumers are confused about network generations and must be educated about the benefits of LTE and 4G Informing consumers of the benefits of LTE, HSPA+ or any mobile data service that might be promoted as ‘4G’ may be a challenge. This is partly the result of misleading marketing as to what exactly constitutes a 4G service. More than 6% of all mobile users believe that they already have a 4G handset, and more than half of them do not understand mobile network generations or are unsure of the connectivity generation of their phone. Apple’s numbering of iPhone models (and occasional use of ‘G’ as an abbreviation for ‘generation’ – at least for its iPod products) has also confused consumers. About 28% of iPhone users believe that they have a 4G-capable handset. This figure rises to more than 46% for iPhone 4 users. Efforts to market and sell 4G services to consumers must focus on the differentiating factors of the new access technology from an enablement point of view, rather than a technical perspective. The most obvious factor is convenience: LTE enables consumers to use mobile data services with a much higher degree of reliability than previous-generation data networks (particularly deeper into buildings and while on the move) and at higher data rates. LTE will also significantly reduce the loading time and latency of mobile data connections, which will improve online gaming capabilities and video communications in particular as well as the mobile browsing experience in general. Figure 28: Handset owners’ understanding of their mobile network generation, by handset type [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 1 Question: “Which of the following personal devices do you own or use > mobile phone > network generation”; n = 7140.

Almost half of non-smartphone users do not feel that they have a motivation to upgrade to a smartphone Almost 30% of respondents to our consumer survey have no intention of buying a smartphone. Of those that have a smartphone, 7% feel that they have no need for the additional features and functionality that it offers. However, more than 80% state that their next handset purchase will either definitely or probably be a smartphone. By contrast, almost half (46%) of non-smartphone users see no need for a smartphone, and only 31% feel that they will definitely or probably buy a smartphone as their next handset purchase. This could set a maximum limit on smartphone purchases for the next two-to-three years. However, smartphone pricing has started to decline significantly as sales have increased. Reasonable quality Android handsets are rapidly approaching the EUR100 price point, and this will reduce the financial barrier to entry for the take-up of smartphones. Accordingly, Analysys Mason forecasts that smartphones will account for 72% of all active handsets in use by 2016 in Western Europe.1 Figure 29: Mobile voice service users’ propensity to buy a smartphone as their next handset purchase, by current handset type [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]2 2 See Analysys Mason’s Comment piece Smartphones will represent 72% of all handsets by in Western Europe. 2 Question: “Next time you buy a new handset, will you [select one response]”; n = 6803.

Operators should use mobile content and apps to encourage adoption of mobile data services – any direct revenue is merely an added bonus Figure 30: Mobile users’ usage of services and apps, by handset type [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 Only 37% of mobile subscribers regularly use features other than mobile voice services, SMS and the camera. We anticipate growth in overall usage of value-added services and apps as the penetration rate for smartphones increases. Mobile operators have benefitted from the growth of the mobile content and apps market, which has helped to drive handset sales and an increase in spending on mobile data services. However, the content market on mobile devices, just as it is on the fixed Internet, is open and largely beyond the control of operators. Mobile operators need to continue to focus on encouraging the adoption of mobile data services. The second- and third-most popular services – mobile web browsing and – are entirely dependent on data services. Revenue from content and apps, which often flows via third-party stores, should be viewed as incremental. We forecast that overall revenue from mobile content and apps in Europe will grow from EUR3.0 billion to EUR3.9 billion between 2011 and 2016 (at a 5% CAGR).2 As consumers gradually migrate to using smartphones, third parties will take an increasing share of spending on content and apps. Operators’ share of content and apps spending will decline to less than 30% by 2016 in Europe. Figure 31: Mobile handset content and apps revenue by app type, and operator share of content revenue, Europe, 2011–2016 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011] 1 Question “Which of the following services or devices do you currently use on a regular basis on a mobile phone (at least once within the past 3 months)?”; all respondents; n = 6803. 2 See Analysys Mason’s Forecast Report Mobile content and applications in Europe: forecasts and analysis 2011–2016.

OTT services are unlikely to change the pay-TV market
OTT services have achieved high penetration rates in the USA, but players such as Netflix are unlikely to convince established pay-TV subscribers in Europe and the USA to abandon their primary TV subscription. Only 8% of consumers that plan to change their pay-TV subscription in the next six months are doing so because they feel that free TV channels combined with OTT content would be sufficient for their needs. Nevertheless, OTT services may well have far greater appeal as complementary services on the growing number of secondary digital TV sets, for which consumers typically are inclined to spend less. The long-term outlook for OTT players may brighten somewhat as they increase their penetration rate on these secondary sets. Overall, pay-TV services are relatively secure. They continue to be less expensive than many alternative recreational activities (such as cinema screenings or dining out) that consumers would consider cutting down on as their level of disposable income declines. About 7% of users intend to change service provider in the next six months, and only 16% of these users intend to give up pay-TV services altogether. Figure 32: Intention to change pay-TV provider within the next six months, by access technology [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 Figure 33: Reasons why pay-TV subscribers intend to leave their current service provider [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]2 1 Question: “Do you intend to change your main pay-TV provider in the next 6 months”; n = 3783. 2 Question: “Why are you switching pay-TV provider? [tick all that apply]”; n = 343.

Video viewing habits on tablets differ from those on TV sets or PCs
The average amount of video watched by consumers has changed little in the past 10 years. However, the combination of devices that they use to consume content is evolving. Most live broadcast content and physical media, such as DVDs, is viewed on the TV set. We expect this behaviour to evolve, but only slowly. On-demand and streamed material tends to be selected by an individual viewer and is less frequently viewed communally. As a result, video content consumed on a personal device such as a tablet is more likely to be streamed from the Internet. Only half of consumers side-load or download paid-for content onto their tablets (we refer to this as ‘locally stored’ content). By contrast, more than 90% of consumers stream video to these devices. The limited built-in storage capacity of many devices also drives consumer demand for streaming and cloud services. Service providers with pay-TV and broadband propositions are well-placed to offer multi-screen video propositions within the home that address the balance of different types of media consumption. US operators are the leaders in this approach. Providers may be able to drive increased usage of, and thus revenue from, an underused video-on-demand (VoD) service simply by expanding the range of devices on which it can be viewed to include tablets. Figure 34: Consumption of video content by delivery method and device type [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 1 Question: “Please tick each box that represents a combination of a type of video and a type of device that you have watched in the past three months”; n = 6540.

The challenge of gaining new pay-TV customers: there is no ‘low-hanging fruit’
Figure 35: Reasons given by respondents for not taking pay-TV services and pay-TV penetration rate, by country [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]1 Many consumers that do not subscribe to pay-TV services have little intention of doing so. We forecast that the penetration rate for pay-TV services among European households will increase only slightly, from 53% in 2011 to just 57% in 2016. In most of the countries we surveyed, more than half of respondents state that they either do not watch enough TV or find free TV channels sufficient for their needs. Operators can do little to attract such consumers. However, service providers can address the issues of affordability and perceptions of value through price reductions. Simple price cuts are not a preferable approach, although operators in countries such as Poland have experimented with ‘pay-as-you-go’ pay-TV services. Service bundling can help to reduce the perceived price of pay-TV services. For this reason, we expect the take-up of IPTV services to drive growth in pay-TV penetration in more-mature markets. Operators can also improve the value proposition for pay-TV services by diversifying content. More-focused content propositions for niche market segments, such as expatriate communities or young professionals (who may be less motivated to take up pay-TV services if they are not interested in live sporting events), may improve penetration, but will also by definition appeal to smaller segments of the market. 1 Question: “What factor most deters you from buying a pay-TV (that is, cable or satellite TV) package?”; all respondents that do not take a pay-TV package; n = 2230. 2 See Analysys Mason’s Forecast Report Pay TV in Europe: forecasts and analysis 2011–2016.

Methodology The iteration of the Connected Consumer Survey featured in this report was conducted during September–October 2011, in association with Survey Sampling International (SSI). Process – Respondents were selected from SSI’s online survey panel until nationally representative quotas for gender, age range and employment status (as well as geographical region in the case of the USA) were reached. Respondents were then asked to complete a 20-minute questionnaire, Analysys Mason’s Connected Consumer Survey. Questions took the form of yes/no, multiple choice, text and numerical input cells, sliders and simple Flash-based questions that allowed respondents to drag-and-drop answers that required them to place responses in order of priority. Panel – The survey group comprised 7485 individuals aged 18 years and over, and was representative of the demographic characteristics of Internet users in each country, which closely matches the national demographic characteristics of Denmark, France, Germany, the UK and the USA. The Internet penetration rates in Poland and Spain are marginally lower than those in the other five countries, so the demographics of these respondents may be biased towards the socio-economic demographic groups that are more likely to have access to an Internet connection. Language – The questionnaire text for the Connected Consumer Survey was translated from the original English into Danish, French, German, Polish and Spanish by professional translators and checked by native language speakers in-house. The text was also converted into US English by our US-based analysts. Non-technical language was used in the survey to enable a broad range of people with differing backgrounds to answer the questions. As a result, the terms used in the survey were not necessarily those used commonly within the telecoms industry. Filtering data – On occasion, despite maintenance of the survey panel base and the filtering out of respondents that had provided inconsistent results to previous surveys, a minority of respondents occasionally provided anomalous results (referred to as ‘outliers’) that would suggest that they had made an error or experienced technical difficulties. Such outliers were filtered from aggregate results as appropriate and the number or respondents (‘n’) reported beside each question in this report takes this filtering into account.

About the author Martin Scott (Principal Analyst) leads Analysys Mason’s Fixed Broadband research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include fixed broadband retail pricing and bundling, and customer satisfaction and consumer-facing marketing strategy. Martin also specialises in statistics, surveys and the analysis of primary research, and he co-ordinates Analysys Mason’s Connected Consumer series. He has produced research for Analysys Mason on different aspects of broadband (next-generation) access, consumer demand for present and next-generation services, and the business case for value-added services, such as videotelephony and three-screen advertising. Martin has a Master’s degree in Mathematics from Oxford University. Published by Analysys Mason Limited • Bush House • North West Wing • Aldwych • London • WC2B 4PJ • UK Tel: +44 (0) • Fax: +44 (0) • • • Registered in England No © Analysys Mason Limited All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client- specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.

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