1. Best Practice & Avoiding Errors
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G.,
Wilkinson, B., (2011)
Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resource CD Rom, De Montfort University

2. Likelihood Impact Imminence
Over estimating
risk
Under estimating
risk
Balanced Risk Judgements
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

3. Methodological Sources of Error
Actuarial
The group rather than the individual
Re-conviction rather than re-offending
Clinical
Research done and made available
Knowledge changing over time
Confusion between cause and effect
Lack of information about particular groups
Lack of attention to resilience
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

4. What Goes Wrong in Planning might include
Incomplete understanding of the behaviour - moving to solutions too soon.
Assuming a risk factor is relevant to offending when it is not.
Competing solutions that undermine each other's effectiveness.
When something isn’t working doing more of the same, ‘turning up the volume’.
Avoiding doing what needs to be done, using confusion about influences on offending to excuse inactivity.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
ie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

5. The Iceberg Model External World Actions Feelings Thoughts
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
ie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

6. The Iceberg Model External World Actions Filters on our perceptions
Feelings
Thoughts
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
ie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

7. Sources of Bias and Error
Value base
Discrimination
Invalid models
Self belief of the assessor
Unreal optimism
Being afraid
Perceptual bias
Representative
Confirmation
Availability
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

8. Obstacles to Fair and Effective Risk Decision Making
The busy screen
Under or over critical appraisal of information
The ‘decoy of dual pathology’ (Hollows)
Our personal knowledge of the person
Knowledge of the group to which the person belongs
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University
ie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

9. Professional Reciprocal Enforcing Avoiding
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

10. Effects of Self Efficacy Beliefs
Choices
Effort
Perseverance
Resilience
Thought patterns
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

11. Nurturing Skills and Efficacy Beliefs
Managers who
Focus on quality not just on targets
Observe practice
Provide clinical supervision
Provide coaching opportunities
Supported by
Team discussions and practice seminars
Peer coaching
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

12. Systemic Failures Individual Assessor The Systems & offender Processes
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

13. Some Questions ? Responsibilities ? Limits and boundaries
? Clear and realistic standards and priorities
? Appropriate supervision
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

14. Processes in Discussions
No alternative
Initial impressions
Decisions first criteria second
Impact overwhelming likelihood
Strength of opinions
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

15. A Focus on Quality
Have sufficient depth of knowledge and skills to keep a focus on the whole picture for each individual.
Generate case formulations, or whole case hypotheses, to pull all of the information together and prepare a risk management plan tailored to the needs of the individual.
Regularly review their assessments to change these formulations in the light of changing information.
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

16. Making Sure Your Voice is Heard
Critically reflect on the quality of your own practice
Constructively raise organisational blocks to good risk practice by
Analysing clearly what you are concerned about.
Trying to identify the ‘root cause’ of the problem.
Evidencing your constructive criticism
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

17. Planning for Developing Practice
Increasing knowledge and skill
Critically reflecting on own decision making
Understanding the perspectives of others
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University

18. Key Messages Unnecessary mistakes in risk judgements can arise from
Methodological error
Human error
Systemic error
Both individuals and organisations have to take responsibility for minimising error
Centrality of Public Protection
Kemshall, H., Mackenzie, G. & Wilkinson, B. (2011) Risk of Harm Guidance and Training Resources CD ROM. De Montfort University