1. 75th Plenary Meeting of the ICAC
The Role of Governments in the Cotton Industry: First, do no Harm
Terry Townsend
Cotton Analytics
75th Plenary Meeting of the ICAC
Islamabad
October/November 2016

2. WORLD WOOL PRODUCTION, MMT
Million tons
Wool production, clean basis, all kinds carpet and fine wools, totaled 1.9 million tons in three decades later it is 1.2 million tons, a decline of one third.
-1.7%/year.
There is no reason the same cannot occur to cotton.

3. World cotton mill use rose by 286,000 tons/year between 1950 and 2007/08 and reached 26.7 million tons.
The current forecast for mill use during 2016/17 is 23.9 million tons. Thus, nine years later, despite population growth of 10% or 650 million and real GDP growth of 18%, world cotton use is still approximately 3 million tons less than its pre-recession peak.
An extrapolation of the 5-decade trend would be 25.8 million tons in 2016/17, a difference of nearly 2 million tons from the current forecast level.

5. Innovation took cotton from 200 Lbs/ac to 900 Lbs/ac
Mendelian breeding
Mechanization
Fertilizers
Pesticides
Biotechnology
8 kgs gain per year
Data are from the United States,
With research into new biotech traits stalled, and
With no new breakthrough technology under development,
The outlook for increased cotton yields the rest of this decade is bleak.
Zero gain per year

6. Partnership for Sustainable Textiles
Cotton is Destructive & Exploitative

7. First, Do No Harm Role of Governments: No Polyester Subsidies
Sound Science in Evaluation of Cotton Production Practices