1. SE503 Advanced Project Management
Dr. Ahmed Sameh, Ph.D.
Professor, CS & IS
Project Management Issues

2. History 1960’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Agile PM
PERT, CPM, Monte Carlo simulation
1980’s
Personal computers, PM software
Teams, TQM, Concurrent Engineering
1990’s
Widespread use of MS-Project
Critical Chain PM
Fuzzy Critical Path Method
2000 Agile PM
Nothing has happened in 40 years?

3. Some PM Issues From “Critical Chain” Chapters 1-10
Will serve as a set of problems that we need to solve
Will explore tools to solve these

4. Project Management is Relevant
Much of what we do at work (or home) are projects
Most projects fail to meet:
Scope expectations
Budget expectations
Schedule expectations
How do we define project success?

5. The Schedule is a Worthy Goal
Finishing on time (or early) can be worth a large amount of money
Economic benefits
Market entry (new product)
Finishing late can dramatically reduce project economic benefits
Is schedule the most important aspect?

6. Uncertainty is the Culprit
Uncertainty leads to overestimation
Tasks expand to consume the available time/money
Student’s syndrome
Parkinson’s law
Are tasks really overestimated by %?
Can we improve behavior?

7. Gaussian Model Does Not Fit PM
Normal curve is symmetrical
Project variables are usually skewed
Normal curve is infinite
Most project variables have a practical minimum
Most project variables have a practical maximum

8. Better Choices Beta distribution (PERT)
Triangle distribution (approximation)
How do we estimate the parameters?

9. Focusing on Cost is not Enough
Cost cutting often comes at the expense of schedule or quality
Reducing cost can damage the overall economic performance of a project
How does this happen?

10. Early Start or Late Start?
Early start (Push)
Start all tasks as soon as possible
Protects against delays
Traditional method
Late Start (JIT)
Start all tasks as late as possible
Improves focus on tasks
Maximizes return on investment
Minimizes damage, loss, effects of change
Which is best?

11. Progress Reporting is Flawed
Progress is often non-linear (80/20)
Reports should focus on what remains, not what has been done (time, not %)
Progress reporting causes people to lose focus on the overall goal
Is this true?
Why does it happen?

12. Summary Most projects fail to meet objectives
Traditional project management is flawed
Estimating
Focus on cost
Progress reporting
Human behavior
Uncertainty cannot be ignored