1. Topic 8 – The Future of Globalization
A – The Limits of Globalization
B – The Paradigms of Sustainability

2. Global Studies: Three Core Dimensions
Trade, production and finance. Development.
Multinational corporations.
Economic
From intermittent to continual change
From isolation to interconnectedness
From biculturalism to multiculturalism
Social Cultural
Political
Economic blocs.
International/supranational organizations.
Environment. Conflicts.
Global brands and products.
Global culture.

3. Global Studies: Globalization in Question
Globalization is more than an assembly of nations
In a national system governments retain an amount of control over their affairs.
Influence on:
Domestic production, employment, prices, and income.
To abide to national culture, history, and policies.
Global forces can affect the prices of national imports and the demand for national exports.
With globalization flows (goods, people and information) dominate.
Greater impact on production and prices within nations.

4. Global Studies: Globalization in Question
Driving forces
Technological improvements, particularly in transportation and telecommunications.
Desire by people and corporations to take advantage of the opportunities provided by globalization:
Employment, trade, migration, investment.
Lower barriers to trade, migration and investment.
Composition
The real economy: Actors work, consume, invest within national boundaries.
The borderless economy: Actors develop connections beyond national boundaries.
The virtual economy: Actors virtually transact for digital and physical goods.

5. A – The Limits of Globalization
Demography and Society
Economy
Conflicts and Governance
Resources and Environment
Technology

6. Demography and Society
Fertility
Most important factor.
Total fertility rate expected to drop from 2.5 in 2010 to 2.1 in 2050 (from 5.0 in 1950).
Life expectancy
Expected to increase from 69 to 76 years.
Age structure
Increase in the average age from 28 to 37 years.
Religion
Muslims have the highest fertility level.
Migration
Does not change the total population, but the demographic composition of countries.

7. Scenarios of Global Population Growth, 2009-2050
Urbanization.
Shifting demographic balance between developing and developed countries.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

8. World Population by Age Group, 1950-2050
Shifting Demographic Balance between young and old.
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,

9. Key Indicators Provide a Positive Outlook
Source: Our World in Data

10. The maturity of globalization?
Economy
The maturity of globalization?
Lower trade growth?
Less offshoring?
Weakening comparative advantages?
Declining profits?
A growth in protectionism?
Poverty and inequality
Participation or exclusion?
Confiscation and redistribution?

11. Conflicts and Governance
Changes in the source of conflicts.
From geopolitics to resources.
From nation states to groups (social, ethnic, religious).
New forms of violence:
Terrorism.
Bio-terrorism.
Cyber-terrorism.
Asymmetric warfare.
Governance
Which level of supranationalism?
Global governance (common policies for common causes).
Regional autonomy (regional issues and cultural / political differences).

12. A Three Sector Word: Businesses, Governments and Civil Society
Organizational form
For profit
Governmental
Non-profit
Goods produced
Private
Public
Group
Primary control agent
Owners
Voters / Rulers
Communities
Primary power form
Capital
Laws, policies, taxation
Tradition, values
Primary goals
Wealth creation
Societal order
Expression of values
Assessment frame
Profitability
Legality
Justice
Resources
Assets, technical knowledge, production skills
Tax revenue, policy knowledge, regulatory and enforcement power
Community knowledge, inspirational leadership
Weaknesses
Short-term focus, lack of concern for external impacts
Bureaucratic, slow-moving, poorly coordinated internally
Amateurish, lack of financial resources, narrow perspective
Source: Adapted from Steven Waddell, “Core Competences: A Key Force in Business-Government-Civil Society Collaborations,” Journal of Corporate Citizenship, Autumn 2002, pp , Tables 1 and 2.

13. Resources and Environment
Scarcity or abundance?
Food.
Energy.
Raw materials.
Energy transition
Which energy system?
The environmental challenge
Fear mongering versus real issues.
Development versus environmentalism.

14. World Annual Oil Production (1900-2015) and Peak Oil (2010)
Source: Worldwatch Institute. Data updated with the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

15. Unfolding of the IT revolution
Technology
Unfolding of the IT revolution
Ubiquity (access and accessibility).
Bandwidth (multimedia).
Efficient transactions.
Mobility
Shared mobility?
Peak mobility?
The material world
Production (robotisation).
Consumption (consumerism).
Construction (new materials).

17. Technology and the Future of Work
Currently demonstrated technologies
Could automate 45% of the activities people are paid to perform.
High automation potential
Manufacturing activities (60%).
Food service and accommodations (75%).
Retail work (50%).
Low automation potential
Education.
Healthcare, especially task requiring direct contact with patients, like dental hygienist.
'Knowledge work‘, including management jobs.

19. B – The Paradigms of Global Sustainability
Sustainable World

20. Sustainability “Sustainable”
Maintenance of a process without exhaustion or collapse.
Intra and Inter-generational issue.
Capacity of a system to accommodate changes:
Rates of use of renewable resources should not exceed their rates or regeneration.
Rates of use of non-renewable resources should not exceed at which renewable substitutes are developed.
Rates of pollution emissions should not exceed the assimilative capacity of the environment.
The 340 generations of humanity
Current Generation
Generations to
come

21. Sustainability; The Three “E”s
Sustainable Development
Social Equity
Economic Efficiency
Environmental Responsibility
Living conditions
Access to opportunity
Social cohesion
International consensus
Maintenance of human capital
Economic growth
Efficiency and competitiveness
Flexibility and stability
Production / consumption
Employment
International trade
Consumption of resources
Materials and wastes
Risks
Rate of change
Natural and cultural landscape
Source: Adapted from: Measuring Sustainable Development, Insights into MONET – the Swiss monitoring system, Neuchâtel, August

22. Sustainable World Population
Lessen population growth and stabilize it (preferably).
Stop subsidizing reproduction.
Access to contraception and family planning (freedom of choice).
Basic material needs satisfied (social obligation?).
Political and gender equity.
Access to information and education.
Migration cannot mitigate demographic pressures.

23. Sustainable World Ecology Energy
Restoration the biological base (soils, forests, atmosphere and hydrosphere).
Agriculture supporting ecosystems (diversity and organic recycling).
Energy
Transition out of fossil fuels (market forces are likely to do so).
Shift to natural gas as an interim measure.
Diversification towards renewable energy sources (hydrogen, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and hydroelectric).

24. Sustainable World Economy Spatial forms
Promotion of efficiency and recycling (circular economy).
Source materials mainly recycled materials.
Reduce wastes in production, packaging and distribution.
Economy like an ecosystem.
Dematerialization of the economy.
Spatial forms
Rational use of space (market forces).
Dense and compact cities (effective?).
Multifamily dwellings (choice?).
Alternative transportation modes:
Leaning on mass transit, cycling and walking.
More ideological than practical.

25. Sustainable World Social norms Governance
Material sufficiency and frugality:
Replacing consumerism and materialism (unlikely).
Living according to one’s means / stop in credit driven consumption (likely).
Social status and accumulation (unlikely).
Balance between individual rights and obligations:
End of social welfare and the irresponsibility it creates?
Governance
Governments do not create wealth; they redistribute existing wealth.
The temptation of taxation (for what purpose?).
Less government and more individual initiative.
Avoid socialism and fascism (especially “world improvers”).

26. Drivers Challenging Global Sustainability
Resources
Increased demands for finite natural resources.
Security
Globalization and environmental degradation pose new security threats to an already insecure world.
Impacts on the vulnerability of ecosystems and societies, and the least resilient ecosystems.
The livelihoods of the poorest communities are most at risk.
Consumption
Increase in consumption, from basic to complex goods.
Equity
Increase in inequality within and between societies.

27. The Futures of Humanity (Global Scenario Group)
Gross World Product
(trillion $US)
Conventional Worlds
250
200
Balanced growth
Transformed Worlds
Reference
150
New Sustainability Paradigm
Eco-communalism
100
Source: Adapted from A. Hammond, Which World?: Scenarios for the 21st Century , World Resources Institute.
John Bellamy Foster, The Ecological Revolution: Making Peace with the Planet (New York: Monthly Review Press, 2009).
Fortress World 50
Barbarization
2000
Breakdown 4 6 8 10 12
World population (in billions)

28. 1. Conventional Worlds Conventional Development scenario Consequences
Situation left as it is.
Solution led to market mechanisms.
Little or no collective efforts.
Limited success of birth control policies.
Generation of wealth, but unfair distribution.
Consequences
Growth of inequalities and environmental degradation.
Potential instability and environmental collapse.
Global Scenarios Group Scenarios by SEI et al

29. 1. Conventional Worlds Balanced Growth Consequences
Legislation and policy intervention:
Strengthen management systems.
Ensure widespread use of better technology.
Provide greater social equity and environment protection.
Same patterns of production and consumption.
Notions of global governance.
Consequences
Less demographic growth and environmental damage.
May not be enough to curb major global environmental issues.
Socialism.

30. 2. Barbarization Breakdown Consequences Neo-Malthusian perspective.
Case of destructive anarchy.
Governmental and social failures from the periphery to the core.
“Mad Max” scenario.
Consequences
Environmental and social deterioration:
Scarcity, violence, and massive migration.
Unchecked population growth.
Economic collapse:
Drastic fall in global population levels.
Loss of institutions, productive capacity, and technology.

31. 2030 Breakdown Scenario 1900 2000 2030 2100 Breakdown Life expectancy
Natural resources
Oil production
Population
Industrial output
Food
Pollution

32. 2. Barbarization Fortress World Consequences
Authoritarian “solution”; the periphery collapses but the core holds.
Conflicts between the rich and the poor:
A minority of the elite in privileged enclaves.
Protect their way of life by forcibly imposing limits and social controls on the impoverished majority.
Seizing control of critical natural resources for exclusive use.
Restricting access to information and technology.
Consequences
Unchecked demographic growth.
Social stratification.
Instability of a “Fortress” system may push the world into a “Breakdown” situation.

33. 3. Great Transitions Eco-communalism Consequences
Deep green utopian vision.
Strong collective efforts towards small-scale.
Emphasis:
Bio-regionalism.
Localism and face-to-face democracy.
Small technology and economic autarky.
Consequences
Population and economic scales diminish.
Environmental conditions improve dramatically.
Socialism/communism?

34. 3. Great Transitions New Sustainability Paradigm Consequences
Change the industrial civilization.
Achieving sustainability at the global level:
Every activity most demonstrate sustainability.
More equitable global civilization rather than to retreat into localism.
Consequences
Dramatic decrease of per capita material flows:
Through behavioral changes and technology improvements.
High-quality environment.
Well-distributed welfare with economic activities oriented towards services.

35. Essay: The Future of Globalization
Source: Financial Times
Globalization is a continuously evolving issue. Discuss what could be the limits of globalization and how could the global economy evolve over the next half century.