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European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

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Presentation on theme: "European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts"— Presentation transcript:

1 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
The Global Observing System and the evolving requirements for Numerical Weather Prediction and Reanalysis E. Källén, ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

2 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
THE STRENGTH OF A COMMON GOAL ECMWF’s purpose is to develop a capability for medium-range weather forecasting and to provide such weather forecasts to the Member and Co- operating States ECMWF is complementary to the National Meteorological Services and works with them in research, numerical weather predictions, supercomputing and training. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

3 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ECMWF forecast quality improvement Day when NH 500 hPa anomaly correlation drops below 60% European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

4 HRES headline score: 500 hPa height anomaly correlation
ERA-Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

5 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
THE STRENGTH OF A COMMON GOAL Forecast targets by 2025 Ensemble predictions of high impact weather up to two weeks ahead Seamless approach, aiming towards predictions of large scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead and global-scale anomalies up to a year ahead European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

6 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
THE STRENGTH OF A COMMON GOAL Goals Research at frontiers of knowledge Ensemble-based analyses and predictions that raise the international bar for quality and operational reliability European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

7 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
THE STRENGTH OF A COMMON GOAL How do we achieve these goals? Observations High resolution ensemble Earth-system Scalability Funding People European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

8 TCo1279 total column liquid water (12h simulation at 9 km)
TCo1279 orography (hydrostatic, with deep convection parametrization, 450s time-step, 240 Broadwell nodes, ~0.75s per timestep)

9 TCo7999 total column liquid water (12h simulation at 1.3 km)
The latest spectral transform model news … TCo7999 orography (hydrostatic, no deep convection parametrization, 120s time-step, 960 Broadwell nodes, ~10s per timestep) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

10 Impact of ocean coupling and ocean observations
CERA-20C compared to extra experiments for geopotential height in MAM 2010 Ocean coupling in CERA improves atmospheric analysis and forecast (comparison with an atmospheric-only system) Ocean observations in CERA improve atmospheric analysis and forecast (comparison with a CERA system withholding all ocean observations)

11 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Forecast sensitivity (FSO) of major observing systems in ECMWF operations European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

12 Assimilated microwave radiances
50 GHz, temperature sounding 118 GHz, temperature sounding 183 GHz, humidity sounding Imager channels

13 Assimilated microwave radiances (17 instruments)
50 GHz, temperature sounding 118 GHz, temperature sounding 6 AMSU-A, 1 ATMS (clear-sky) 1 MWHS-2 (all-sky) 183 GHz, humidity sounding Imager channels 4 MHS, 2 SSMI/S, 1 MWHS-2 (all-sky) 1 ATMS, 1 MWHS (clear-sky) 1 SSMI/S, 1 AMSR-2, 1 GMI (all-sky)

14 Radiosonde data coverage
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

15 Radiosonde data coverage
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

16 Aircraft wind data – quality and numbers Operational use
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

17 Aircraft wind data – quality and numbers Reanalysis use
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

18 Aircraft humidity data
Humidity quality good, general impact small, slightly positive impact for precipitation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

19 Aeolus Doppler wind Lidar (launch 2017) (ESA Earth Explorer Mission)

20 Aeolus u-wind profile impacts
NWP impact experiment Aeolus u-wind profile impacts Horanyi et al., 2014

21 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Summary ECMWF strategy goals: High impact weather two weeks ahead Regime transitions four weeks ahead Global scale anomalies one year ahead Earth System Observations Ocean-atmosphere coupled assimilation showing potential Microwave radiances primary observation source Better use of conventional observations European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts


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