1. Eurasian Regionalisms and the East Asian Community
Dr. Mikhail A. Molchanov
Associate Professor of Political Science
St. Thomas University, Canada

2. Research questions and definitions
What is Eurasian regionalism?
Politically steered, top-down process
Economic, social, political (re)integration of several postcommunist states from Belarus to China
Reaction to economic challenges and security dilemmas of the global age
As much about identity as it is about political economy.
Theories
IR realism: an update on classic alliance politics; Russia’s efforts neoimperialist in nature
IR liberalism: a stepping stone to a global market
NR (Hettne; Shaw/Söderbaum): response to globalization

3. Eurasian regionalisms more than 1
Typifying RI moves
Bandwagoning (the Baltic states  the EU; central Asians  ECO)
Externally induced (GUAM-Community of Democratic Choice-ODED)
Endogenous to the region (CIS, EurAsEC, CSTO, SCO)
Russia-centered, China-centered, peripheral
Subregionalism
OCAC, EurAsEC, BSEC
R-B Union, CES, Customs Union, Eurasian Union
GUAM vs. CSTO?
Competing claims
Identity: European or Eurasian?
Orientations: pro-western or not?

4. Russian foreign policy turning East
Putin’s involvement in the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) saga: China vs Japan
The IC in the BRIC
Eurasian integration – key theme of the 2012 presidential campaign
Membership in regional clubs as a power tool
Oil and gas interests in Central Asia/Caspian
Afghanistan and CSTO
CRRF (19,000)
US/NATO presence in the area
China’s penetration of Central Asia:
Kazakh oil since 2006
Turkmen gas since 2009

5. Russia, China and the SCO
SCO est. 2001: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan (from confidence bldg measures)
Objectives: peace, security, stability; development; a just international order; vs. terrorism, separatism and extremism
Inter-bank consortium: China provided $900 mln before 2009; $10 bln offer in 2009; $12 bln in new loans in 2011
Rejects Russia’s attempts to add a military dimension
Anti-western alliance? “Dictators' club“? A new “geopolitical axis”? Russia’s cushion or an instrument of China’s expansion?
Neither Russia nor China provide a principal engine to the Eurasian integration at the moment

7. Eurasian regionalism: development and security
New regionalism: RI as a cushion against current crisis of global capitalism
Requires a developmental state
Becomes a factor in provision of regional security: SCO, CSTO
Bolsters legitimacy of non-democratic governments; helps regimes’ survival
Joint opposition to the U.S. unilateralism
Common values (Eastern Orthodoxy-Islam-Confucianism): collectivism, statism, equity, and community
Challenges
Russia-China
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan
No benevolent hegemon

8. Eyeing an East Asian Community
Russian FP priorities
preservation of sovereignty & security, accumulation of wealth; restoration of Russia’s global status and relevance
Trade growth as a vehicle
exports to China grew 4 times in 8 years ( )
to Japan 3 times in
To Korea more than tenfold in
However, the total share of NE Asia in Russia’s foreign trade remains small: 13.6% (EU- 52%; CIS – 15% in 2007; APEC total – 24% in 2011)

9. Russia’s exports to the countries of NE Asia (US$ mln in current prices)

10. Russia and East Asian Community
Attempts to build ties with Asian Regional Forum
Japan’s ideas on the East Asian community, but:
Medvedev did not go to 6th East Asia summit in 2011
Showcasing 2012 APEC summit in Vladivostok
needs investments to modernize the Far East region
bilateralism does not help (cf. ESPO’s checkered history)
regional economic integration a key theme
The federal Strategy in Asia-Pacific Region prepared
Sakhalin I, II – Japanese Sodeco, Mitsui, Mitsubishi
Sakhalin–Khabarovsk–Vladivostok gas pipeline for ROK

11. Conclusions Eurasian regionalism – a priority for RFP
Advantages: growth, status, trade expansion
Disadvantages: China may take the lead; regional responsibility in Central Asia
Who will be the paymaster is the key
Either a new “smart power” (Nazarbayev) or a lifeline for authoritarian regimes
Eurasian regionalism must be open to the world outside (an “open regionalism” model)

12. Thank you!