1. Probabilistic Live bate Fishing
Tim Ott, Jack Moore,
Raghavender PN,
Sandeep Reddy
MS&E 220

2. Is there still bait on my hook?
PROBLEM: Should the fisherman reel in and check his hook?
Rechecking the bait on a hook too frequently lowers total fishing time and number of fish caught
Not checking enough means you might be fishing with a hook and no bait
SOLUTION: Dynamic Equations & Probability
In discrete time intervals, dynamic equations can help identify a optimal time interval to re-check hook if no fish have been hooked, as well as forecasted expected total catch
Solution varies by frequency of bites fish (p) and probability of fishing being caught if it nibbles on bait (q)

3. Result: More Fish, Less Doubt
*Optimal interval: 11 minutes
In this scenario, fish bite bait every 10 min on average, and 7 in 10 that bite get hooked. Reeling in optimally, which is every 11 min if no fish is hooked, can double catch compared to less patient approach
Frequency of reel in time (in minutes)

4. Model Extensions
Consideration of a “rookie factor” of losing bait immediately upon cast
Calculation of expected catch and optimal patience if some fish are too small to keep